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Prof Abdon Atangana develops new concept to test Ebola waves

05 September 2022 | Story Andrè Damons | Photo Andrè Damons

With a new outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported this year in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – the 14th EVD outbreak in the country – researchers at the University of the Free State (UFS) introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. They believe the focus should be to identify the source or the hosts of this virus for it to be a complete eradication.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Ministry of Health in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared an outbreak of Ebola in Mbandaka health zone, Equateur Province on April 23, 2022. EVD, formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, is a severe, often fatal illness affecting humans and other primates. The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals (such as fruit bats, porcupines and non-human primates) and then spreads in the human population through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with these fluids, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS), says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. Predictions help lawmakers to take decisions that will help protect their citizens and their environments. The outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases have exposed the weakness of these models as they failed to predict the number of waves and in several instances; they failed to predict accurately day-to-day new infections, daily deaths and recoveries.

Solving the challenges of the current models

In the case of COVID-19 in South Africa, it is predicted that the country had far more infections than what was recorded, which is due to challenges faced by the medical facilities, poverty, inequality, and other factors. With Ebola in the DRC, data recorded are not far from reality due to the nature of the virus and its symptoms. However, the predictions show although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spread, they will still face some challenges in the future, as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact.

“To solve the challenges with the current models, we suggested a new methodology. We suggested that each class should be divided into two subclasses (Detected and undetected) and we also suggested that rates of infection, recovery, death and vaccination classes should be a function of time not constant as suggested previously. These rates are obtained from what we called daily indicator functions. For example, an infection rate should be obtained from recorded data with the addition of an uncertain function that represents non-recorded data (Here more work is still to be done to get a better approximation).

“I introduced a new concept called strength number that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. The strength number is an accelerative force that helps to provide speed changes, thus if this number is less than zero we have deceleration, meaning there will be a decline in the number of infections. If the number is positive, we have acceleration, meaning we will have an increase in numbers. If the number is zero, the current situation will remain the same,” according to Prof Atangana.

To provide better prediction, he continues, reliable data are first fitted with the suggested mathematical model. This helps them to know if their mathematical model is replicating the dynamic process of the spread. The next step is to predict future events, to do this, we create three sub-daily indicator functions (minimum, actual, and maximum). These will lead to three systems, the first system represents the worst-case scenario, the second is the actual scenario, and the last is a best-case scenario.

Virus will continue to spread but with less impact

Using this method, Prof Atangana, a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says he and Dr Seda Igret Araz, postdoctoral student, were able to predict that, although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spreads, they will still face some challenges in the future as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact.

To properly achieve the conversion from observed facts into mathematical formulations and to address these limitations, he had to ask fundamental questions such as what is the rate of infection, what is the strength of the infection, what are the crossover patterns presented by the spread, how can day-to-day new infected numbers be predicted and what differential operator should be used to model a dynamic process followed by the spread?

This approach was tested for several infectious diseases where we present the case of Ebola in Congo and Covid-19 in South Africa.

News Archive

Getting out of the dark

2015-04-28

Photo: Leonie Bolleurs

Since 2008, the University of the Free State has been busy with the planning and implementation of projects to reduce the impact of load shedding. To date, the cost of these projects has run to R6 million. They have been done primarily to ensure that the academic programme does not suffer damage as a result of the increasing interruptions in the power supply that are continuing this year.

The university’s greatest concern has been the provision of emergency power to the lecture halls and laboratories.

Thus far, 35 generators are servicing 55 buildings on the three campuses of the UFS. This includes 26 generators on the Bloemfontein Campus, eight on the Qwaqwa Campus in the Eastern Free State, and one generator on the South Campus in Bloemfontein. The generators are already in service, and are maintained in working order.

Since 2010, the university has also ensured that all newly-built academic buildings are equipped with emergency power supplies.

On the South Campus in Bloemfontein, the new lecture-hall building and the computer laboratory are equipped with emergency power, while the installation of emergency generators in other buildings is under way. The majority of the buildings on the Qwaqwa Campus in the Eastern Free State are equipped with emergency power supplies.

In the meantime, the UFS management has approved a further R11 million for the installation of additional generators on the three campuses. A further R1.5 million has also been approved for the purchase of two mobile generators.

To extend the work already done, the main task will be the installation of more generators on the Bloemfontein Campus to ensure that lecture halls with emergency power will be available for the centrally-arranged timetables, and to ensure that more of the critical laboratories will be provided with emergency power.

There are still some important buildings and halls on the Bloemfontein Campus that must be supplied with emergency power. However, it is a costly process and must be brought into operation gradually. The further implementation of emergency power depends on the delivery of equipment. The university is also investigating alternative solutions for power provisioning, including solar power.

Generators with spare capacity are optimally deployed to satisfy the lower needs of the campus, including the Odeion, the ANNEX at Microbiology, the Stabilis ANNEX, the Agriculture Building, the UV-Sasol library, and the Francois Retief Building.

In addition, the UFS is busy on all campuses, coupling area lighting, including

street lights and pedestrian walkways, to existing generators. Procedures for the operation of mechanical equipment, such as entrance gates, lifts, and so on, are currently being dealt with on all campuses. Continuous power sources for certain ICT equipment will be installed on all campuses to protect it against power surges.

Staff and students can also equip themselves with the necessary knowledge to manage load shedding in their specific areas of work and study. It is always helpful to know who to contact. The following list with guidelines and contact numbers has been compiled to assist you:

1. In an emergency, call Protection Services. This line will continue to operate, regardless of whether the power is on or off.
2. Avoid using lifts just before planned load shedding. Some lifts have emergency power packs which will bring the lift to the nearest floor and open the doors. If you still get stuck in a lift during a power outage, use your cellphone to call Protection Services. While you're waiting, stay calm and be patient.
3. If the access control systems in your building stop working after load shedding, contact Protection Services.
4. The students and staff members who are most at risk during load shedding are those in wheelchairs or with other mobility limitations. As far as possible, plan ahead to avoid being stuck on a floor or in a room that is difficult to access when load shedding is imminent. Please contact Protection Services if you need assistance.
5. During a fire, alarms WILL go off. Alarms are not power driven, but battery driven. For assistance, contact Protection Services.
6. The main UFS Switchboard (Bloemfontein Campus +27(0)51 401 9111 and Qwaqwa Campus +27(0)58 718 5000) will continue to operate during load shedding.

Contact details of Protection Services:

Bloemfontein Campus: +27(0)51 401 2634/2911
Qwaqwa Campus: +27(0)58 508 5460/5175
South Campus: +27(0)51 5051217

Communication and Brand Management will make information available on the UFS web, Facebook page, Twitter, Blackboard and the intranet. Get the load shedding schedule from Eskom’s webpage (http://loadshedding.eskom.co.za/). The Bloemfontein Campus falls in group 4 and the South Campus falls in group 2 in Centlec’s load shedding schedule.

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