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05 September 2022 | Story Andrè Damons | Photo Andrè Damons
Prof Abdon Atangana
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS) and a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. It is for this reason he introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves.
With a new outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported this year in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – the 14th EVD outbreak in the country – researchers at the University of the Free State (UFS) introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. They believe the focus should be to identify the source or the hosts of this virus for it to be a complete eradication. 

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Ministry of Health in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared an outbreak of Ebola in Mbandaka health zone, Equateur Province on April 23, 2022. EVD, formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, is a severe, often fatal illness affecting humans and other primates. The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals (such as fruit bats, porcupines and non-human primates) and then spreads in the human population through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with these fluids, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).
 
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS), says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. Predictions help lawmakers to take decisions that will help protect their citizens and their environments. The outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases have exposed the weakness of these models as they failed to predict the number of waves and in several instances; they failed to predict accurately day-to-day new infections, daily deaths and recoveries.

Solving the challenges of the current models

In the case of COVID-19 in South Africa, it is predicted that the country had far more infections than what was recorded, which is due to challenges faced by the medical facilities, poverty, inequality, and other factors. With Ebola in the DRC, data recorded are not far from reality due to the nature of the virus and its symptoms. However, the predictions show although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spread, they will still face some challenges in the future, as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

“To solve the challenges with the current models, we suggested a new methodology. We suggested that each class should be divided into two subclasses (Detected and undetected) and we also suggested that rates of infection, recovery, death and vaccination classes should be a function of time not constant as suggested previously. These rates are obtained from what we called daily indicator functions. For example, an infection rate should be obtained from recorded data with the addition of an uncertain function that represents non-recorded data (Here more work is still to be done to get a better approximation).

“I introduced a new concept called strength number that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. The strength number is an accelerative force that helps to provide speed changes, thus if this number is less than zero we have deceleration, meaning there will be a decline in the number of infections. If the number is positive, we have acceleration, meaning we will have an increase in numbers. If the number is zero, the current situation will remain the same,” according to Prof Atangana. 

To provide better prediction, he continues, reliable data are first fitted with the suggested mathematical model. This helps them to know if their mathematical model is replicating the dynamic process of the spread. The next step is to predict future events, to do this, we create three sub-daily indicator functions (minimum, actual, and maximum). These will lead to three systems, the first system represents the worst-case scenario, the second is the actual scenario, and the last is a best-case scenario.

Virus will continue to spread but with less impact

Using this method, Prof Atangana, a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says he and Dr Seda Igret Araz, postdoctoral student, were able to predict that, although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spreads, they will still face some challenges in the future as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

To properly achieve the conversion from observed facts into mathematical formulations and to address these limitations, he had to ask fundamental questions such as what is the rate of infection, what is the strength of the infection, what are the crossover patterns presented by the spread, how can day-to-day new infected numbers be predicted and what differential operator should be used to model a dynamic process followed by the spread?

This approach was tested for several infectious diseases where we present the case of Ebola in Congo and Covid-19 in South Africa.  

News Archive

Access to the Bloemfontein Campus
2015-04-02

Access Control Made Easy

The first phase of access control at the University of the Free State (UFS) was implemented in August 2014. The aim of this initiative is to tighten security measures on the Bloemfontein Campus.
 
Since November 2014, access control has been implemented at all five gates on the Bloemfontein Campus. These are:

  • The Main gate in Nelson Mandela Drive (Gate 1)
  • The gate in DF Malherbe Drive (Gate 5)
  • The gate in Wynand Mouton Drive (Gate 3) 
  • The gate in Furstenburg Street (Gate 4)
  • The gate in Badenhorst Street (Gate 2)

Here is some useful information about the access control system:

1. Remember your access card when you enter the campus

Dual-function cards (with distance reader compatibility) will make your movement through the gates more convenient. The university’s access system works automatically with remote or swipe action. Please make sure that you drive close to the reader or, better still, get the dual-frequency card to manage the distance between your vehicle and the remote card reader.

As of 23 March 2015, the extra security staff, who have been assisting at the gates since the implementation of access control on the Bloemfontein Campus, are no longer manning the card readers at the gates. Therefore, persons without cards will be able to enter the campus only at the one gate in DF Malherbe Drive where the Visitors Centre is situated. They will be referred to the Visitors Centre, where a day visitor’s card will be issued to them. You will need to produce a formal identification document (e.g. ID book, driver's licence).

Security will continue their normal duties at the guardhouses for the various gates on the campus.

2. Where do I get an access card?

You can apply at the university’s Visitors Centre front desk by producing your positive identification (ID book/passport/driver’s licence) and proof of payment for your access card.

You will then be directed to the Thakaneng Bridge where you will be able to collect your access card.

  • Go to the Cashier on the Thakaneng Bridge and pay your R65 for the dual-frequency card
  • Take your receipt, together with your existing card (if you have one), to the Card Division on the Thakaneng Bridge (next to Mellins Optometrists)
  • A new photo will be taken of you at the Card Office for your new card. Your new card will then be issued immediately.

Currently, there is a sufficient stock of the dual-frequency cards available at the Card Division on the Thakaneng Bridge.
 
Alternatively, you can apply online for your access card: http://apps.ufs.ac.za/cardapplication/application.aspx

Make sure you have the following documents ready to attach when completing the online form:

  • Copy of positive identification: ID/Driver's Licence/Passport
  • Signed declaration (http://supportservices.ufs.ac.za/dl/Userfiles/Documents/00007/4668_eng.pdf) by your service provider/employer (if you are a service provider) or a letter of confirmation from your spouse/partner/relative/coach/relevant UFS staff member or student in cases where you have to visit, pick-up or drop off your spouse/partner/relative frequently on the UFS Bloemfontein Campus.

Cost: R65 for a long-term card and free of charge for short-term visits and conference delegates. Pay at the Cashier on the Thakaneng Bridge or at Absa Bank, Account Number: 1 570 8500 71, Ref: 1 413 07670 0198.

3. Cutoff Date: 7 April 2015

After 7 April 2015, no pedestrian or motorist will be able to enter the campus without a valid access card. Persons without access cards will have to enter the campus at the gate in DF Malherbe Drive where the Visitors Centre is situated. You will then be referred to the Visitors Centre where you will have to apply for a day visitor’s card. It is important to note that no one will be able to enter the campus at the Visitors Centre without a formal identification document (e.g. ID book, driver's licence).

4. Dual-frequency card simplifies access to the campus

It is important to have your card ready on entering the campus.

This card will simplify access to the campus considerably, as the card reader will read the card when it is held in a vertical position at the driver’s side window in the direction of the distance reader. Please do not place the card on the dashboard. There is an antenna wire in the card. If the card is placed on the dashboard, you are not exposing the card surface to the reader, and that might influence the antenna’s response to the reader.

Remember, the distance between the reader and the boom is only a few metres.  If you approach the reader at a ’high’ speed, you are not allowing the system to identify your card, match it to the entry in the database, check if you are ‘legal’, and then send a signal to open the boom. 

All five gates are equipped with distance readers. Within the next three weeks, two extra distance readers will also be installed at the Main Gate in Nelson Mandela Drive.
 
Please note that the dual-frequency card is needed only when you enter the campus with a vehicle and you want to activate the distance reader. All the older cards will continue to work at the tag readers. 

5. Use alternative gates

At times, some of the gates carry more traffic than others, especially with the peak morning and afternoon traffic. Gates with less traffic include:

  • The gate in Badenhorst Street
  • The gate in DF Malherbe Drive
  • The gate in Nelson Mandela Drive

You are welcome to make use of one of these alternative gates.

6. Pedestrians

No pedestrian will be able to enter the Bloemfontein Campus without a valid access card. If you have left your card at home or have lost it, you should enter the campus at the gate in DF Malherbe Drive where the Visitors Centre is situated. You will be referred to the Visitors Centre where you can apply for a day visitor’s card. You will still need to produce a formal identification document (e.g. ID book, driver's licence).

7. More information

Email: visitorscentre@ufs.ac.za
Visitors Centre front desk: Tel: +27 51 401 7766 (Mondays-Fridays 07:45-16:30)
Card Division: Tel: +27 51 401 2799 (Mondays-Fridays 07:45-16:30)
Protection Services duty room: +27 51 401 2634 (24 hours)

 

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