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05 September 2022 | Story Andrè Damons | Photo Andrè Damons
Prof Abdon Atangana
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS) and a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. It is for this reason he introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves.

With a new outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported this year in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – the 14th EVD outbreak in the country – researchers at the University of the Free State (UFS) introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. They believe the focus should be to identify the source or the hosts of this virus for it to be a complete eradication. 

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Ministry of Health in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared an outbreak of Ebola in Mbandaka health zone, Equateur Province on April 23, 2022. EVD, formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, is a severe, often fatal illness affecting humans and other primates. The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals (such as fruit bats, porcupines and non-human primates) and then spreads in the human population through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with these fluids, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).
 
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS), says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. Predictions help lawmakers to take decisions that will help protect their citizens and their environments. The outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases have exposed the weakness of these models as they failed to predict the number of waves and in several instances; they failed to predict accurately day-to-day new infections, daily deaths and recoveries.

Solving the challenges of the current models

In the case of COVID-19 in South Africa, it is predicted that the country had far more infections than what was recorded, which is due to challenges faced by the medical facilities, poverty, inequality, and other factors. With Ebola in the DRC, data recorded are not far from reality due to the nature of the virus and its symptoms. However, the predictions show although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spread, they will still face some challenges in the future, as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

“To solve the challenges with the current models, we suggested a new methodology. We suggested that each class should be divided into two subclasses (Detected and undetected) and we also suggested that rates of infection, recovery, death and vaccination classes should be a function of time not constant as suggested previously. These rates are obtained from what we called daily indicator functions. For example, an infection rate should be obtained from recorded data with the addition of an uncertain function that represents non-recorded data (Here more work is still to be done to get a better approximation).

“I introduced a new concept called strength number that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. The strength number is an accelerative force that helps to provide speed changes, thus if this number is less than zero we have deceleration, meaning there will be a decline in the number of infections. If the number is positive, we have acceleration, meaning we will have an increase in numbers. If the number is zero, the current situation will remain the same,” according to Prof Atangana. 

To provide better prediction, he continues, reliable data are first fitted with the suggested mathematical model. This helps them to know if their mathematical model is replicating the dynamic process of the spread. The next step is to predict future events, to do this, we create three sub-daily indicator functions (minimum, actual, and maximum). These will lead to three systems, the first system represents the worst-case scenario, the second is the actual scenario, and the last is a best-case scenario.

Virus will continue to spread but with less impact

Using this method, Prof Atangana, a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says he and Dr Seda Igret Araz, postdoctoral student, were able to predict that, although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spreads, they will still face some challenges in the future as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

To properly achieve the conversion from observed facts into mathematical formulations and to address these limitations, he had to ask fundamental questions such as what is the rate of infection, what is the strength of the infection, what are the crossover patterns presented by the spread, how can day-to-day new infected numbers be predicted and what differential operator should be used to model a dynamic process followed by the spread?

This approach was tested for several infectious diseases where we present the case of Ebola in Congo and Covid-19 in South Africa.  

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Graduates convene with global leaders at the UFS 2015 Winter Graduation ceremonies
2015-07-07

Dr Hendrik Auret, dr Gerhard Bosman en dr Madelein Stoffberg.
Foto: Leonie Bolleurs

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The University of the Free State’s 2015 Winter Graduations, which took place from 1-2 July 2015 on the Bloemfontein Campus offered several highlights. Three global leaders received honorary doctorates. A further 2 000 degrees and diplomas were conferred to graduates in the seven faculties of the university.

For the first time in the history of the UFS, three PhDs in Architecture were awarded simultaneously. Hendrik Auret, Gerhard Bosman, and Madelein Stoffberg’s outstanding achievements are a milestone in the university’s pursuit of academic excellence.

Furthermore, three PhDs were conferred on graduates from the Department of Consumer Science in the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences. Ismari van der Merwe, Natasha Cronje, and Gloria Seiphetlheng set a precedent when they walked across the Callie Human stage to collect their doctorates at the same graduation ceremony.

This year, the university produced 66 Doctors of Philosophy in various fields of study. Six of these PhDs were awarded in the Department of Physics. Three graduates in the Department of Soil- and Crop- and Climate Sciences received PhDs at the Winter Graduation. They are Tesha Mardamootoo, Elmarie Kotzé, and David Chemei.

Dr John Samuel.
Photo: Johan Roux

Keynote speakers provide enlightenment to graduates

On Wednesday 1 July 2015, Dr John Samuel, SA’s leading education expert, addressed 707 diploma graduates from the Centre for Financial Planning Law and the School of Open Learning. For the graduates’ future reference, Samuel offered invaluable knowledge he had accumulated over the years as Chief Executive of the Nelson Mandela Foundation. “One of the lessons I have learnt was not only the importance of time, but it was in fact what being on time demonstrated,” he said. “Being on time was demonstrating respect, respect for the people you are meeting, and for the occasion.”

On the second day of graduation, Nataniël, South African singer, songwriter, and entertainer spoke to Master’s and doctoral graduates in the Faculties of Economic and Management Sciences, Humanities, Education, Health Sciences, Law, Theology, and Natural and Agricultural Sciences. His keynote spoke to the graduates’ sense of resolve in saying, “nothing is ever accidental. It is always with a purpose, it is your turn to make the world a better place.” He added that “it is important to strive for excellence and to be proud of what you are doing.”

Honorary doctorate recipients in a nutshell

Dr Samuel is one of the three exceptional global leaders to receive honorary doctorates from the university on 1 July 2015. His accolade was presented by the Faculty of Education. He has contributed to the Public Participation Education Network (PPEN) campaign as a founding member. He established the Centre for Education Policy Development, the Joint Working Group (for The National Party Government and the ANC), the National Education Conference, and the National Education and Training Forum. In addition, he made leadership contributions to the First Education and Training White Paper, the first Green Paper on Higher Education, and is the CEO of the Oprah Winfrey Leadership Academy for Girls. The WK Kellogg Foundation in the USA operates under his directorship.

Professor Heidi Hudson, Director of the Centre for Africa Studies at the UFS and Dr Lakhdar Brahimi.
Photo: Mike Rose from Mike Rose Photography

Dr Lakhdar Brahimi received an honorary doctorate from the Centre for Africa Studies. Algerian-born Brahimi was first involved with the United Nations (UN) in 1992, and has since been deployed all over the world on peacekeeping missions. Amongst many other countries, he has worked as a mediator for South Africa, Haiti, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, Burundi, Angola, Liberia, Nigeria, Sudan, and Côte d’Ivoire on behalf of the UN. He also played a direct role in South Africa’s democratic transition as a special representative in 1993/4.

Dr Mercy Amba Oduyoye received an honorary doctorate from the Faculty of Theology. Dr Oduyoye is widely regarded as one of the most influential women theologians in Africa. She was the first black woman to receive a degree in Theology in 1965 from Cambridge University in the United Kingdom. She continues to shift the paradigm of gender in theology internationally as the director of the Institute of African Women in Religion and Culture at the Trinity Theology Seminary in Ghana.

Dr Mercy Oduyoye.
Photo: Johan Roux

In closing the academic celebrations

Vice Rector: Academic, Dr Lis Lange, commended the class of 2014 for making their contribution to the educational system. Prof Jonathan Jansen, Vice Chancellor and Rector, also congratulated the graduates in closing.

“This is a day many have worked very hard towards, it is an enormous achievement as well as a development in the quality of research, and the courage to research,” he said in a vote of confidence.

Dr Khotso Mokhele, Chancellor of the UFS, applauded the university in light of the increased number of female graduates who completed their degrees with distinctions. The transcendence of demographics, both in terms of gender and race, on a postgraduate level, increases the hope of achieving gender equality in both the academic arena and South Africa.

More graduation news

A number of distinctions were also awarded during the two-day ceremony. For a list of these distinctions, follow this link.

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