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Prof Abdon Atangana develops new concept to test Ebola waves

05 September 2022 | Story Andrè Damons | Photo Andrè Damons

With a new outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported this year in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – the 14th EVD outbreak in the country – researchers at the University of the Free State (UFS) introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. They believe the focus should be to identify the source or the hosts of this virus for it to be a complete eradication.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Ministry of Health in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared an outbreak of Ebola in Mbandaka health zone, Equateur Province on April 23, 2022. EVD, formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, is a severe, often fatal illness affecting humans and other primates. The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals (such as fruit bats, porcupines and non-human primates) and then spreads in the human population through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with these fluids, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS), says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. Predictions help lawmakers to take decisions that will help protect their citizens and their environments. The outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases have exposed the weakness of these models as they failed to predict the number of waves and in several instances; they failed to predict accurately day-to-day new infections, daily deaths and recoveries.

Solving the challenges of the current models

In the case of COVID-19 in South Africa, it is predicted that the country had far more infections than what was recorded, which is due to challenges faced by the medical facilities, poverty, inequality, and other factors. With Ebola in the DRC, data recorded are not far from reality due to the nature of the virus and its symptoms. However, the predictions show although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spread, they will still face some challenges in the future, as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact.

“To solve the challenges with the current models, we suggested a new methodology. We suggested that each class should be divided into two subclasses (Detected and undetected) and we also suggested that rates of infection, recovery, death and vaccination classes should be a function of time not constant as suggested previously. These rates are obtained from what we called daily indicator functions. For example, an infection rate should be obtained from recorded data with the addition of an uncertain function that represents non-recorded data (Here more work is still to be done to get a better approximation).

“I introduced a new concept called strength number that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. The strength number is an accelerative force that helps to provide speed changes, thus if this number is less than zero we have deceleration, meaning there will be a decline in the number of infections. If the number is positive, we have acceleration, meaning we will have an increase in numbers. If the number is zero, the current situation will remain the same,” according to Prof Atangana.

To provide better prediction, he continues, reliable data are first fitted with the suggested mathematical model. This helps them to know if their mathematical model is replicating the dynamic process of the spread. The next step is to predict future events, to do this, we create three sub-daily indicator functions (minimum, actual, and maximum). These will lead to three systems, the first system represents the worst-case scenario, the second is the actual scenario, and the last is a best-case scenario.

Virus will continue to spread but with less impact

Using this method, Prof Atangana, a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says he and Dr Seda Igret Araz, postdoctoral student, were able to predict that, although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spreads, they will still face some challenges in the future as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact.

To properly achieve the conversion from observed facts into mathematical formulations and to address these limitations, he had to ask fundamental questions such as what is the rate of infection, what is the strength of the infection, what are the crossover patterns presented by the spread, how can day-to-day new infected numbers be predicted and what differential operator should be used to model a dynamic process followed by the spread?

This approach was tested for several infectious diseases where we present the case of Ebola in Congo and Covid-19 in South Africa.

News Archive

UFS Centenary 2004 / 2005 October (centenary) fest Activities

2004-10-08

Friday, 08 October 2004
17:00 – 24:00
Callie Human Centre, UFS
Macufe Rock Concert
With: Rooibaardt, Karen Zoid, The Narrow, F****polisiekar, Stuurbaard Bakkebaard (from the Netherlands), DJ Bob, Ready D, Neva Me.
Cost : R50-00
Bookings : Pacofs (051-447 7772)

Sunday, 10 October 2004
16:00 – 18:00
Callie Human Centre, UFS
Macufe Three Tenors Concert
With: Phillip Kotze, Chris Coetzer and Du Preez Stolz, as well as Angela Kerrison. Free State Symphony Orchestra conducted by Chris Dowdeswell.
Cost :R60-00 (adults), R40-00 (children, scholars, students and pensioners)
Bookings : Pacofs (051-447 7772)

Tuesday, 12 October 2004
11:00 – 15:00
Centenary Complex, UFS
Inauguration of Centenary Complex
Open day with a variety of musical recitals in different rooms
Cost : Free
Enquiries : Elize Rall (051-401 3382)

15:00 – 17:00
Parking area next to the Centenary Complex, UFS
Kovsie Mosaic Day
Collage of the Century, Dance to the beat, Cultural Cartoon,
Who’s line is it anyway?
Cost : Free
Enquiries : Louis Botha (051-401 2819) or
AC Geldenhuys (084 585 3338)

Wednesday, 13 October 2004
19:00
Centenary Complex, UFS
Première of documentary film : The Life and Legacy of King Moshoeshoe
Note : By invitation only
Enquiries : Elize Rall (051-401 3382)

Thursday, 14 October 2004
18:45 – 21:00
Red Square (in front of Main Building), UFS
Centenary Honorary Doctorate Degree Graduation Ceremony
Conferred on: Me. Antjie Krog, Prof. Jakes Gerwel, Mr. Karel Schoeman, Dr. Frederick van Zyl Slabbert, Prof. Saleem Badat, Dr. Khotso Mokhele, Prof. Robert Bringle, Prof. Leo Quayle, Prof. Jack de Wet, Prof. Kerneels Nel (posthumously), Prof. Boelie Wessels and Prof. Jaap Steyn .
Cost : Free. Please RSVP if you would like to attend.
Enquiries : Elize Rall (051-401 3382)

Friday, 15 October 2004
18:30
Centenary Complex, UFS
Alumni Dinner and Centenary Award Ceremony
Approximately 140 centenary medals will be awarded in acknowledgement of exceptional contributions to the development of the University. The award ceremony is followed by the Alumni dinner in the Callie Human Centre.
Cost : R100-00/person
Enquiries : Elize Rall (051-401 3382)

15:00 (to 12:00, Saturday, 16 October 2004),
UFS campus
Reunion : Momentum Adventure and Expedition Association
Including : Setting up of the Kovsie Momentum base camp, champagne breakfast and abseiling.
Cost : R50-00/person for breakfast
Enquiries : Gerrit van der Merwe (072 4317 153) or
Niel Fraser (082 772 5642)
Website : www.uovs.ac.za/associations/momentum_hrcc.

19:00 (to 11:00 Sunday, 17 October 2004)
Reunion : Cantare Revue Group
Including : Formal dinner, budget show, bring and braai, church service.
Cost : R100-00/person for the dinner
Enquiries : Louis Botha (051-401 2819)

19:00 (to 24:00 Saturday, 16 October 2004
Reunion : House NJ van der Merwe
Including : Senior Student’s Association and concerts
Cost : R5-00/person
Enquiries : Tutu Ntlathi (051-401 4122 / 072 865 2227)

Saturday, 16 October 2004
09:00 – 10:00
Committee Room 120, Faculty of Theology
Founding of Theology Alumni Association
Enquiries: Henna Nel (051-401 2669)

10:00 – 12:00
Parking area, CR Swart Building, UFS
Alumni Campus Tour
Including : Visits to the new physical developments on campus
Cost : Free
Enquiries : Jeanette Jansen (051-401 3594)

10:00 – 12:00
Sonnedou gazellie (next to NJ van der Merwe Residence), UFS
Reunion : Ladies’ Tea
Visit our new gazellie and find out what Sonnedou is up to these days.
Cost : R25-00/person
Enquiries : Anne-Marie Delport (072 109 0507)

12:00 – 16:00
JBM Hertzog Residence (garden in front of Senior Student’s Association), UFS
Reunion : Braai
Cost : Approximately R20-00/person
Enquiries : Hattingh Bornman (084 240 5226)

12:00 Vergeet-my-nie Residence, UFS
Reunion : Braai
Bring and braai. We supply the facilities. Bring old photographs and stories. Enjoy Aunt Juls’ last visit.
Cost : Free
Enquiries : Mari Jordaan (051-444 2832/072 392 4444)

12:00 HF Verwoerd Residence Senior Student’s Association, UFS
Reunion : Spit roast
Cost : R60-00/person
Enquiries : Jan-Chris Landman (051-401 3613 / 082 664 6062)

18:30 Floreat Hall, Bloemfontein Civic Centre (Braam Fisher Building)
Irawa 60 Reunion
For all former editors, former and current main editorial staff and coworkers
Cost : R100-00/person
Enquiries : Sanri van Wyk (072 333 1011)
Elzette Boucher (072 180 6265)

19:00 – 24:00 Red Square (in front of Main Building), UFS
Informal Alumni Reunion
Spit roast and stories in a marquee
Cost : R60-00/person
Enquiries : Elize Rall (051-401 3382)

Sunday, 17 October 2004
10:00 – 11:00
Kovsie Church
Church Service

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