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05 September 2022 | Story Andrè Damons | Photo Andrè Damons
Prof Abdon Atangana
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS) and a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. It is for this reason he introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves.

With a new outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported this year in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – the 14th EVD outbreak in the country – researchers at the University of the Free State (UFS) introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. They believe the focus should be to identify the source or the hosts of this virus for it to be a complete eradication. 

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Ministry of Health in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared an outbreak of Ebola in Mbandaka health zone, Equateur Province on April 23, 2022. EVD, formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, is a severe, often fatal illness affecting humans and other primates. The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals (such as fruit bats, porcupines and non-human primates) and then spreads in the human population through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with these fluids, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).
 
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS), says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. Predictions help lawmakers to take decisions that will help protect their citizens and their environments. The outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases have exposed the weakness of these models as they failed to predict the number of waves and in several instances; they failed to predict accurately day-to-day new infections, daily deaths and recoveries.

Solving the challenges of the current models

In the case of COVID-19 in South Africa, it is predicted that the country had far more infections than what was recorded, which is due to challenges faced by the medical facilities, poverty, inequality, and other factors. With Ebola in the DRC, data recorded are not far from reality due to the nature of the virus and its symptoms. However, the predictions show although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spread, they will still face some challenges in the future, as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

“To solve the challenges with the current models, we suggested a new methodology. We suggested that each class should be divided into two subclasses (Detected and undetected) and we also suggested that rates of infection, recovery, death and vaccination classes should be a function of time not constant as suggested previously. These rates are obtained from what we called daily indicator functions. For example, an infection rate should be obtained from recorded data with the addition of an uncertain function that represents non-recorded data (Here more work is still to be done to get a better approximation).

“I introduced a new concept called strength number that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. The strength number is an accelerative force that helps to provide speed changes, thus if this number is less than zero we have deceleration, meaning there will be a decline in the number of infections. If the number is positive, we have acceleration, meaning we will have an increase in numbers. If the number is zero, the current situation will remain the same,” according to Prof Atangana. 

To provide better prediction, he continues, reliable data are first fitted with the suggested mathematical model. This helps them to know if their mathematical model is replicating the dynamic process of the spread. The next step is to predict future events, to do this, we create three sub-daily indicator functions (minimum, actual, and maximum). These will lead to three systems, the first system represents the worst-case scenario, the second is the actual scenario, and the last is a best-case scenario.

Virus will continue to spread but with less impact

Using this method, Prof Atangana, a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says he and Dr Seda Igret Araz, postdoctoral student, were able to predict that, although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spreads, they will still face some challenges in the future as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

To properly achieve the conversion from observed facts into mathematical formulations and to address these limitations, he had to ask fundamental questions such as what is the rate of infection, what is the strength of the infection, what are the crossover patterns presented by the spread, how can day-to-day new infected numbers be predicted and what differential operator should be used to model a dynamic process followed by the spread?

This approach was tested for several infectious diseases where we present the case of Ebola in Congo and Covid-19 in South Africa.  

News Archive

Inaugural lecture: Prof. Annette Wilkinson
2008-04-16

A strong plea for a pursuit of “scholarship” in higher education

Prof. Annette Wilkinson of the Centre for Higher Education Studies and Development in the Faculty of the Humanities at the University of the Free State (UFS) made as strong plea for a pursuit of “scholarship” in higher education.

She said in her inaugural lecture that higher education has to deal with changes and demands that necessitate innovative approaches and creative thinking when it concerns effective teaching and learning in a challenging and demanding higher education environment. She referred to a recent research report prepared for the Council for Higher Education (CHE) which spells out the alarming situation regarding attrition rates and graduation output in South African higher education and emphasises factors leading to the situation. These factors include socio-economic conditions and shortcomings in the school and the subsequent under preparedness of a very large proportion of the current student population. However, what is regarded as one of the key factors within the sector’s control is the implementation of strategies for improving graduate output.

She said: “The CHE report expresses concern about academics’ adherence to traditional teaching practices at institutions, which have not changed significantly to make provision for the dramatic increase in diversity since the 1980s.

“Raising the profile of teaching and learning in terms of accountability, recognition and scholarship is essential for successful capacity-building,” she said. “The notion of scholarship, however, brings to the minds of many academics the burden of ‘publish or perish’. In many instances, the pressures to be research-active are draining the value put on teaching. Institutions demand that staff produce research outputs in order to qualify for any of the so-called three Rs – resources, rewards and recognition.

“These have been abundant for research, but scarce when it comes to teaching – with the status of the latter just not on the same level as that of research. From within their demanding teaching environments many lecturers just feel they do not have the time to spend on research because of heavy workloads, that their efforts are under-valued and that they have to strive on the basis of intrinsic rewards.”

She said: “It is an unfortunate situation that educational expertise, in particular on disciplinary level, is not valued, even though in most courses, as in the Programme in Higher Education Studies at the UFS, all applications, whether in assignments, projects or learning material design, are directly applied to the disciplinary context. We work in a challenging environment where the important task of preparing students for tomorrow requires advanced disciplinary together with pedagogical knowledge.”

Prof. Wilkinson argued that a pursuit of the scholarship of teaching and learning holds the potential of not only improving teaching and learning and consequently success rates of students, but also of raising the status of teaching and recognising the immense inputs of lecturers who excel in a very demanding environment. She emphasised that not all teaching staff will progress to the scholarship level or are interested in such an endeavour. She therefore suggested a model in which performance in the area of teaching and learning can be recognised, rewarded and equally valued on three distinct levels, namely the levels of excellence, expertise and scholarship. An important feature of the model is that staff in managerial, administrative and support posts can also be rewarded for their contributions on the different levels for all teaching related work.

Prof. Wilkinson also emphasised the responsibility or rather, accountability, of institutions as a whole, as well as individual staff members, in providing an environment and infrastructure where students can develop to their full potential. She said that in this environment the development of the proficiency of staff members towards the levels of excellence, expertise and scholarship must be regarded as a priority.

“If we want to improve students’ success rates the institution should not be satisfied with the involvement in professional development opportunities by a small minority, but should set it as a requirement for all teaching staff, in particular on entry into the profession and for promotion purposes. An innovative approach towards a system of continuous professional development, valued and sought after, should be considered and built into the institutional performance management system.”

As an example of what can be achieved, Prof. Wilkinson highlighted the work of one of the most successful student support programmes at the UFS, namely the Career Preparation Programme (CPP), implemented fourteen years ago, bringing opportunities to thousands of students without matric exemption. The programme is characterised by dedicated staff, a challenging resource-based approach and foundational courses addressing various forms of under preparedness. Since 1993 3 422 students gained entry into UFS degree programmes after successfully completing the CPP; since 1996 1 014 of these students obtained their degrees, 95 got their honours degrees, 18 their master’s degrees and six successfully completed their studies as medical doctors.

Prof. Wilkinson said: “I believe we have the structures and the potential to become a leading teaching-learning university and region, where excellence, expertise and scholarship are recognised, honoured and rewarded.”

 

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