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29 September 2022 | Story Nitha Ramnath and André Damons | Photo iStock
Energy efficiency and renewable energy is the game for South Africa to transition to a carbon-friendly economy by 2050.
Energy efficiency and renewable energy is the game for South Africa to transition to a carbon-friendly economy by 2050.

Energy efficiency and renewable energy is the game for South Africa to transition to a carbon-friendly economy by 2050. The energy mix by 2050 is focused on renewables and the long-term journey is very clear: we have to be renewable driven.

This is according to panellists speaking at the University of the Free State’s (UFS) third webinar in the 2022 Thought-Leader webinar series. The webinar titled, What needs to be done to POWER up South Africa? comprised panellists Matthew Mflathelwa, General Manager: Strategy and Planning at Eskom; Steve Nicholls, Head of Mitigation at South Africa’s Presidential Climate Commission (PCC); Happy Khambule, Environment and Energy Manager at Business Unity South Africa (BUSA); and Louis Lagrange, Head: Department of Engineering Sciences in the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, UFS. 

We need to invest in new infrastructure

In his presentation, Mflathelwa talked about how Eskom can unlock additional grid capacity and how to start rolling out business models to enable this transition. 

“On the demand side, we are looking at some exciting and interesting initiatives. We are looking at how we can start to aggregate or leverage the idea of consumers becoming prosumers, and leverage technology to aggregate the potential supply and management demand from that perspective.” 

“The question is also how to do this sustainably in the long term. We need to invest a considerable amount of new infrastructure,” said Mflathelwa. 

According to him, it is not a secret that most of Eskom’s generating assets are approaching the end of life. The question now is how to proactively plan for this to ensure that we address the problem of load shedding sustainably. “The big takeaway is that there is a significant amount of new capacity that needs to be built and this is predominantly going to be renewables, but it is not the only additional infrastructure that is required. We need an energy mix that can respond and achieve adequacy for the future requirements.”  

Another important element that is often neglected is the transmission of grid infrastructure, given the penetration or entry of new players with greater penetration of renewable energy and the advantages that come with distributing these energy sources across the country. There is a lot of transmission and distribution infrastructure needed to enable this future capacity.

Some of the things also being discussed, said Mflathelwa, are how to enable greater and faster penetration of new capacity – specifically renewables to aid in the reduction of environmental challenges. 

LISTEN: 2022 UFS Thought-Leader Webinar:
What needs to be done to POWER up South Africa 
(Recorded on 27 September 2022)

 

The next decade is critical 

Nicholls gave a climate-friendly perspective on the work that Eskom is doing, saying energy transition in SA is core to the overall economy transition and getting a zero-carbon, least-cost energy system is fundamental to the strategy of the country. 

“We need to move from carbon emissions of around 480 megatons per annum today to somewhere between 350 and 420 by 2030, and then onto zero carbon emissions by 2050. If South Africa is to reach net-zero by 2050, we need targeted investment between now and 2030, setting the stage for accelerated investment in decarbonisation post 2030. The next decade is critical. Given the state of South Africa’s balance sheets, international support and foreign direct investment are critical.”

Nicholls said the energy mix by 2050 is really focused on renewables, and the long-term journey is very clear: we have to be renewable driven. The short- and long-term solutions are alike; renewables are cheaper, quicker to get onto the grid, pending some investment in the grid.   

“In the long term, we need big investments in renewables – about 6 GW a year between now and mid-2050. We need a big investment in the transmission grid. Hydrogen plays a critical role in decarbonisation of power and industry. Energy efficiency is key. It’s really the unsung hero in this conversation. If we can be energy efficient, we can take two power stations off the grid and that makes a big difference in terms of affordability.” 

“Transport is also important; if we are going to be a net-zero economy, we have to fully electrify the transport fleet, which puts an extra load on what Eskom needs to achieve,” Nicholls said. 

Energy efficiency is most critical

Khambule emphasized that the country needs to focus on using energy in an efficient manner in the commercial and household sectors, as energy efficiency is critical to the country’s power supply issues in the short term. According to Khambule, the country is not using energy in an efficient manner.

"If we are able to use power the minute it is necessary and become more efficient with it, we can get more value out of that power," said Khambule.

Lagrange concurred with Khambule on the importance of energy efficiency, referring to it as ‘the unsung hero’. “Energy efficiency is the biggest solution that we can have, and people need to be trained on how to use energy efficiently,” said Lagrange.

Khambule also addressed the issue of power cuts, saying the unpredictability thereof, even in the short-term, further exacerbated the situation.

"The unpredictability of load shedding has become much more of a driver for uncertainty, which leads to a lack of business confidence, and secondly leads to losses in production;  a key notion is that if we have predictability of load shedding, planning can be undertaken, and if planning is undertaken in a more judicious manner, then we are at least able to keep the losses at a minimum and see how we can weather the storm until a sustainable supply can be implemented."

Khambule also added that in the short and mid-term, solutions must consider protecting or mitigating options for vulnerable sectors. “In some industries – such as health care, power is essential and there is a need for predictable supply. Therefore, some sectors will require mitigating solutions to protect some essential sectors,” said Khambule.
According to Lagrange, no amazing technology for the generation and distribution of energy has been developed over the past decade. “We need to reimagine the entire current regulatory systems business model, because it is caught up in an energy stagnation, which is frighteningly fragile from a physical and cyber-security point of view,” added Lagrange.

News Archive

Media: Sunday Times
2006-05-20

Sunday Times, 4 June 2006

True leadership may mean admitting disunity
 

In this edited extract from the inaugural King Moshoeshoe Memorial Lecture at the University of the Free State, Professor Njabulo S Ndebele explores the leadership challenges facing South Africa

RECENT events have created a sense that we are undergoing a serious crisis of leadership in our new democracy. An increasing number of highly intelligent, sensitive and committed South Africans, across class, racial and cultural spectrums, confess to feeling uncertain and vulnerable as never before since 1994.

When indomitable optimists confess to having a sense of things unhinging, the misery of anxiety spreads. We have the sense that events are spiralling out of control and that no one among the leadership of the country seems to have a definitive handle on things.

There can be nothing more debilitating than a generalised and undefined sense of anxiety in the body politic. It breeds conspiracies and fear.

There is an impression that a very complex society has developed, in the last few years, a rather simple, centralised governance mechanism in the hope that delivery can be better and more quickly driven. The complexity of governance then gets located within a single structure of authority rather than in the devolved structures envisaged in the Constitution, which should interact with one another continuously, and in response to their specific settings, to achieve defined goals. Collapse in a single structure of authority, because there is no robust backup, can be catastrophic.

The autonomy of devolved structures presents itself as an impediment only when visionary cohesion collapses. Where such cohesion is strong, the impediment is only illusory, particularly when it encourages healthy competition, for example, among the provinces, or where a province develops a character that is not necessarily autonomous politically but rather distinctive and a special source of regional pride. Such competition brings vibrancy to the country. It does not necessarily challenge the centre.

Devolved autonomy is vital in the interests of sustainable governance. The failure of various structures to actualise their constitutionally defined roles should not be attributed to the failure of the prescribed governance mechanism. It is too early to say that what we have has not worked. The only viable corrective will be in our ability to be robust in identifying the problems and dealing with them concertedly.

We have never had social cohesion in South Africa — certainly not since the Natives’ Land Act of 1913. What we definitely have had over the decades is a mobilising vision. Could it be that the mobilising vision, mistaken for social cohesion, is cracking under the weight of the reality and extent of social reconstruction, and that the legitimate framework for debating these problems is collapsing? If that is so, are we witnessing a cumulative failure of leadership?

I am making a descriptive rather than an evaluative inquiry. I do not believe that there is any single entity to be blamed. It is simply that we may be a country in search of another line of approach. What will it be?

I would like to suggest two avenues of approach — an inclusive model and a counter-intuitive model of leadership.

In an inclusive approach, leadership is exercised not only by those who have been put in some position of power to steer an organisation or institution. Leadership is what all of us do when we express, sincerely, our deepest feelings and thoughts; when we do our work, whatever it is, with passion and integrity.

Counter-intuitive leadership lies in the ability of leaders to read a problematic situation, assess probable outcomes and then recognise that those outcomes will only compound the problem. Genuine leadership, in this sense, requires going against probability in seeking unexpected outcomes. That’s what happened when we avoided a civil war and ended up with an “unexpected” democracy.

Right now, we may very well hear desperate calls for unity, when the counter-intuitive imperative would be to acknowledge disunity. A declaration of unity where it manifestly does not appear to exist will fail to reassure.

Many within the “broad alliance” might have the view that the mobilising vision of old may have transformed into a strategy of executive steering with a disposition towards an expectation of compliance. No matter how compelling the reasons for that tendency, it may be seen as part of a cumulative process in which popular notions of democratic governance are apparently undermined and devalued; and where public uncertainty in the midst of seeming crisis induces fear which could freeze public thinking at a time when more voices ought to be heard.

Could it be that part of the problem is that we are unable to deal with the notion of opposition? We are horrified that any of us could be seen to have become “the opposition”. The word has been demonised. In reality, it is time we began to anticipate the arrival of a moment when there is no longer a single, overwhelmingly dominant political force as is currently the case. Such is the course of history. The measure of the maturity of the current political environment will be in how it can create conditions that anticipate that moment rather than seek to prevent it. We see here once more the essential creativity of the counter-intuitive imperative.

This is the formidable challenge of a popular post-apartheid political movement. Can it conceptually anticipate a future when it is no longer overwhelmingly in control, in the form in which it is currently, and resist, counter-intuitively, the temptation to prevent such an eventuality? Successfully resisting such an option would enable its current vision and its ultimate legacy to our country to manifest in different articulations, which then contend for social influence. In this way, the vision never really dies; it simply evolves into higher, more complex forms of itself. Consider the metaphor of flying ants replicating the ant community by establishing new ones.

We may certainly experience the meaning of comradeship differently, where we will now have “comrades on the other side”.

Any political movement that imagines itself as a perpetual entity should look at the compelling evidence of history. Few movements have survived those defining moments when they should have been more elastic, and that because they were not, did not live to see the next day.

I believe we may have reached a moment not fundamentally different from the sobering, yet uplifting and vision-making, nation-building realities that led to Kempton Park in the early ’90s. The difference between then and now is that the black majority is not facing white compatriots across the negotiating table. Rather, it is facing itself: perhaps really for the first time since 1994. Could we apply to ourselves the same degree of inventiveness and rigorous negotiation we displayed leading up to the adoption or our Constitution?

This is not a time for repeating old platitudes. It is the time, once more, for vision.

In the total scheme of things, the outcome could be as disastrous as it could be formative and uplifting, setting in place the conditions for a true renaissance that could be sustained for generations to come.

Ndebele is Vice-Chancellor of the University of Cape Town and author of the novel The Cry of Winnie Mandela

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