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05 April 2023 | Story André Damons and Samkelo Fetile | Photo istock
Union Building Pretoria
The University of the Free State presented its first webinar titled, The threats to South Africa’s domestic stability and security challenges, which is part of the 2023 Thought-Leader Webinar Series on Tuesday 4 April.

The biggest threat to South Africa’s domestic stability and the health of the country’s democracy is its leadership and the continuing political corruption of the ANC.

This is according to the panelists at the University of the Free State (UFS) first Thought-Leader webinar for the year. The webinar titled, The threats to South Africa’s domestic stability and security challenges, had as panelists Busisiwe Mavuso, Chief Executive Officer: Business Leadership South Africa; Palesa Morudu, Director: Strategy and Marketing Clarity Global Strategic Communications; Prof Hussein Solomon, Senior Professor: Centre for Gender and Africa Studies, UFS; and Dr Ivor Chipkin, Co-Founder and Director: New South Institute. Prof Francis Petersen, UFS Rector and Vice-Chancellor was the facilitator. 

Lawlessness is the problem

Mavuso said the essence of the country’s problems is lawlessness. 

“The conversation is not just about threats, but when you look at why these threats exist, it’s because we have a lawlessness problem as a country. South Africa has degenerated into a lawless country. And lawlessness is the symptom. If you want to get to the bottom of why we have a lawlessness problem, my view is that we need to start with the root – the culture issue.

“South Africa’s problem when it comes to corruption, is a culture problem. It is a culture that has been cultivated and set from the top. The political culture in South Africa is that being accused of a crime is not embarrassing. We have a culture conducive to theft, and if that is the culture at the top, what makes you think that as a country people won’t follow suit because the message is clear that crime pays and that nothing will happen to you and you can still hold political office. Better still, you can be the president of the country,” said Mavuso. 

According to her, the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime report last year shows that SA is witnessing a dramatic expansion and legitimisation of organised crime which is rising rapidly, with dire implications for the economy and the country’s stability.

Mavuso said countries fall apart when governance fails at government level because it is governments that set countries apart, not geography. Government is what separates good prosperous states from bad failing states. And it is unfortunately where we are as a country because our leaders are not what they ought to be. 

The focus for the country right now, said Mavuso, needs to be economic recovery, trying to attract investment as it is the only way to get out of this economic rut and deal with poverty, unemployment, and inequality crises.  

“I am worried that if we do not get this right, domestic stability is not going to get better. The threat to South Africa is bigger than we comprehend. It really is an issue of leadership. The solution is having the right leadership that is going to set the right tone. Let us agree and accept that South Africa is divorced from leadership which is why we are on the verge of becoming another failed African state.”

Not unique to South Africa

In her presentation, Morudu also focused on international policy and to what extent it may or not lead to negative developments on the domestic front. She said the topic is not unique to SA as the world is going through a deeply unsettling phase. From the threats to democracy, to climate change, to rising inequality, a bloody war in Ukraine, threatening economic recession as a result of COVID-19, and a growing mental health crisis among young people, especially in the US. 

“The world is quite a frightening place at the moment. I am not saying this to say that our problems are minor, but to help us understand the international context and that if we do not respond with some speed to our present challenges, not only will our backsliding economy and politics have very serious consequences for us, but it will also have major consequences for the part we play in the international system.

“I think it makes absolutely no sense for South Africa to align with Moscow over the conflict in Ukraine. Russia invaded a sovereign country; it came into that country with tanks and guns. It is very much like when the apartheid government invaded Angola in 1975 and pretty much stayed there until 1988,” said Morudu. 

According to her, South Africa’s backsliding democratic principles and foreign policy will also find expression in domestic policy. Nothing demonstrated this as keenly as the years of state capture that we lived through over the past 10 to 15 years. State institutions were hollowed out and rendered ineffective. Says Morudu: “The corruption of institutions took hold and thieves inside the state stole with impunity. The end result of that was there for all the world to see during the mass riots of July 2021. The state was literally unable to secure the safety of its own citizens. People had to organise themselves to stop the looting and to provide basic services to one another. It was an extraordinary moment for South Africa.”

Crises of democracy and the crisis of government 

Dr Chipkin said there seems to be a strong correlation in the crises of democracy in South Africa and the crisis of government. “There are questions around the role, integrity or value of democracy and I think a lot of that has to do with the crisis of government, the seeming inability of our public service, our state institutions, to deliver on the very ambitious programme of economic transformation that is part of constitutional promise.”

He said there has been a lot of work done to professionalise the public service in SA. “It is credible, intelligent, durable and I do believe that there is some appetite for change. There is an opportunity for the university to jump into that space, as activists or as academics, to claim and widen that space going forward.”

He believes that reforming the public service is going to close the door or at least narrow a pathway to the kind of corruption we have in SA. “As we make improvements in professionalising public services, I suspect organised crime is going to grow as it will be threatened by these progressive initiatives. It is going to resist. What is pertinent on the agenda is progressive moves towards modernisation in SA need to be accompanied by serious moves to reform and improve the capacity of the police to respond to the situation of interpersonal emergencies of organised crime in particular, and ultimately state capture.”

According to him, the situation [with the police] is not as dire as we think. He said the police as an institution is probably in a better state than we would like to think. “It is not full of incompetent policemen. I think it is full of a thousand capable, committed, honest and sincere policemen trying to do their jobs under circumstances which are terrifying difficult. I think challenges in the police are rather institutional.”   

Corporate sector reeling from criminal violence

Prof Solomon said the country’s security situation is rapidly deteriorating and he fears something really bad is lurking on the horizon for the country and its people. “Consider the following. It is estimated that more than 40% of women in South Africa will be raped in their lifetimes and that only one in nine rapes are reported. It is also estimated that only 14% of perpetrators of rapes are convicted in South Africa,” he said.

He stressed that beyond the level of personal violence, the corporate sector is also reeling from criminal violence. According to him, in 2019 already, 183 infrastructure and construction projects nationwide valued at more than R63 billion have been hindered by violent disruptions by the so-called construction mafia who euphemistically refer to themselves as business forums, typically demanding a 30% stake in projects.

“There has been little to no police intervention to stop this extortion economy and foreign investors flee in the face of the naked violence. As every first-year political science student knows, one of the characteristics of the state is its monopoly over coercive force within its territorial boundaries. The existence of these construction mafias and their ability to exert violence undermines this statehood, therefore South Africa is increasingly being referred to as a failed state.” 

He says this inaction begs the question as to what the state of our security services is. For 20 years terrorist financing in SA has been an issue. In July 2022 the problem of terrorism financing came to the fore when the United Nations Security Council experienced grave concern at how the Islamic State’s tentacles were spreading across the African continent and how SA has been used to fund Islamic State affiliates. 

“The bottom line is this. South Africa’s security situation is worsening. There are concrete recommendations which we can embark upon, but these will not work whilst the ANC is in power. The government lacks the capacity and legitimacy to rein in the forces of chaos which are about to envelop the country,” he said.

News Archive

Media: Sunday Times
2006-05-20

Sunday Times, 4 June 2006

True leadership may mean admitting disunity
 

In this edited extract from the inaugural King Moshoeshoe Memorial Lecture at the University of the Free State, Professor Njabulo S Ndebele explores the leadership challenges facing South Africa

RECENT events have created a sense that we are undergoing a serious crisis of leadership in our new democracy. An increasing number of highly intelligent, sensitive and committed South Africans, across class, racial and cultural spectrums, confess to feeling uncertain and vulnerable as never before since 1994.

When indomitable optimists confess to having a sense of things unhinging, the misery of anxiety spreads. We have the sense that events are spiralling out of control and that no one among the leadership of the country seems to have a definitive handle on things.

There can be nothing more debilitating than a generalised and undefined sense of anxiety in the body politic. It breeds conspiracies and fear.

There is an impression that a very complex society has developed, in the last few years, a rather simple, centralised governance mechanism in the hope that delivery can be better and more quickly driven. The complexity of governance then gets located within a single structure of authority rather than in the devolved structures envisaged in the Constitution, which should interact with one another continuously, and in response to their specific settings, to achieve defined goals. Collapse in a single structure of authority, because there is no robust backup, can be catastrophic.

The autonomy of devolved structures presents itself as an impediment only when visionary cohesion collapses. Where such cohesion is strong, the impediment is only illusory, particularly when it encourages healthy competition, for example, among the provinces, or where a province develops a character that is not necessarily autonomous politically but rather distinctive and a special source of regional pride. Such competition brings vibrancy to the country. It does not necessarily challenge the centre.

Devolved autonomy is vital in the interests of sustainable governance. The failure of various structures to actualise their constitutionally defined roles should not be attributed to the failure of the prescribed governance mechanism. It is too early to say that what we have has not worked. The only viable corrective will be in our ability to be robust in identifying the problems and dealing with them concertedly.

We have never had social cohesion in South Africa — certainly not since the Natives’ Land Act of 1913. What we definitely have had over the decades is a mobilising vision. Could it be that the mobilising vision, mistaken for social cohesion, is cracking under the weight of the reality and extent of social reconstruction, and that the legitimate framework for debating these problems is collapsing? If that is so, are we witnessing a cumulative failure of leadership?

I am making a descriptive rather than an evaluative inquiry. I do not believe that there is any single entity to be blamed. It is simply that we may be a country in search of another line of approach. What will it be?

I would like to suggest two avenues of approach — an inclusive model and a counter-intuitive model of leadership.

In an inclusive approach, leadership is exercised not only by those who have been put in some position of power to steer an organisation or institution. Leadership is what all of us do when we express, sincerely, our deepest feelings and thoughts; when we do our work, whatever it is, with passion and integrity.

Counter-intuitive leadership lies in the ability of leaders to read a problematic situation, assess probable outcomes and then recognise that those outcomes will only compound the problem. Genuine leadership, in this sense, requires going against probability in seeking unexpected outcomes. That’s what happened when we avoided a civil war and ended up with an “unexpected” democracy.

Right now, we may very well hear desperate calls for unity, when the counter-intuitive imperative would be to acknowledge disunity. A declaration of unity where it manifestly does not appear to exist will fail to reassure.

Many within the “broad alliance” might have the view that the mobilising vision of old may have transformed into a strategy of executive steering with a disposition towards an expectation of compliance. No matter how compelling the reasons for that tendency, it may be seen as part of a cumulative process in which popular notions of democratic governance are apparently undermined and devalued; and where public uncertainty in the midst of seeming crisis induces fear which could freeze public thinking at a time when more voices ought to be heard.

Could it be that part of the problem is that we are unable to deal with the notion of opposition? We are horrified that any of us could be seen to have become “the opposition”. The word has been demonised. In reality, it is time we began to anticipate the arrival of a moment when there is no longer a single, overwhelmingly dominant political force as is currently the case. Such is the course of history. The measure of the maturity of the current political environment will be in how it can create conditions that anticipate that moment rather than seek to prevent it. We see here once more the essential creativity of the counter-intuitive imperative.

This is the formidable challenge of a popular post-apartheid political movement. Can it conceptually anticipate a future when it is no longer overwhelmingly in control, in the form in which it is currently, and resist, counter-intuitively, the temptation to prevent such an eventuality? Successfully resisting such an option would enable its current vision and its ultimate legacy to our country to manifest in different articulations, which then contend for social influence. In this way, the vision never really dies; it simply evolves into higher, more complex forms of itself. Consider the metaphor of flying ants replicating the ant community by establishing new ones.

We may certainly experience the meaning of comradeship differently, where we will now have “comrades on the other side”.

Any political movement that imagines itself as a perpetual entity should look at the compelling evidence of history. Few movements have survived those defining moments when they should have been more elastic, and that because they were not, did not live to see the next day.

I believe we may have reached a moment not fundamentally different from the sobering, yet uplifting and vision-making, nation-building realities that led to Kempton Park in the early ’90s. The difference between then and now is that the black majority is not facing white compatriots across the negotiating table. Rather, it is facing itself: perhaps really for the first time since 1994. Could we apply to ourselves the same degree of inventiveness and rigorous negotiation we displayed leading up to the adoption or our Constitution?

This is not a time for repeating old platitudes. It is the time, once more, for vision.

In the total scheme of things, the outcome could be as disastrous as it could be formative and uplifting, setting in place the conditions for a true renaissance that could be sustained for generations to come.

Ndebele is Vice-Chancellor of the University of Cape Town and author of the novel The Cry of Winnie Mandela

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