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#Opinion: Post-SONA 2023 political landscape – a glimpse of the year ahead

14 February 2023 | Story Prof Sethulego Matebesi | Photo Sonia Small

Opinion article by Prof Sethulego Matebesi, Associate Professor and Head of the Department of Sociology, University of the Free State.

A maxim says it is not enough to know that people have made mistakes; we need to understand why they made the mistakes if we hope to prevent them or others from making the same mistakes.

While South Africans are still trying to make sense of the many lofty promises made about measures to deal with the catastrophic energy crisis over the past four years, unsurprisingly, the restoration of energy security also dominated the 2023 State of the Nation Address (SONA).

Still, the reasons behind the failure of past intervention measures and progress with restructuring the state’s energy utility, Eskom, remain a mystery.

There is enough cause for concern over Eskom’s stance that an ageing fleet of coal-fired power stations that consistently break down is one of the reasons for load shedding. What happened to planning? No wonder the need to achieve quick success in resolving the energy crisis has placed a premium on maintaining citizens’ trust. As a result, the government proposed new initiatives to address the insecurity of the electricity supply by declaring a state of emergency to avert a complete blackout and appointing a new Minister of Electricity within the presidency to lead the government’s short-term energy crisis response.

President Cyril Ramaphosa has already indicated that the criticism of the Minister of Electricity’s position is misguided. In other words, from the government’s perspective, the impact of its decisions does not matter. To South African citizens, however, it matters a great deal as they have borne the burden of load shedding and the rising cost of living. Above all, those who can cushion the blow of the energy crisis will want to see that the maximum value for public money is achieved.

The energy crisis has been the subject of fierce arguments over the past few years. So too, have deliberations on the government’s capability to deal with the crisis. And although the precise impact of the state of disaster, which began with immediate effect after its announcement in the SONA, cannot be determined at this stage, it is not premature to believe that the energy crisis will become a high-stake bidding game during the 2024 general elections.

From the responses of the African National Congress (ANC) parliamentarians and alliance partners, one gets the sense that they sincerely wish there could have been a less dramatic option for the electricity minister, who has been touted to serve merely as a project manager.

Disastrous decisions are a recipe for catastrophic events

There has never been a time in South African history since 1994 that our presidents have not faced one scandal or another. After having temporarily thwarted the Phala Phala saga and emerging victorious as leader of the ANC at the 55th National Conference in December 2022, one would assume that President Ramaphosa would have assimilated the lessons from past events.

The post-SONA 2023 political landscape points to a challenging year for Ramaphosa. It is a truism that an organisation’s culture is determined by its leader. And since politics is not an exercise in objectivity, it is for this reason that several expected decisions by President Ramaphosa will determine how he will navigate between being regarded as a heroic figure and a victim of political persecution.

Objectively, it is hard not to agree with critics that a state of emergency will open the floodgates of collusion and corruption, which are distinct problems within South African public procurement. At this point, one wonders if this is not yet another gimmick to extend the patronage network of the presidency.

Another major decision facing President Ramaphosa is the much-anticipated cabinet reshuffle. Deputy President David Mabuza’s announcement that he resigned, only to be asked by the presidency to hang on, provides fascinating insight into how difficult it can become to exercise what some may regard as the mundane task of replacing cabinet ministers. And looking at the organisational footprint of the ANC, I reckon President Ramaphosa will avoid a situation where a cabinet reshuffle becomes another political hot potato from within his own organisation.

There is a fierce power war waging within the ANC. As a result, time will tell whether the president will be brave enough to replace poor-performing ministers instead of using proxies such as the new Minister of Energy.

And to be clear – why we fail to confront underperforming ministers and public servants is a vexing question.

Indications are that there seems to be no aversion to brevity when it comes to political expediency, but to live up to the responsibility of accelerating structural reforms that significantly impact the country’s growth trajectory positively and reduce policy uncertainty. Continuing to routinely neglect these obligations is bound to create a more extensive trust gap between the government and citizens.

News Archive

Higher than expected prevalence of dementia in South African urban black population

2010-09-22

Prof. Malan Heyns and Mr Rikus van der Poel

Pilot research done by University of the Free State (UFS) indicates that the prevalence of dementia, of which Alzheimer’s disease is only one of the causes, is considerably higher than initially estimated. Clinical tests are now underway to confirm these preliminary findings.

To date it has been incorrectly assumed that dementia is less prevalent among urban black communities. This assumption is strongly disputed by the findings of the current study, which indicates a preliminary prevalence rate of approximately 6% for adults aged 65 years and older in this population group. Previous estimates for Southern Africa have been set at around 2,1%.

The research by the Unit for Professional Training and Services in the Behavioural Sciences (UNIBS) at the UFS and Alzheimer’s South Africa is part of the International 10/66 Dementia Research Group’s (10/66 DRG) initiative to establish the prevalence of dementia worldwide.

Mr Rikus van der Poel, coordinator of the local study, and Prof. Malan Heyns, Principal Investigator, say worldwide 66% of people with dementia live in low and middle income countries. It is expected that it will rise to more than 70% by 2040, and the socio-economic impact of dementia will increase accordingly within this period. 21 September marks World Alzheimer’s Day, and this year the focus is on the global economic impact of dementia. Currently, the world wide cost of dementia exceeds 1% of the total global GDP. If the global cost associated with dementia care was a company, it would be larger than Exxon-Mobil or Wal-Mart.

The researchers also say that of great concern is the fact that South Africa’s public healthcare system is essentially geared toward addressing primary healthcare needs, such as HIV/Aids and tuberculosis. The adult prevalence rate of HIV was 18,1% in 2007. According to UNAIDS figures more than 5,7 million people in South Africa are living with HIV/Aids, with an estimated annual mortality of 300 000. In many instances the deceased are young parents, with the result that the burden of childcare falls back on the elderly, and in many cases elderly grandparents suffering from dementia are left without children to take care of them. “These are but a few reasons that highlight the need for advocacy and awareness regarding dementia and care giving in a growing and increasingly urbanized population,” they say.

Low and middle income countries often lack epidemiological data to provide representative estimates of the regional prevalence of dementia. In general, epidemiological studies are challenging and expensive, especially in multi-cultural environments where the application of research protocols relies heavily on accurate language translations and successfully negotiated community access. Despite these challenges, the local researchers are keen to support advocacy and have joined the international effort to establish the prevalence of dementia through the 10/66 DRG.

The 10/66 DRG is a collective of researchers carrying out population-based research into dementia, non-communicable diseases and ageing in low and middle income countries. 10/66 refers to the two-thirds (66%) of people with dementia living in low and middle income countries, and the 10% or less of population-based research that has been carried out in those regions.

Since its inception in 1998, the 10/66 DRG has conducted population based surveys in 14 catchment areas in ten low and middle income countries, with a specific focus on the prevalence and impact of dementia. South Africa is one of seven LAMICs (low and medium income countries) where new studies have been conducted recently, the others being Puerto Rico, Peru, Mexico, Argentina, China and India.

Mr Van der Poel says participating researchers endeavour to conduct cross-sectional, comprehensive, one-phase surveys of all residents aged 65 and older within a geographically defined area. All centres share the same core minimum dataset with cross-culturally validated assessments (dementia diagnosis and subtypes, mental disorders, physical health, anthropometry, demographics, extensive non-communicable risk factor questionnaires, disability/functioning, health service utilization and caregiver strain).

The local pilot study, funded by Alzheimer’s South Africa, was rolled out through an existing community partnership, the Mangaung University of the Free State Community Partnership Programme (MUCPP).

According to Mr Van der Poel and Prof. Heyns, valuable insights have been gained into the myriad factors at play in establishing an epidemiological research project. The local community has responded positively and the pilot phase in and of itself has managed to promote awareness of the condition. The study has also managed to identify traditional and culture-specific views of dementia and dementia care. In addition, existing community-based networks are being strengthened, since part of the protocol will include the training and development of family caregivers within the local community in Mangaung.

“Like most developing economies, the South African population will experience continued urbanization during the next two decades, along with increased life expectancy. Community-based and residential care facilities for dementia are few and far between and government spending will in all probability continue to address the high demands associated with primary healthcare needs. These are only some of the reasons why epidemiological and related research is an important tool for assisting lobbyists, advocates and policymakers in promoting better care for those affected by dementia.”

Media Release
Issued by: Mangaliso Radebe
Assistant Director: Media Liaison
Tel: 051 401 2828
Cell: 078 460 3320
E-mail: radebemt@ufs.ac.za
21 September 2010

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