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#Opinion: Post-SONA 2023 political landscape – a glimpse of the year ahead

14 February 2023 | Story Prof Sethulego Matebesi | Photo Sonia Small

Opinion article by Prof Sethulego Matebesi, Associate Professor and Head of the Department of Sociology, University of the Free State.

A maxim says it is not enough to know that people have made mistakes; we need to understand why they made the mistakes if we hope to prevent them or others from making the same mistakes.

While South Africans are still trying to make sense of the many lofty promises made about measures to deal with the catastrophic energy crisis over the past four years, unsurprisingly, the restoration of energy security also dominated the 2023 State of the Nation Address (SONA).

Still, the reasons behind the failure of past intervention measures and progress with restructuring the state’s energy utility, Eskom, remain a mystery.

There is enough cause for concern over Eskom’s stance that an ageing fleet of coal-fired power stations that consistently break down is one of the reasons for load shedding. What happened to planning? No wonder the need to achieve quick success in resolving the energy crisis has placed a premium on maintaining citizens’ trust. As a result, the government proposed new initiatives to address the insecurity of the electricity supply by declaring a state of emergency to avert a complete blackout and appointing a new Minister of Electricity within the presidency to lead the government’s short-term energy crisis response.

President Cyril Ramaphosa has already indicated that the criticism of the Minister of Electricity’s position is misguided. In other words, from the government’s perspective, the impact of its decisions does not matter. To South African citizens, however, it matters a great deal as they have borne the burden of load shedding and the rising cost of living. Above all, those who can cushion the blow of the energy crisis will want to see that the maximum value for public money is achieved.

The energy crisis has been the subject of fierce arguments over the past few years. So too, have deliberations on the government’s capability to deal with the crisis. And although the precise impact of the state of disaster, which began with immediate effect after its announcement in the SONA, cannot be determined at this stage, it is not premature to believe that the energy crisis will become a high-stake bidding game during the 2024 general elections.

From the responses of the African National Congress (ANC) parliamentarians and alliance partners, one gets the sense that they sincerely wish there could have been a less dramatic option for the electricity minister, who has been touted to serve merely as a project manager.

Disastrous decisions are a recipe for catastrophic events

There has never been a time in South African history since 1994 that our presidents have not faced one scandal or another. After having temporarily thwarted the Phala Phala saga and emerging victorious as leader of the ANC at the 55th National Conference in December 2022, one would assume that President Ramaphosa would have assimilated the lessons from past events.

The post-SONA 2023 political landscape points to a challenging year for Ramaphosa. It is a truism that an organisation’s culture is determined by its leader. And since politics is not an exercise in objectivity, it is for this reason that several expected decisions by President Ramaphosa will determine how he will navigate between being regarded as a heroic figure and a victim of political persecution.

Objectively, it is hard not to agree with critics that a state of emergency will open the floodgates of collusion and corruption, which are distinct problems within South African public procurement. At this point, one wonders if this is not yet another gimmick to extend the patronage network of the presidency.

Another major decision facing President Ramaphosa is the much-anticipated cabinet reshuffle. Deputy President David Mabuza’s announcement that he resigned, only to be asked by the presidency to hang on, provides fascinating insight into how difficult it can become to exercise what some may regard as the mundane task of replacing cabinet ministers. And looking at the organisational footprint of the ANC, I reckon President Ramaphosa will avoid a situation where a cabinet reshuffle becomes another political hot potato from within his own organisation.

There is a fierce power war waging within the ANC. As a result, time will tell whether the president will be brave enough to replace poor-performing ministers instead of using proxies such as the new Minister of Energy.

And to be clear – why we fail to confront underperforming ministers and public servants is a vexing question.

Indications are that there seems to be no aversion to brevity when it comes to political expediency, but to live up to the responsibility of accelerating structural reforms that significantly impact the country’s growth trajectory positively and reduce policy uncertainty. Continuing to routinely neglect these obligations is bound to create a more extensive trust gap between the government and citizens.

News Archive

Media: ANC can learn a lesson from Moshoeshoe

2006-05-20

27/05/2006 20:32 - (SA)
ANC can learn a lesson from Moshoeshoe
ON 2004, the University of the Free State turned 100 years old. As part of its centenary celebrations, the idea of the Moshoeshoe Memorial Lecture was mooted as part of another idea: to promote the study of the meaning of Moshoeshoe.

This lecture comes at a critical point in South Africa's still-new democracy. There are indications that the value of public engagement that Moshoeshoe prized highly through his lipitso [community gatherings], and now also a prized feature in our democracy, may be under serious threat. It is for this reason that I would like to dedicate this lecture to all those in our country and elsewhere who daily or weekly, or however frequently, have had the courage to express their considered opinions on pressing matters facing our society. They may be columnists, editors, commentators, artists of all kinds, academics and writers of letters to the editor, non-violent protesters with their placards and cartoonists who put a mirror in front of our eyes.

There is a remarkable story of how Moshoeshoe dealt with Mzilikazi, the aggressor who attacked Thaba Bosiu and failed. So when Mzilikazi retreated from Thaba Bosiu with a bruised ego after failing to take over the mountain, Moshoeshoe, in an unexpected turn of events, sent him cattle to return home bruised but grateful for the generosity of a victorious target of his aggression. At least he would not starve along the way. It was a devastating act of magnanimity which signalled a phenomenal role change.

"If only you had asked," Moshoeshoe seemed to be saying, "I could have given you some cattle. Have them anyway."

It was impossible for Mzilikazi not to have felt ashamed. At the same time, he could still present himself to his people as one who was so feared that even in defeat he was given cattle. At any rate, he never returned.

I look at our situation in South Africa and find that the wisdom of Moshoeshoe's method produced one of the defining moments that led to South Africa's momentous transition to democracy. Part of Nelson Mandela's legacy is precisely this: what I have called counter-intuitive leadership and the immense possibilities it offers for re-imagining whole societies.

A number of events in the past 12 months have made me wonder whether we are faced with a new situation that may have arisen. An increasing number of highly intelligent, sensitive and highly committed South Africans across the class, racial and cultural spectrum confess to feeling uncertain and vulnerable as never before since 1994. When indomitable optimists confess to having a sense of things unhinging, the misery of anxiety spreads. It must have something to do with an accumulation of events that convey the sense of impending implosion. It is the sense that events are spiralling out of control and no one among the leadership of the country seems to have a handle on things.

I should mention the one event that has dominated the national scene continuously for many months now. It is, of course, the trying events around the recent trial and acquittal of Jacob Zuma. The aftermath continues to dominate the news and public discourse. What, really, have we learnt or are learning from it all? It is probably too early to tell. Yet the drama seems far from over, promising to keep us all without relief, and in a state of anguish. It seems poised to reveal more faultlines in our national life than answers and solutions.

We need a mechanism that will affirm the different positions of the contestants validating their honesty in a way that will give the public confidence that real solutions are possible. It is this kind of openness, which never comes easily, that leads to breakthrough solutions, of the kind Moshoeshoe's wisdom symbolises.

Who will take this courageous step? What is clear is that a complex democracy like South Africa's cannot survive a single authority. Only multiple authorities within a constitutional framework have a real chance. I want to press this matter further.

Could it be that part of the problem is that we are unable to deal with the notion of "opposition". We are horrified that any of us could become "the opposition". In reality, it is time we began to anticipate the arrival of a moment when there was no longer a single [overwhelmingly] dominant political force as is currently the case. Such is the course of change. The measure of the maturity of the current political environment will be in how it can create conditions that anticipate that moment rather than ones that seek to prevent it. This is the formidable challenge of a popular post-apartheid political movement.

Can it conceptually anticipate a future when it is no longer overwhelmingly in control, in the form in which it currently is and resist, counter-intuitively, the temptation to prevent such an eventuality? Successfully resisting such an option would enable its current vision and its ultimate legacy to our country to manifest itself in different articulations of itself, which then contend for social influence.

In this way, the vision never really dies, it simply evolves into higher, more complex forms of itself. If the resulting versions are what is called "the opposition" that should not be such a bad thing - unless we want to invent another name for it. The image of flying ants going off to start other similar settlements is not so inappropriate.

I do not wish to suggest that the nuptial flights of the alliance partners are about to occur: only that it is a mark of leadership foresight to anticipate them conceptually. Any political movement that has visions of itself as a perpetual entity should look at the compelling evidence of history. Few have survived those defining moments when they should have been more elastic, and that because they were not, did not live to see the next day.

I believe we may have reached a moment not fundamentally different from the sobering, yet uplifting and vision-making, nation-building realities that led to Kempton Park in the early 1990s. The difference between then and now is that the black majority is not facing white compatriots across the negotiating table. Rather, it is facing itself: perhaps really for the first time since 1994. It is not a time for repeating old platitudes. Could we apply to ourselves the same degree of inventiveness and rigorous negotiation we displayed up to the adoption or our Constitution?

Morena Moshoeshoe faced similarly formative challenges. He seems to have been a great listener. No problem was too insignificant that it could not be addressed. He seems to have networked actively across the spectrum of society. He seems to have kept a close eye on the world beyond Lesotho, forming strong friendships and alliances, weighing his options constantly. He seems to have had patience and forbearance. He had tons of data before him before he could propose the unexpected. He tells us across the years that moments of renewal demand no less.

This is an editied version of the inaugural Moshoeshoe Memorial Lecture presented by Univeristy of Cape Town vice-chancellor Professor Ndebele at the University of the Free State on Thursday. Perspectives on Leadership Challenges In South Africa

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