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30 May 2023 | Story Dr Mpumelelo Ncube | Photo Supplied
Dr Mpumelelo Ncube
Dr Mpumelelo Ncube is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Social Work, University of the Free State.


Opinion article by Dr Mpumelelo Ncube, Head of Department and Senior Lecturer in the Department of Social Work, University of the Free State.


The year 2023 marks the diamond jubilee of the establishment of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), currently known as the African Union (AU), which was founded in Addis Ababa. The visionary founders, including President Kwame Nkrumah and Emperor Haile Selassie, aimed to bring about political change in African states and restore the dignity of African people, who had long suffered under colonial subjugation and disenfranchisement. Their vision encompassed a united Africa, free from oppression, governed by self-determination, and destined for prosperity.

Over time, the OAU transformed into the AU, with the intention of accelerating the dream of African unity and eradicating the social, political, and economic challenges that had begun to define African states. Pan-Africanism emerged as a beacon of hope, inspiring many who understood its significance at the organisation's inception. As we reflect on the ideals cherished by the founding fathers and reaffirmed by their successors in 2002, it is crucial to contemplate four of the seventeen aims articulated during the launch of the African Union in Durban.

Unity and solidarity between African countries and their people

Firstly, the AU aims to achieve greater unity and solidarity between African countries and their people. In pursuit of this goal, notable actions have been taken, such as the establishment of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) to maintain peace in conflict zones such as Mali, Sudan, Somalia, and the Central African Republic. Moreover, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the AU set up the Africa Medical Supplies Platform (AMSP) to facilitate the procurement and distribution of medical equipment and supplies throughout the continent. While these achievements are commendable, the majority of the other intentions under this aim lack a concrete plan of action, and the lack of sufficient funding is hampering progress. This presents a cause for concern.

Secondly, the AU pledged to defend the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence of its member states. Despite the development of intervention instruments to support this aim, the organisation has been found wanting at critical junctures. One cannot forget the adoption of Resolution 1973 by the United Nations Security Council, which authorised national governments or regional organisations to impose a no-fly zone in Libya, ultimately leading to the assassination of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. Colonel Gadhafi played a pivotal role in the formation of the African Union and declared his vision for the United States of Africa with a single government and one currency. Surprisingly, three AU member states – South Africa, Nigeria, and Gabon – voted in favour of this resolution. Their actions raised doubts about their commitment to defending the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence of the AU.

Africa faces a harsh reality

Africa, a continent with immense potential for growth and development, faces a harsh reality that cannot be ignored. Its burgeoning population holds great promise for contributing significantly to its advancement. Additionally, Africa is blessed with abundant mineral resources, the prudent management of which could sustain the developmental aspirations of its people. Furthermore, Africa's expansive land mass and diverse climate present valuable opportunities to address crucial concerns such as food and energy security. It is perplexing that Africa, a continent three times the size of the United States of America, continues to lag behind in all aspects of development. The continent has enormous potential to foster growth and development and to compete on a global scale. Regrettably, it has thus far failed to harness this potential, leaving the dream of African prosperity, initially envisioned by the founders of the OAU (AU) and their successors, frustratingly out of reach.

As we commemorate the diamond jubilee of the OAU's establishment, let it serve as a reminder of the vision and determination of its founders. Their dreams for an Africa united, free from oppression, and governed by self-determination still resonate today. It is our collective responsibility to ensure that these dreams are no longer scuppered, but rather transformed into a vibrant reality of African prosperity.

News Archive

Fight against Ebola virus requires more research
2014-10-22

 

Dr Abdon Atangana
Photo: Ifa Tshishonge
Dr Abdon Atangana, a postdoctoral researcher in the Institute for Groundwater Studies at the University of the Free State (UFS), wrote an article related to the Ebola virus: Modelling the Ebola haemorrhagic fever with the beta-derivative: Deathly infection disease in West African countries.

“The filoviruses belong to a virus family named filoviridae. This virus can cause unembellished haemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman monkeys. In literature, only two members of this virus family have been mentioned, namely the Marburg virus and the Ebola virus. However, so far only five species of the Ebola virus have been identified, including:  Ivory Coast, Sudan, Zaire, Reston and Bundibugyo.

“Among these families, the Ebola virus is the only member of the Zaire Ebola virus species and also the most dangerous, being responsible for the largest number of outbreaks.

“Ebola is an unusual, but fatal virus that causes bleeding inside and outside the body. As the virus spreads through the body, it damages the immune system and organs. Ultimately, it causes the blood-clotting levels in cells to drop. This leads to severe, uncontrollable bleeding.

Since all physical problems can be modelled via mathematical equation, Dr Atangana aimed in his research (the paper was published in BioMed Research International with impact factor 2.701) to analyse the spread of this deadly disease using mathematical equations. We shall propose a model underpinning the spread of this disease in a given Sub-Saharan African country,” he said.

The mathematical equations are used to predict the future behaviour of the disease, especially the spread of the disease among the targeted population. These mathematical equations are called differential equation and are only using the concept of rate of change over time.

However, there is several definitions for derivative, and the choice of the derivative used for such a model is very important, because the more accurate the model, the better results will be obtained.  The classical derivative describes the change of rate, but it is an approximation of the real velocity of the object under study. The beta derivative is the modification of the classical derivative that takes into account the time scale and also has a new parameter that can be considered as the fractional order.  

“I have used the beta derivative to model the spread of the fatal disease called Ebola, which has killed many people in the West African countries, including Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia, since December 2013,” he said.

The constructed mathematical equations were called Atangana’s Beta Ebola System of Equations (ABESE). “We did the investigation of the stable endemic points and presented the Eigen-Values using the Jacobian method. The homotopy decomposition method was used to solve the resulted system of equations. The convergence of the method was presented and some numerical simulations were done for different values of beta.

“The simulations showed that our model is more realistic for all betas less than 0.5.  The model revealed that, if there were no recovery precaution for a given population in a West African country, the entire population of that country would all die in a very short period of time, even if the total number of the infected population is very small.  In simple terms, the prediction revealed a fast spread of the virus among the targeted population. These results can be used to educate and inform people about the rapid spread of the deadly disease,” he said.

The spread of Ebola among people only occurs through direct contact with the blood or body fluids of a person after symptoms have developed. Body fluid that may contain the Ebola virus includes saliva, mucus, vomit, faeces, sweat, tears, breast milk, urine and semen. Entry points include the nose, mouth, eyes, open wounds, cuts and abrasions. Note should be taken that contact with objects contaminated by the virus, particularly needles and syringes, may also transmit the infection.

“Based on the predictions in this paper, we are calling on more research regarding this disease; in particular, we are calling on researchers to pay attention to finding an efficient cure or more effective prevention, to reduce the risk of contamination,” Dr Atangana said.


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