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13 September 2023 | Story Samkelo Fetile | Photo Supplied
Agriculture Supply Chain - Ukraine
On Thursday 7 September 2023, the University of the Free State (UFS) presented its fifth webinar titled, The need for a global and regional plan/approach to respond to the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, as part of the 2023 Thought-Leader Webinar Series.

Africa must avoid being instrumentalised by external conflict

In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the world has been grappling with the far-reaching consequences of this conflict. The effects can be felt globally – affecting economies, supply chains, and vital issues on the international agenda. These are some of the points discussed in the recent Thought-Leader webinar held by the University of the Free State (UFS). The webinar titled, The need for a global and regional plan/approach to respond to the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, brought together experts such as Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa; Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, Chief Executive of the South African Institute of International Affairs; Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Chairperson of the Institute for Security Studies; and Prof Philippe Burger, Dean of the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, UFS.

The webinar was facilitated by Prof Francis Petersen, Vice-Chancellor and Principal of the UFS.

Exploring Africa’s long-term future

Dr Cilliers delved into the long-term future of Africa; drawing comprehensive insights, his analysis highlighted the global shifts and their impact on the continent. He projected that China would surpass the United States as the world's most powerful country by mid-century, emphasising the need for Africa to navigate relations with both China, the EU, and the US for its development.

Four global scenarios were presented by Dr Cilliers: a sustainable world, a divided world, a world at war, and a growth world. The most probable scenario appeared to be a divided world, characterised by fragmented international relations and a growing divide between the wealthy West and the rest of the world. He stressed the importance of Africa pursuing geopolitical stability, avoiding being instrumentalised by external conflicts, and working towards a fair, rules-based global system.

He also touched on Russia's influence in Africa, noting its role in proxy wars and coups d'etat aimed at disrupting Western influence. “While Russia's direct presence in Africa was relatively small, its capacity to undermine the West and impact Africa's development prospects was significant,” said Dr Cilliers. He cautioned against overestimating Russia's influence and emphasised the need for a more nuanced understanding of the complex factors affecting Africa's future.

Global paradigm shifts

Sidiropoulos placed the ongoing war and global developments in a broader context, emphasising the need for a significant shift in how we perceive the world and its norms, calling for changes in economics, politics, and even ideology. Regarding the Ukraine conflict, she noted its role as a proxy and European war with far-reaching global consequences, highlighting the importance of understanding its historical context.

She discussed the evolving dynamics of the Ukraine conflict, where neither side has achieved its desired outcomes. She emphasised the potential for war fatigue and the need to consider alternative pathways, such as dialogue and negotiation, to avoid a frozen conflict or an outright victory by one party. She also underscored Russia's continued relevance as a great power with nuclear capabilities, prompting questions about the future of European security arrangements.

Shifting her focus to South Africa and Africa as a whole, Sidiropoulos stressed the importance of understanding the foreign policy of major global players such as Russia, China, and India. “As these countries rise in influence, it becomes essential to navigate their policies, both in terms of national interest and values,” she added.

Nonalignment and South Africa's foreign policy challenges

Sidiropoulos discussed the challenges presented by South Africa’s non-aligned stance. “There is a need for a coherent government-wide strategy, clear messaging, and the ability to make decisions based on issues and national interests rather than being automatically aligned with one camp or another.” The importance of preserving policy space and balancing economic interests with fundamental principles in international relations was emphasised.

She called on African countries to adopt a more proactive stance in shaping their path and ensuring that national interest serves the citizens and society, not just the elite. She stressed the importance of economic independence, not isolation, by leveraging opportunities such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), diversifying production, and strengthening governance for accountability.

Strengthening regional value chains

Sihlobo emphasised the vulnerability of the continent's food supplies and stressed Africa's dependence on food imports, highlighting that the continent imports approximately $80 billion worth of agricultural food, fibre, and beverage products. “Vulnerabilities in the food supply chain existed before the war due to factors such as drought, conflicts in East Africa, and COVID-19 supply chain disruptions. These vulnerabilities disproportionately affected Africa's poor households,” said Sihlobo.

South Africa, in contrast to much of Africa, exports nearly half of its agricultural production, amounting to around $13 billion in value. Despite exporting record volumes in 2022, South Africa has not escaped the price transmission effects of global disruptions, resulting in food inflation concerns. However, South Africa's situation was relatively better due to its export-oriented agriculture.

Sihlobo emphasised the need for Africa to strengthen regional value chains to insulate itself from external shocks. “Regional cooperation, productivity improvements, infrastructure development, and investments are essential for Africa's agricultural sector to thrive,” he added.

To enhance agricultural productivity in Africa, Sihlobo highlighted the importance of political stability, good governance, and infrastructure development. Productivity gains must replace extensive land expansion, with governments promoting sustainable agricultural practices.

Need for ongoing containment

Prof Burger highlighted the importance of containment as a policy approach to address the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis. He emphasised the need to consider the moral, economic, and political dimensions of the crisis, while recognising its historical context.

He noted that the initial invasion of Ukraine led to spikes in global inflation. However, subsequent developments, including a military containment, contributed to a decrease in inflation rates. He likened the current military stalemate to World War I's trench warfare and the lack of significant military progress for protracted periods of time. He also highlighted that the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) of 2022 has expired, and Russia has shown reluctance to renew it. This ongoing stalemate and the risks associated with the non-renewal of the BSGI have raised questions about the prospects of the crisis.

Prof Burger discussed the concept of containment, differentiating between long-run changes in input prices and short-term fluctuations. “Successful containment involves interventions that prevent price movements from deviating significantly from long-term levels.” He pointed to successful containment interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis. These measures included economic stimuli, vaccine distribution, rerouting of grain exports, and ensuring stable energy supply.

He briefly discussed the role of the expanded BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), which now includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and Argentina, in the context of the crisis. While acknowledging divisions within the group, he noted that BRICS allows China and India to pursue their international programmes more independently.

Prof Burger concluded by highlighting the need for containment in the face of a long-term military stalemate or the absence of a clear Ukrainian victory. He argued that containment in the form of a long-term ceasefire as in the Kashmir and Korea conflicts might be the most viable solution. In addition, the stability of the Putin regime and Western support for the Zelensky government would be crucial factors in determining the trajectory of the crisis.


WATCH: 2023 UFS Thought-Leader Series

News Archive

UFS to award honorary doctorate to Maria Ramos
2004-12-08

The Council of the University of the Free State (UFS) recently approved the awarding of an honorary doctorate to Ms Maria Ramos, Group Chief Executive of Transnet in April 2005. A total of five honorary doctorandi will be honored.

The other doctorandi are Proff Jan Groenewald (D Sc (hc)), Jaap Durand (D Phil (hc)), Sampie Terreblanche (C Dom (hc)) and Anthon Heyns (MD (hc)).

Me Ramos will receive an honorary doctorate in Economics (P hD (Economics) (hc)) for the large contribution she made to the establishment of a prudent fiscal and macro-economic policy in South Africa and hence, to the restoration of the financial credibility of the country in the eyes of domestic and foreign investors. Ms Ramos was the Director General of the National Treasury from 1996-2003.

She obtained the MSc-degree in Economics in 1992 from the University of London and was awarded a British Council Scholarship (Helen Suzman award) in the same year and in 1991. During the early nineties she was among others project leader of the ANC’s Macro-economic Research Group and also a member of the team that negotiated chapters on finance in the interim Constitution of South Africa. She was a research associate at the Centre for the Study of the South African Economy and International Finance at the London School of Economics and also lectured at the Universities of South Africa and the Witwatersrand.

“It is a great privilege for us to honor Ms Ramos and the other doctorandi in their different fields of expertise. This once again serves as an example of the UFS’s policy to give recognition to people who excel and make a difference,” said Prof Frederick Fourie, Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS.

Prof Jan Groenewald will receive an honorary doctorate for his life-long commitment to the establishment and development of Agricultural Economics as a subject field in South Africa and in Africa and his various contributions to the UFS. During his career, Prof Groenewald received various awards among others in 1998 when he received the Stals Prize for Economics from the South African Academy for Science and Art and in 1990 when he received an honorary medal from the South African Society for Agricultural Economics.

Prof Jaap Durand will receive an honorary doctorate in Philosophy for his pioneering work on various fields in the South African society. He obtained his Masters degree in Philosophy from the UFS and contributed to almost 60 articles and collections. Prof Durand has a colourful career as academic manager: from professor in Systematic Theology and dean of the Faculty of Theology at the University of the Western Cape to Deputy Vice-Chancellor of the same university. He was the ombudsman of the University of Stellenbosch from 2002-2003.

Prof Sampie Terreblanche will receive an honorary doctorate in Economics for the important role he played, and is still playing, to keep the debate about and the need for socio-economic and socio-political reform in South Africa going. Prof Terreblanche started his career as a lecturer at the UFS. In 1992 the Stals Prize for Economics was awarded to him by the South African Academy for Science and Art. Prof Terreblanche was also a founding member of ASSET, an organisation addressing the problems of poverty, inequality and social injustice in South Africa.

Prof Anthon Heyns, Chief Executive Officer of the South African National Blood Service, will receive an honorary doctorate in Medicine. Prof Heyns is a well-known international researcher in Hematology and recently received a Centenary Medal from the UFS for his strong role and national prominence as expert and leading figure in establishing and developing Hematology at the UFS. He was the first head of the UFS’s Department of Hematology and is also co-editor of the only Afrikaans hand book of Hematology. He serves among others as a council member and member of the executive management of the South African Medical Research Council. On the international front he serves on at least five committees of the World Health Organisation based in Geneve, Switzerland. He has two honorary appointments as professor respectively at the UFS and University of the Witwatersrand.

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel: (051) 401-2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@mail.uovs.ac.za
8 December 2004

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