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13 September 2023 | Story Samkelo Fetile | Photo Supplied
Agriculture Supply Chain - Ukraine
On Thursday 7 September 2023, the University of the Free State (UFS) presented its fifth webinar titled, The need for a global and regional plan/approach to respond to the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, as part of the 2023 Thought-Leader Webinar Series.

Africa must avoid being instrumentalised by external conflict

In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the world has been grappling with the far-reaching consequences of this conflict. The effects can be felt globally – affecting economies, supply chains, and vital issues on the international agenda. These are some of the points discussed in the recent Thought-Leader webinar held by the University of the Free State (UFS). The webinar titled, The need for a global and regional plan/approach to respond to the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, brought together experts such as Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa; Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, Chief Executive of the South African Institute of International Affairs; Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Chairperson of the Institute for Security Studies; and Prof Philippe Burger, Dean of the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, UFS.

The webinar was facilitated by Prof Francis Petersen, Vice-Chancellor and Principal of the UFS.

Exploring Africa’s long-term future

Dr Cilliers delved into the long-term future of Africa; drawing comprehensive insights, his analysis highlighted the global shifts and their impact on the continent. He projected that China would surpass the United States as the world's most powerful country by mid-century, emphasising the need for Africa to navigate relations with both China, the EU, and the US for its development.

Four global scenarios were presented by Dr Cilliers: a sustainable world, a divided world, a world at war, and a growth world. The most probable scenario appeared to be a divided world, characterised by fragmented international relations and a growing divide between the wealthy West and the rest of the world. He stressed the importance of Africa pursuing geopolitical stability, avoiding being instrumentalised by external conflicts, and working towards a fair, rules-based global system.

He also touched on Russia's influence in Africa, noting its role in proxy wars and coups d'etat aimed at disrupting Western influence. “While Russia's direct presence in Africa was relatively small, its capacity to undermine the West and impact Africa's development prospects was significant,” said Dr Cilliers. He cautioned against overestimating Russia's influence and emphasised the need for a more nuanced understanding of the complex factors affecting Africa's future.

Global paradigm shifts

Sidiropoulos placed the ongoing war and global developments in a broader context, emphasising the need for a significant shift in how we perceive the world and its norms, calling for changes in economics, politics, and even ideology. Regarding the Ukraine conflict, she noted its role as a proxy and European war with far-reaching global consequences, highlighting the importance of understanding its historical context.

She discussed the evolving dynamics of the Ukraine conflict, where neither side has achieved its desired outcomes. She emphasised the potential for war fatigue and the need to consider alternative pathways, such as dialogue and negotiation, to avoid a frozen conflict or an outright victory by one party. She also underscored Russia's continued relevance as a great power with nuclear capabilities, prompting questions about the future of European security arrangements.

Shifting her focus to South Africa and Africa as a whole, Sidiropoulos stressed the importance of understanding the foreign policy of major global players such as Russia, China, and India. “As these countries rise in influence, it becomes essential to navigate their policies, both in terms of national interest and values,” she added.

Nonalignment and South Africa's foreign policy challenges

Sidiropoulos discussed the challenges presented by South Africa’s non-aligned stance. “There is a need for a coherent government-wide strategy, clear messaging, and the ability to make decisions based on issues and national interests rather than being automatically aligned with one camp or another.” The importance of preserving policy space and balancing economic interests with fundamental principles in international relations was emphasised.

She called on African countries to adopt a more proactive stance in shaping their path and ensuring that national interest serves the citizens and society, not just the elite. She stressed the importance of economic independence, not isolation, by leveraging opportunities such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), diversifying production, and strengthening governance for accountability.

Strengthening regional value chains

Sihlobo emphasised the vulnerability of the continent's food supplies and stressed Africa's dependence on food imports, highlighting that the continent imports approximately $80 billion worth of agricultural food, fibre, and beverage products. “Vulnerabilities in the food supply chain existed before the war due to factors such as drought, conflicts in East Africa, and COVID-19 supply chain disruptions. These vulnerabilities disproportionately affected Africa's poor households,” said Sihlobo.

South Africa, in contrast to much of Africa, exports nearly half of its agricultural production, amounting to around $13 billion in value. Despite exporting record volumes in 2022, South Africa has not escaped the price transmission effects of global disruptions, resulting in food inflation concerns. However, South Africa's situation was relatively better due to its export-oriented agriculture.

Sihlobo emphasised the need for Africa to strengthen regional value chains to insulate itself from external shocks. “Regional cooperation, productivity improvements, infrastructure development, and investments are essential for Africa's agricultural sector to thrive,” he added.

To enhance agricultural productivity in Africa, Sihlobo highlighted the importance of political stability, good governance, and infrastructure development. Productivity gains must replace extensive land expansion, with governments promoting sustainable agricultural practices.

Need for ongoing containment

Prof Burger highlighted the importance of containment as a policy approach to address the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis. He emphasised the need to consider the moral, economic, and political dimensions of the crisis, while recognising its historical context.

He noted that the initial invasion of Ukraine led to spikes in global inflation. However, subsequent developments, including a military containment, contributed to a decrease in inflation rates. He likened the current military stalemate to World War I's trench warfare and the lack of significant military progress for protracted periods of time. He also highlighted that the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) of 2022 has expired, and Russia has shown reluctance to renew it. This ongoing stalemate and the risks associated with the non-renewal of the BSGI have raised questions about the prospects of the crisis.

Prof Burger discussed the concept of containment, differentiating between long-run changes in input prices and short-term fluctuations. “Successful containment involves interventions that prevent price movements from deviating significantly from long-term levels.” He pointed to successful containment interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis. These measures included economic stimuli, vaccine distribution, rerouting of grain exports, and ensuring stable energy supply.

He briefly discussed the role of the expanded BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), which now includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and Argentina, in the context of the crisis. While acknowledging divisions within the group, he noted that BRICS allows China and India to pursue their international programmes more independently.

Prof Burger concluded by highlighting the need for containment in the face of a long-term military stalemate or the absence of a clear Ukrainian victory. He argued that containment in the form of a long-term ceasefire as in the Kashmir and Korea conflicts might be the most viable solution. In addition, the stability of the Putin regime and Western support for the Zelensky government would be crucial factors in determining the trajectory of the crisis.


WATCH: 2023 UFS Thought-Leader Series

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SRC Inauguration speech: 22 January 2005
2005-01-22

Campus Head (Prof Peter Mbati). Dean of Students (Dr Natie Luyt). Deputy Director: Student Affairs and my boss (Mr. Teboho Manchu), Members of the University executive and Academic staff members, SRC members, Leaders of trade Unions and Student organizations, Distinguished guests, Ladies and gentlemen, most importantly first entering students and Parents receive my heartfelt revolutionary greetings.

Let me extend my word of appreciation to our distinguished guests for adding value and dignity to this event. Your presence here means a lot to us. Program Director what I bring here with me, assisted by facts, and is therefore just the work of my imagination. Like a love letter addressed to a sweetheart miles away, even though you do not know how she feels, what she wants to hear, and do not even know how her face looks like.

To me a speech is just an honest and intimate conversation. That is why I got into the habit of establishing a dialogue, or a debate, with my acquaintances looking at their faces and trying to persuade them of what I am telling them.

Mr. Speaker and Madam Deputy Speaker of the Student Parliament we are gathering at this ceremony, significantly few weeks after the release of grade 12 results, with the exception of those from Mpumalanga because of fraud. The Grade 12 results also show that only 18% of Black learners matriculated with exemptions, as compared to 53, 6% of white learners. This is an indication that our education system needs an overhaul.

We are also gathered here significantly a day after the management retreat held in Bloemfontein, Masselspoort. The retreat discussed, among other things, the transformation agenda, and some possible solutions to challenges we are facing now.

Most regrettably, we are gathered here when the whole world morns the victims of Tsunami tragedy. Let me therefore tore the line and convey our deepest condolences, from the last robot of my heart, to the affected families. Our hearts and thoughts will always be occupied by this horrified tragedy.

Creating a new Institution

I would submit, for purposes of debate and discussions that this Institution should strive to specialize and excel in regional rural development studies. Since our higher education, institutions in South Africa are generally weak in rural development studies. Instead, most of them tend to have an urban orientation to their programmes. Training everybody for the cities, big business and the private sector. This is a big weakness in a country with such large rural areas and population trapped in poverty, disease and ignorance.

Women’s studies

Program Director, it is only a moron who can argue against the fact that for us to reposition the institution around the regional development challenge, we need to start first with women empowerment. It is a fact that in most of our poor communities and families, it is women who withstand the worst of poverty. They are the ones who daily have to wipe tears from children who are hungry. It is women who look after the sick, the elderly, those dying from AIDS and the jobless. They are the one who have to fetch water, make fire and cook. There can therefore be no rural development studies without women studies, in particular on how to empower them and assist in the provision of basic services, so that they are relieved from some of the burdensome task of the society.

Registration Process

Mr. Speaker and Madam Deputy Speaker of the Student Parliament let me indicate that the registration is a process and not an event, so it cannot be concluded overnight. This huge process demands for people to stay calm, as there is no crisis. People should stop being excited. At the same time, no organization should use its cheap popularity and unilaterally disrupt the continuous and smooth running of the registration process at hand.

Let me strongly indicate, madam deputy speaker, that I am on record for stating that I have forgiven all those who have wronged us. I harbour no bitterness towards the protagonists of our painful and unfortunate events of the past week. And we will overcome this process not by our own devices but by the help of Almighty God and the grace of our Lord Jesus Christ.

Concerning registration of first years, we have programs, concerning that of senior students, we have programs, regarding graduations we have programs, and concerning HIV\AIDS we have programs. So, there is no need for people to press panicking buttons.

Mr. Speaker and Madam Deputy Speaker of the Student Parliament let me be opportunistic and welcome the entire student body on Campus for the academic year 2005. May our lovely first entering students have a happy and momentous year as part of Qwaqwa Campus of University of the Free State. May your studies be fruitful and enjoyable.

Student years are generally the happiest years of your life, so please make the most of them. While you are doing, all your preparations bear in mind that University is not an opportunity, it is just creating opportunities for a person.

On behalf of SRC members, our people, our students and management members I would like to welcome you all. Even though your parents are far away, here at Uniqwa you have more brothers, more sisters and more parents. Since we will love you with the same love as if we are from one family, and I have no doubts that management members will love and care for you as if you are their own children. Should you encounter any problem while studying at the Qwaqwa Campus of University of the Free State do not hesitate to contact us at the SRC offices because we need to ameliorate any factor influencing you negatively while on campus. I wish you well in the attainment of your academic pursuit.

Senior Students: We are not faced with just a new year but another academic year where we all have to work together to achieve our common goal of building our Institution through the development of human power. I urge you to invest your whole selves in this SRC.

For quite some time now, a debate has been ranging as to, whether has there been any progress in this incorporation process, or we are just moving with no direction. This debate is important, but I hasten to add not essential. The SRC is also involved in this debate, but with definite shift in emphasis. For us it is not important to participate in the debate than it is in finding solutions for the challenges of this new chapter in the history of humankind.

To my colleagues: Comrades, we are leading this Institution with a sense of pride and duty, and I know very well that we lead men and women, students who are determined to ensure that we all reach our destination safely and on time.

I said in one of our meetings that there are more enemies on our way, more than we can imagine. I think you witnessed that during the course of this week. The excitement and unnecessary confusions caused by some confused and loosed charlatans bear testimony to my statements. We should not reveal our game plans unless we are ready to slam.

Let me also borrow from the words of the late Albert Lethuli when he said and I quote: “There remains before us the building of the new land, from the ruins of the old narrow groups, a synthesis of the rich cultural strains which we have inherited. The task is immense”. Lastly, a navy divided within its ranks will be vanquished and destroyed by the enemy, but a navy united in purpose and action, loyalty and commitment will not drawn but sail on to victory.

In conclusion, let me call upon all political structures, church denominations, developmental structures, clubs, societies and forums to put aside all their differences, ideological insinuations and forge unity towards transforming Qwaqwa Campus of University of the Free State into an institution that is seen playing vigilant role in developing students academically, politically, socially, spiritually, religiously, culturally and otherwise.

Program Director, let me end my speech by indicating that every drop of my blood is telling me that Uniqwa is my home. I firstly became a student here, I became an activist here, I became a leader here, I became a president here, I will become a graduant here and hopefully I will become an employee here. So never, doubt my commitment towards the community of this campus.

Please be informed, in a central University of Technology’s way, that if there is no UNIQWA in HEAVEN, then I am not GOING.

Let us broaden the social base.

Tello Titus Wa-Motloung President General

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