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13 September 2023 | Story Samkelo Fetile | Photo Supplied
Agriculture Supply Chain - Ukraine
On Thursday 7 September 2023, the University of the Free State (UFS) presented its fifth webinar titled, The need for a global and regional plan/approach to respond to the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, as part of the 2023 Thought-Leader Webinar Series.

Africa must avoid being instrumentalised by external conflict

In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the world has been grappling with the far-reaching consequences of this conflict. The effects can be felt globally – affecting economies, supply chains, and vital issues on the international agenda. These are some of the points discussed in the recent Thought-Leader webinar held by the University of the Free State (UFS). The webinar titled, The need for a global and regional plan/approach to respond to the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, brought together experts such as Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa; Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, Chief Executive of the South African Institute of International Affairs; Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Chairperson of the Institute for Security Studies; and Prof Philippe Burger, Dean of the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, UFS.

The webinar was facilitated by Prof Francis Petersen, Vice-Chancellor and Principal of the UFS.

Exploring Africa’s long-term future

Dr Cilliers delved into the long-term future of Africa; drawing comprehensive insights, his analysis highlighted the global shifts and their impact on the continent. He projected that China would surpass the United States as the world's most powerful country by mid-century, emphasising the need for Africa to navigate relations with both China, the EU, and the US for its development.

Four global scenarios were presented by Dr Cilliers: a sustainable world, a divided world, a world at war, and a growth world. The most probable scenario appeared to be a divided world, characterised by fragmented international relations and a growing divide between the wealthy West and the rest of the world. He stressed the importance of Africa pursuing geopolitical stability, avoiding being instrumentalised by external conflicts, and working towards a fair, rules-based global system.

He also touched on Russia's influence in Africa, noting its role in proxy wars and coups d'etat aimed at disrupting Western influence. “While Russia's direct presence in Africa was relatively small, its capacity to undermine the West and impact Africa's development prospects was significant,” said Dr Cilliers. He cautioned against overestimating Russia's influence and emphasised the need for a more nuanced understanding of the complex factors affecting Africa's future.

Global paradigm shifts

Sidiropoulos placed the ongoing war and global developments in a broader context, emphasising the need for a significant shift in how we perceive the world and its norms, calling for changes in economics, politics, and even ideology. Regarding the Ukraine conflict, she noted its role as a proxy and European war with far-reaching global consequences, highlighting the importance of understanding its historical context.

She discussed the evolving dynamics of the Ukraine conflict, where neither side has achieved its desired outcomes. She emphasised the potential for war fatigue and the need to consider alternative pathways, such as dialogue and negotiation, to avoid a frozen conflict or an outright victory by one party. She also underscored Russia's continued relevance as a great power with nuclear capabilities, prompting questions about the future of European security arrangements.

Shifting her focus to South Africa and Africa as a whole, Sidiropoulos stressed the importance of understanding the foreign policy of major global players such as Russia, China, and India. “As these countries rise in influence, it becomes essential to navigate their policies, both in terms of national interest and values,” she added.

Nonalignment and South Africa's foreign policy challenges

Sidiropoulos discussed the challenges presented by South Africa’s non-aligned stance. “There is a need for a coherent government-wide strategy, clear messaging, and the ability to make decisions based on issues and national interests rather than being automatically aligned with one camp or another.” The importance of preserving policy space and balancing economic interests with fundamental principles in international relations was emphasised.

She called on African countries to adopt a more proactive stance in shaping their path and ensuring that national interest serves the citizens and society, not just the elite. She stressed the importance of economic independence, not isolation, by leveraging opportunities such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), diversifying production, and strengthening governance for accountability.

Strengthening regional value chains

Sihlobo emphasised the vulnerability of the continent's food supplies and stressed Africa's dependence on food imports, highlighting that the continent imports approximately $80 billion worth of agricultural food, fibre, and beverage products. “Vulnerabilities in the food supply chain existed before the war due to factors such as drought, conflicts in East Africa, and COVID-19 supply chain disruptions. These vulnerabilities disproportionately affected Africa's poor households,” said Sihlobo.

South Africa, in contrast to much of Africa, exports nearly half of its agricultural production, amounting to around $13 billion in value. Despite exporting record volumes in 2022, South Africa has not escaped the price transmission effects of global disruptions, resulting in food inflation concerns. However, South Africa's situation was relatively better due to its export-oriented agriculture.

Sihlobo emphasised the need for Africa to strengthen regional value chains to insulate itself from external shocks. “Regional cooperation, productivity improvements, infrastructure development, and investments are essential for Africa's agricultural sector to thrive,” he added.

To enhance agricultural productivity in Africa, Sihlobo highlighted the importance of political stability, good governance, and infrastructure development. Productivity gains must replace extensive land expansion, with governments promoting sustainable agricultural practices.

Need for ongoing containment

Prof Burger highlighted the importance of containment as a policy approach to address the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis. He emphasised the need to consider the moral, economic, and political dimensions of the crisis, while recognising its historical context.

He noted that the initial invasion of Ukraine led to spikes in global inflation. However, subsequent developments, including a military containment, contributed to a decrease in inflation rates. He likened the current military stalemate to World War I's trench warfare and the lack of significant military progress for protracted periods of time. He also highlighted that the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) of 2022 has expired, and Russia has shown reluctance to renew it. This ongoing stalemate and the risks associated with the non-renewal of the BSGI have raised questions about the prospects of the crisis.

Prof Burger discussed the concept of containment, differentiating between long-run changes in input prices and short-term fluctuations. “Successful containment involves interventions that prevent price movements from deviating significantly from long-term levels.” He pointed to successful containment interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis. These measures included economic stimuli, vaccine distribution, rerouting of grain exports, and ensuring stable energy supply.

He briefly discussed the role of the expanded BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), which now includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and Argentina, in the context of the crisis. While acknowledging divisions within the group, he noted that BRICS allows China and India to pursue their international programmes more independently.

Prof Burger concluded by highlighting the need for containment in the face of a long-term military stalemate or the absence of a clear Ukrainian victory. He argued that containment in the form of a long-term ceasefire as in the Kashmir and Korea conflicts might be the most viable solution. In addition, the stability of the Putin regime and Western support for the Zelensky government would be crucial factors in determining the trajectory of the crisis.


WATCH: 2023 UFS Thought-Leader Series

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Minister Jeff Radebe commends UFS for measures taken to address racial prejudices
2013-10-21

 

18 October 2013


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Minister Jeff Radebe lecture: YouTube video

Mr Jeff Radebe, Minister of Justice and Constitutional Development, last night delivered a lecture in the Prestige series of the Dean: Faculty of Law, at the Bloemfontein Campus of the University of the Free State (UFS).

In a packed hall with, among others, university students, staff and members of the judicial system, Minister Radebe said that many other academic institutions should look to the UFS when they deal with the challenges of racism in its various manifestations in their midst. “I commend the university for taking drastic measures to address the challenges of racial prejudices in its own backyard,” he said.

“Government can and must provide leadership, but it is the collective efforts of all our people that will ensure that we bridge the racial and historical divides that stand in contrast to our noble virtues as entailed in the Constitution,” the Minister said.

On the topic “Access to Justice” the Minister said that the Department of Justice and Constitutional Development has channelled more than 80% of its nearly R16 billion budget to the Access to Justice programme.

Minister Radebe talked about the reintroduction of the Sexual Offences Courts, which attests to the unrelenting resolve to eliminate the scourge of gender-based violence. “Fifty-seven of the department’s Regional Courts are being upgraded to operate as dedicated Sexual Offences courts during the 2013/2014 financial year. We believe that these sexual offences courts will help address the growing challenge of sexual offences in the country, particularly against vulnerable groups.”

The Minister also pleaded with law teachers to avail themselves to preside in the courts in our country to complement the decreasing number of presiding officers that are drawn from the attorneys’ and advocates’ profession. These services are normally rendered by the Commissioners pro bono as part of an endeavour to bring justice to all the people, including the poor.

A challenge that the UFS could help resolve,is the transformation of the legal profession. “We need to increase the number of Law students and in turn increase the number of attorneys and advocates in the pool from which we derive candidate judges,” Mr Radebe said.

The Legal Practice Bill and the transformation of the State Legal Service are the most important initiatives underway by which the Institutions of Higher Learning will make a contribution. “The Bill seeks to establish a single regulatory structure, which will be responsible for setting the norms and standards for all legal practitioners. Members of the public, as primary beneficiaries of the legal profession, will also be represented in this structure. Other important objectives of the Bill are the removal of barriers of entry to the profession for young law graduates who aspire to pursue a legal career, and the introduction of measures aimed at ensuring that fees chargeable for legal services are reasonable and within reach of ordinary citizens,” he said.

The Minister concluded: “Our courts must reflect both the race and gender demographics of our country and so must the university communities in their various capacities as a microcosm of the society we seek to build.”

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