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13 September 2023 | Story Samkelo Fetile | Photo Supplied
Agriculture Supply Chain - Ukraine
On Thursday 7 September 2023, the University of the Free State (UFS) presented its fifth webinar titled, The need for a global and regional plan/approach to respond to the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, as part of the 2023 Thought-Leader Webinar Series.

Africa must avoid being instrumentalised by external conflict

In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the world has been grappling with the far-reaching consequences of this conflict. The effects can be felt globally – affecting economies, supply chains, and vital issues on the international agenda. These are some of the points discussed in the recent Thought-Leader webinar held by the University of the Free State (UFS). The webinar titled, The need for a global and regional plan/approach to respond to the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, brought together experts such as Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa; Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, Chief Executive of the South African Institute of International Affairs; Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Chairperson of the Institute for Security Studies; and Prof Philippe Burger, Dean of the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, UFS.

The webinar was facilitated by Prof Francis Petersen, Vice-Chancellor and Principal of the UFS.

Exploring Africa’s long-term future

Dr Cilliers delved into the long-term future of Africa; drawing comprehensive insights, his analysis highlighted the global shifts and their impact on the continent. He projected that China would surpass the United States as the world's most powerful country by mid-century, emphasising the need for Africa to navigate relations with both China, the EU, and the US for its development.

Four global scenarios were presented by Dr Cilliers: a sustainable world, a divided world, a world at war, and a growth world. The most probable scenario appeared to be a divided world, characterised by fragmented international relations and a growing divide between the wealthy West and the rest of the world. He stressed the importance of Africa pursuing geopolitical stability, avoiding being instrumentalised by external conflicts, and working towards a fair, rules-based global system.

He also touched on Russia's influence in Africa, noting its role in proxy wars and coups d'etat aimed at disrupting Western influence. “While Russia's direct presence in Africa was relatively small, its capacity to undermine the West and impact Africa's development prospects was significant,” said Dr Cilliers. He cautioned against overestimating Russia's influence and emphasised the need for a more nuanced understanding of the complex factors affecting Africa's future.

Global paradigm shifts

Sidiropoulos placed the ongoing war and global developments in a broader context, emphasising the need for a significant shift in how we perceive the world and its norms, calling for changes in economics, politics, and even ideology. Regarding the Ukraine conflict, she noted its role as a proxy and European war with far-reaching global consequences, highlighting the importance of understanding its historical context.

She discussed the evolving dynamics of the Ukraine conflict, where neither side has achieved its desired outcomes. She emphasised the potential for war fatigue and the need to consider alternative pathways, such as dialogue and negotiation, to avoid a frozen conflict or an outright victory by one party. She also underscored Russia's continued relevance as a great power with nuclear capabilities, prompting questions about the future of European security arrangements.

Shifting her focus to South Africa and Africa as a whole, Sidiropoulos stressed the importance of understanding the foreign policy of major global players such as Russia, China, and India. “As these countries rise in influence, it becomes essential to navigate their policies, both in terms of national interest and values,” she added.

Nonalignment and South Africa's foreign policy challenges

Sidiropoulos discussed the challenges presented by South Africa’s non-aligned stance. “There is a need for a coherent government-wide strategy, clear messaging, and the ability to make decisions based on issues and national interests rather than being automatically aligned with one camp or another.” The importance of preserving policy space and balancing economic interests with fundamental principles in international relations was emphasised.

She called on African countries to adopt a more proactive stance in shaping their path and ensuring that national interest serves the citizens and society, not just the elite. She stressed the importance of economic independence, not isolation, by leveraging opportunities such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), diversifying production, and strengthening governance for accountability.

Strengthening regional value chains

Sihlobo emphasised the vulnerability of the continent's food supplies and stressed Africa's dependence on food imports, highlighting that the continent imports approximately $80 billion worth of agricultural food, fibre, and beverage products. “Vulnerabilities in the food supply chain existed before the war due to factors such as drought, conflicts in East Africa, and COVID-19 supply chain disruptions. These vulnerabilities disproportionately affected Africa's poor households,” said Sihlobo.

South Africa, in contrast to much of Africa, exports nearly half of its agricultural production, amounting to around $13 billion in value. Despite exporting record volumes in 2022, South Africa has not escaped the price transmission effects of global disruptions, resulting in food inflation concerns. However, South Africa's situation was relatively better due to its export-oriented agriculture.

Sihlobo emphasised the need for Africa to strengthen regional value chains to insulate itself from external shocks. “Regional cooperation, productivity improvements, infrastructure development, and investments are essential for Africa's agricultural sector to thrive,” he added.

To enhance agricultural productivity in Africa, Sihlobo highlighted the importance of political stability, good governance, and infrastructure development. Productivity gains must replace extensive land expansion, with governments promoting sustainable agricultural practices.

Need for ongoing containment

Prof Burger highlighted the importance of containment as a policy approach to address the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis. He emphasised the need to consider the moral, economic, and political dimensions of the crisis, while recognising its historical context.

He noted that the initial invasion of Ukraine led to spikes in global inflation. However, subsequent developments, including a military containment, contributed to a decrease in inflation rates. He likened the current military stalemate to World War I's trench warfare and the lack of significant military progress for protracted periods of time. He also highlighted that the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) of 2022 has expired, and Russia has shown reluctance to renew it. This ongoing stalemate and the risks associated with the non-renewal of the BSGI have raised questions about the prospects of the crisis.

Prof Burger discussed the concept of containment, differentiating between long-run changes in input prices and short-term fluctuations. “Successful containment involves interventions that prevent price movements from deviating significantly from long-term levels.” He pointed to successful containment interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis. These measures included economic stimuli, vaccine distribution, rerouting of grain exports, and ensuring stable energy supply.

He briefly discussed the role of the expanded BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), which now includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and Argentina, in the context of the crisis. While acknowledging divisions within the group, he noted that BRICS allows China and India to pursue their international programmes more independently.

Prof Burger concluded by highlighting the need for containment in the face of a long-term military stalemate or the absence of a clear Ukrainian victory. He argued that containment in the form of a long-term ceasefire as in the Kashmir and Korea conflicts might be the most viable solution. In addition, the stability of the Putin regime and Western support for the Zelensky government would be crucial factors in determining the trajectory of the crisis.


WATCH: 2023 UFS Thought-Leader Series

News Archive

Volksblad: Moshoeshoe Memorial Lecture
2006-05-27

27 Mei 2006

Moshoeshoe het mense saamgebind
KONING MOSHOESHOE kon bewys dat verskeidenheid ’n bindende eienskap kan wees. Dit blyk ’n sleutelbeginsel van sy leierskap te wees – en dit is nie ’n maklike een om te begryp nie.

Jy bereik die grootste eenheid tussen onderskeidende entiteite waar jy relatief vrye ruimte aan hulle gee om hul eiesoortige kenmerke na vore te bring.

Dít blyk uit prof. Njabulo Ndebele se gedenklesing oor koning Moshoeshoe.
Lesotho; het; onder Moshoeshoe se leierskap mense van verskeie dele van die subkontinent gelok.
Dié mense het hierheen gevlug van die verwoesting wat as lifaqane bekend geword het toe Shaka sy koninkryk met militêre onderwerping verstewig het.

Ndebele het gesê daar is algemene ooreenkoms dat die oorloë wat hieruit gespruit het, die maatskaplike grondslae van talle samelewings in Suider-Afrika geskud het.

“Dit was in dié konteks dat Moshoeshoe leierskap getoon het.”
Prof. Frederick Fourie, rektor en visekanselier van die Universiteit van die Vrystaat (UV), het gesê die lesing vorm deel van ’n groter debat oor leierskapmodelle, veral die konsep van Afrika-leierskap, en die voortgesette diskoers oor nasiebou en versoening.

Die Moshoeshoe-projek is in 2004 aan die UV begin om met Suid-Afrika se eerste dekade van demokrasie saam te val.
Die projek was deel van die UV se eeufeesvieringe in 2004.
Met dié projek word geprobeer om ’n groot Afrika-leier te vereer en die UV se verbintenis tot transformasie te toon sodat ’n ware inklusiewe en nie-rassige universiteit geskep kan word.

“As die stigter van die Basoeto-nasie, word daar wyd erkenning aan koning Moshoeshoe vir sy buitengewone leierskapstyl gegee.

“Diplomasie, versoening en vreedsame naasbestaan is van die kenmerke van sy leierskap, soos getoon in sy pogings om verskillende groepe in een nasie te verenig,” sê Fourie.

KONING MOSHOESHOE, een van Afrika se eertydse groot leiers. Hy is meer as 130 jaar gelede dood. Foto: verskaf

Waarde van openbare spraak ‘nou bedreig’
AANDUIDINGS bestaan dat die waarde van openbare spraak wat hoog deur koning Moshoeshoe van Lesotho op prys gestel is, nou onder ernstige bedreiging kan wees.

Om dié rede dra hy die koning Moshoeshoe-gedenklesing op aan al dié mense in Suid-Afrika en elders wat die moed het om hul oorwoë mening uit te druk oor belangrike sake wat die samelewing in die gesig staar, het prof. Njabulo Ndebele, visekanselier van die Universiteit van Kaapstad, gesê.

Ndebele, wêreldbekende skrywer, het gesê dié lesing kom op ’n kritieke punt in Suid-Afrika se nuwe demokrasie.
Dié lesing, om die buitengewone nalatenskap van een van Afrika se groot leiers te eer, is eergisteraand op die kampus van die Universiteit van die Vrystaat (UV) gelewer en het ’n staande toejuiging deur ’n groot gehoor uitgelok.

Ndebele het gesê die mense wat hul menings uitdruk oor belangrike sake, kan rubriekskrywers, redakteurs, kommentators, alle soorte kunstenaars, akademici, koerantbriefskrywers, nie-gewelddadige optoggangers met plakkate en strokiesprentkunstenaars wees “wat ’n spieël voor ons oë sit”.

“Selfs wanneer hulle dit waag op heilige gebied, soos sommige strokiesprentkunstenaars onlangs gedoen het, herinner hulle ons net dat selfs die heilige misbruik kan word vir doeleindes wat min met heiligheid te doen het.

“Dit is hul manier om ons te help, dalk meer diepsinnig as wat ons besef, om daardie einste ruimte van heiligheid in ons lewe te bewaar.

“Hulle verdiep ons insigte deur ons begrip te verdiep.
“Dit is gepas om hul dapperheid te vier,” het Ndebele gesê.
“Hulle herinner ons dat leierskap nie al is wat ons doen wanneer ons in ’n sekere magsposisie geplaas is om ’n organisasie of ’n sekere instelling te stuur nie.”

Hy het gesê onder die mense wat gevier moet word, sluit hy nie dié in wat deur haatspraak ander aanhits om geweld te pleeg; teen; mense; wat hul andersdenkende menings lug nie.

“Dit is nie met dapperheid dat hulle aanhits nie, maar weens hul toevlug tot die narkotiese beskerming van die skare.”

Mense voel glo ál kwesbaarder
Vise-kanselier lewer Moshoeshoe-gedenklesing
’n TOENEMENDE aantal hoogs intelligente, sensitiewe en toegewyde Suid-Afrikaners oor die klas-, ras- en kulturele spektrum heen bely dat hulle – soos nog nooit tevore nie – onseker en kwesbaar voel sedert 1994.

Só het prof. Njabulo Ndebele, vise-kanselier van die Universiteit van Kaapstad, gesê in die Universiteit van die Vrystaat (UV) se eerste koning Moshoeshoe-gedenklesing.

Die onderwerp was Reflections on the leadership challenges in South Africa.
Wanneer ontembare optimiste beken hulle voel dinge is van stryk, versprei die naarheid van angs. “Dit moet iets te doen hê met ’n ophoping van gebeure wat die gevoel van dreigende inploffing oordra.”

’n Gevoel heers dat Suid-Afrika ’n baie komplekse samelewing het wat liewer eenvoudige, gesentraliseerde beheer voortbring in die hoop dat dienslewering dan beter en vinniger gedryf kan word. Die kompleksiteit van beheer word dan in ’n enkele struktuur van gesag gevestig, eerder as in die afgewentelde strukture soos wat in die Grondwet beoog word.

Dat die afgewentelde strukture nie hul grondwetlik-gedefinieerde rolle verwerklik nie, moenie toegeskryf word aan die mislukking van die beheermeganisme nie.

“Dit is te vroeg om te sê dat wat ons sedert 1994 bereik het, nie gewerk het nie,” het Ndebele gesê.
Dit lyk of ’n kombinasie van omstandighede tot die “gevoel van ontknoping” lei.
“Ek wil dit vermy om te sê: ‘Kyk na Khutsong’, asof u sal verstaan wat ek bedoel wanneer ek sê u moet na Khutsong kyk.”
Sulke kennis lei tot wanhoop, want dit roep ’n werklikheid op wat só oorweldigend is dat dit fatalisties kan wees.
Ndebele het gesê niks kon meer vreesaanjaend wees as toe ’n komplot van die Boeremag oopgevlek en sekere Boeremaglede aangekeer is nie.

Sekere Boeremaglede het van ’n maksimum-sekuriteit-tronk ontsnap. “Sover ek weet, is hulle nie weer gevang nie.
“Wat is gedoen om die gaping te oorbrug?” was een van sy vrae hieroor.
“Van só ’n belangrike saak weet die publiek nie baie nie. Die karige kommunikasie kan die gevaarlike boodskap uitdra dat óf niks gedoen word nie, óf die staat in dié saak misluk.”

Hy het gevra: “Hoekom het die kwessie van munisipale afbakening tot die situasie in Khutsong gelei? Dit lyk of die probleem voortgaan, sonder ’n oplossing in sig.”

’n Aantal soortgelyke, oënskynlik plaaslike rebellies het oor die land heen plaasgevind. “Is hier ’n patroon?”
Ndebele het na die onlangse verhoor van oud-adj.pres. Jacob Zuma, wat van verkragting aangekla was, verwys.
Dié drama blyk ver van oor te wees. Dit beloof “om ons almal sonder verligting te hou, in ’n toestand van angs”.
Die gemene draad van dié gebeure is die gevoel van ’n oneindige spiraal van probleme wat vertroue tap. Daar kan ’n sterk suggestie in al dié gebeure wees “dat ons dalk nooit sosiale samehang in Suid-Afrika gehad het nie...”

“Wat ons sekerlik oor dekades gehad het, is ’n mobiliserende visie. Kan dit wees dat die mobiliserende visie onder die gewig van die werklikheid en omvang van maatskaplike heropbouing kraak en dat die legitieme raamwerk om oor dié probleme te debatteer ineenstort?”

‘Swart mense staar hulself in die gesig’
DIE swart meerderheid staar homself nou in die gesig: dalk werklik vir die eerste keer sedert 1994.
Só het prof. Njabulo Ndebele gesê toe hy die koning Moshoeshoe-gedenklesing by die Universiteit van die Vrystaat in Bloemfontein gelewer het.

Hy het gesê dit lyk of Suid-Afrika ’n meganisme nodig het om selfvertroue te bou.
Deur dié meganisme “kan ons die situasie waarin ons is, erken, wat dit ook al is”.
“Ons het ’n meganisme nodig wat die verskillende posisies van die mededingers sal bevestig en hul eerlikheid sal bekragtig op ’n manier wat die publiek vertroue sal gee dat werklike oplossings moontlik is.”

Dit is dié soort “openheid wat nooit maklik kom nie”, wat lei tot deurbraak-oplossings.
Ndebele het gesê ’n komplekse demokrasie soos Suid-Afrika s’n kan nie oorleef met ’n enkele gesag nie.
Net veelvuldige owerhede binne ’n grondwetlike raamwerk “het ’n ware kans”.
“Kan ’n deel van die probleem wees dat ons nie in staat is om die idee van ‘opposisie’ te hanteer nie?
“Ons is verskrik dat enige van ons ‘die opposisie’ kan word.
“Dit is tyd dat ons die koms voorsien van ’n oomblik wanneer daar nie meer ’n enkele, oorweldigende, dominante politieke mag is soos wat nou die geval is nie.”

Ndebele het gesê: “Ek glo ons het dalk ’n oomblik bereik wat nie fundamenteel verskillend is nie van die ontnugterende, tóg hartversterkende nasiebourealiteite wat gelei het tot Kemptonpark in die vroeë jare negentig.”

“Die verskil tussen toe en nou is dat die swart meerderheid nie nou na wit landgenote oor die onderhandelingstafel kyk nie.

“Die swart meerderheid staar homself in die gesig: dalk werklik vir die eerste keer sedert 1994.”
Dit is weer “tyd vir visie”, het Ndebele gesê.

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