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13 September 2023 | Story Samkelo Fetile | Photo Supplied
Agriculture Supply Chain - Ukraine
On Thursday 7 September 2023, the University of the Free State (UFS) presented its fifth webinar titled, The need for a global and regional plan/approach to respond to the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, as part of the 2023 Thought-Leader Webinar Series.

Africa must avoid being instrumentalised by external conflict

In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the world has been grappling with the far-reaching consequences of this conflict. The effects can be felt globally – affecting economies, supply chains, and vital issues on the international agenda. These are some of the points discussed in the recent Thought-Leader webinar held by the University of the Free State (UFS). The webinar titled, The need for a global and regional plan/approach to respond to the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, brought together experts such as Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa; Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, Chief Executive of the South African Institute of International Affairs; Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Chairperson of the Institute for Security Studies; and Prof Philippe Burger, Dean of the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, UFS.

The webinar was facilitated by Prof Francis Petersen, Vice-Chancellor and Principal of the UFS.

Exploring Africa’s long-term future

Dr Cilliers delved into the long-term future of Africa; drawing comprehensive insights, his analysis highlighted the global shifts and their impact on the continent. He projected that China would surpass the United States as the world's most powerful country by mid-century, emphasising the need for Africa to navigate relations with both China, the EU, and the US for its development.

Four global scenarios were presented by Dr Cilliers: a sustainable world, a divided world, a world at war, and a growth world. The most probable scenario appeared to be a divided world, characterised by fragmented international relations and a growing divide between the wealthy West and the rest of the world. He stressed the importance of Africa pursuing geopolitical stability, avoiding being instrumentalised by external conflicts, and working towards a fair, rules-based global system.

He also touched on Russia's influence in Africa, noting its role in proxy wars and coups d'etat aimed at disrupting Western influence. “While Russia's direct presence in Africa was relatively small, its capacity to undermine the West and impact Africa's development prospects was significant,” said Dr Cilliers. He cautioned against overestimating Russia's influence and emphasised the need for a more nuanced understanding of the complex factors affecting Africa's future.

Global paradigm shifts

Sidiropoulos placed the ongoing war and global developments in a broader context, emphasising the need for a significant shift in how we perceive the world and its norms, calling for changes in economics, politics, and even ideology. Regarding the Ukraine conflict, she noted its role as a proxy and European war with far-reaching global consequences, highlighting the importance of understanding its historical context.

She discussed the evolving dynamics of the Ukraine conflict, where neither side has achieved its desired outcomes. She emphasised the potential for war fatigue and the need to consider alternative pathways, such as dialogue and negotiation, to avoid a frozen conflict or an outright victory by one party. She also underscored Russia's continued relevance as a great power with nuclear capabilities, prompting questions about the future of European security arrangements.

Shifting her focus to South Africa and Africa as a whole, Sidiropoulos stressed the importance of understanding the foreign policy of major global players such as Russia, China, and India. “As these countries rise in influence, it becomes essential to navigate their policies, both in terms of national interest and values,” she added.

Nonalignment and South Africa's foreign policy challenges

Sidiropoulos discussed the challenges presented by South Africa’s non-aligned stance. “There is a need for a coherent government-wide strategy, clear messaging, and the ability to make decisions based on issues and national interests rather than being automatically aligned with one camp or another.” The importance of preserving policy space and balancing economic interests with fundamental principles in international relations was emphasised.

She called on African countries to adopt a more proactive stance in shaping their path and ensuring that national interest serves the citizens and society, not just the elite. She stressed the importance of economic independence, not isolation, by leveraging opportunities such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), diversifying production, and strengthening governance for accountability.

Strengthening regional value chains

Sihlobo emphasised the vulnerability of the continent's food supplies and stressed Africa's dependence on food imports, highlighting that the continent imports approximately $80 billion worth of agricultural food, fibre, and beverage products. “Vulnerabilities in the food supply chain existed before the war due to factors such as drought, conflicts in East Africa, and COVID-19 supply chain disruptions. These vulnerabilities disproportionately affected Africa's poor households,” said Sihlobo.

South Africa, in contrast to much of Africa, exports nearly half of its agricultural production, amounting to around $13 billion in value. Despite exporting record volumes in 2022, South Africa has not escaped the price transmission effects of global disruptions, resulting in food inflation concerns. However, South Africa's situation was relatively better due to its export-oriented agriculture.

Sihlobo emphasised the need for Africa to strengthen regional value chains to insulate itself from external shocks. “Regional cooperation, productivity improvements, infrastructure development, and investments are essential for Africa's agricultural sector to thrive,” he added.

To enhance agricultural productivity in Africa, Sihlobo highlighted the importance of political stability, good governance, and infrastructure development. Productivity gains must replace extensive land expansion, with governments promoting sustainable agricultural practices.

Need for ongoing containment

Prof Burger highlighted the importance of containment as a policy approach to address the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis. He emphasised the need to consider the moral, economic, and political dimensions of the crisis, while recognising its historical context.

He noted that the initial invasion of Ukraine led to spikes in global inflation. However, subsequent developments, including a military containment, contributed to a decrease in inflation rates. He likened the current military stalemate to World War I's trench warfare and the lack of significant military progress for protracted periods of time. He also highlighted that the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) of 2022 has expired, and Russia has shown reluctance to renew it. This ongoing stalemate and the risks associated with the non-renewal of the BSGI have raised questions about the prospects of the crisis.

Prof Burger discussed the concept of containment, differentiating between long-run changes in input prices and short-term fluctuations. “Successful containment involves interventions that prevent price movements from deviating significantly from long-term levels.” He pointed to successful containment interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis. These measures included economic stimuli, vaccine distribution, rerouting of grain exports, and ensuring stable energy supply.

He briefly discussed the role of the expanded BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), which now includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and Argentina, in the context of the crisis. While acknowledging divisions within the group, he noted that BRICS allows China and India to pursue their international programmes more independently.

Prof Burger concluded by highlighting the need for containment in the face of a long-term military stalemate or the absence of a clear Ukrainian victory. He argued that containment in the form of a long-term ceasefire as in the Kashmir and Korea conflicts might be the most viable solution. In addition, the stability of the Putin regime and Western support for the Zelensky government would be crucial factors in determining the trajectory of the crisis.


WATCH: 2023 UFS Thought-Leader Series

News Archive

A time to celebrate: Autumn graduations
2016-04-07

General graduation information 
Livestreaming

The first series of graduations for the year are upon us. Graduates from all seven faculties, the Business School, and the School of Open Learning at the University of the Free State (UFS) will be celebrating their academic achievements. A total of 3681 qualifications will be conferred at ceremonies on the Bloemfontein Campus from 12 to 15 April 2016.

Sejakhumo Makhetha, daughter of our Vice-Rector: Student Affairs and External Relations, Dr Choice Makhetha, will be among the graduates receiving BA Governance and Political Transformation degrees. Coincidently, Dr Makhetha obtained her PhD in Political Science in 2003 at the UFS. Sejakhumo Makhetha is currently busy with her postgraduate diploma in the same field.

The four-day celebration symbolises the UFS prerogative as an institution to transform lives by producing leaders of tomorrow. Dr Muavia Gallie, Dr Sello Hatang, Dawie Roodt, and Nikiwe Bikitsha are expected to address these future leaders and guests at these ceremonies.

Addressed by the best

On the guest speaker line-up, we have Dr Gallie, a School and District Turnaround Strategist and education activist, who has been identified as one of the 10 Most Impressive Public Leaders for 2015 by the UFS Vice-Chancellor and Rector, Prof Jonathan Jansen. The former Head of Operations, Human Resources and Information and Communication Technology at the South African Council for Educators (SACE) has had more than 30 years of experience in education.

Dr Gallie and Dr Hatang will address graduates of the Faculties of Education, Health Sciences, Law, and Theology on 12 April 2016. Dr Hatang is the Chief Executive of the Nelson Mandela Foundation. In addition to being a founding member of the Advisory Council of the Council for the Advancement of the South African Constitution, Hatang has had the privilege of serving as the Head of Information Communications, and spokesperson for the South African Human Rights Commission as well as Director: South African History Archive at Wits University.

Dawie Roodt, founder, director, and chief economist of the Efficient Group, will speak at the Faculty of Economic and Management Science ceremony on 14 April 2016. This nationally-renowned economist boasts 30 years of experience in monetary and fiscal policy, and is one of the most referenced authors. In 2013, he published Tax, Lies and Red Tape.

As one of South Africa’s leading journalists, Nikiwe Bikitsha will draw on her 20-year career in radio, television, and journalism to address the Faculty of the Humanities graduates on the final day of graduations. Through her passion for Africa’s economic development and women empowerment, the co-founder and CEO of Amargi Media has been a successful Programme Director for UN, IMF and AU-related events.

 

Details of event

Dates: 12, 13, 14, 15 April 2016

Times: 09:00 and 14:30

Venue: Callie Human Centre, Bloemfontein Campus, University of the Free State

 

 

 

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