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Eugene Msizi Buthelezi
Eugene Msizi Buthelezi, nGAP Lecturer in the Department of Economics and Finance, University of the Free State.

Opinion article by Eugene Msizi Buthelezi, nGAP Lecturer in the Department of Economics and Finance, University of the Free State. 


Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered the 2024 National Budget Speech on Wednesday 21 February 2024. The speech centred around promoting economic growth, addressing inequality, and ensuring sustainable development in South Africa. Minister Godongwana emphasised the importance of expanding the national pie through economic measures while also focusing on the distribution of resources to achieve social and economic justice. Monetary policy spillover to fiscal policy was evident, as the minister referenced the utilisation of the Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account (GFECRA). This budget speech came at a time of significant economic challenges in South Africa, including the following:

 

  • Falling economic growth projection, reflecting that there are still persistent challenges in addressing unemployment, poverty, and inequality.
  • Eskom's financial woes and operational inefficiencies, which remain a critical concern.
  • Rising government debt, budget deficits, and debt-service expenses are among current pressing issues.
  • Tax adjustments, which are needed more than ever to bolster government revenue, alongside social grant increases to support vulnerable populations. 
  • Public-private partnerships for economic growth, job creation, and enhanced productivity.

Domestic economy and fiscal outlook 

The growth outlook for South Africa between 2024 and 2026 is expected to average 1,6%, indicating a shortfall of 3,4% from the targeted economic growth of 5% as outlined in the National Development Plan's vision for 2030. This discrepancy reflects the challenges facing the South African economy in addressing issues such as unemployment, poverty, and inequality. Nevertheless, the minister pointed out key policy initiatives in the budget speech. This included the implementation of measures to enhance procurement efficiency and promote local industrialisation. Moreover, structural reform in sectors such as electricity, logistics, water, and telecommunications to stimulate growth.

On the other hand, the elephant in the room – Eskom – remains a significant challenge in the South African economy. Eskom, the state-owned electricity utility, has been plagued by financial difficulties, operational inefficiencies, and power supply constraints, leading to frequent load shedding and disruption of economic activities. However, in the 2024 Budget Speech, Eskom was granted a debt-relief plan to alleviate its financial burden and allow the entity to focus on its core business operations. It was noted that Eskom's coal-fired power stations are being fixed and renewable energy projects are in the pipeline to promote and further enhance energy security. These interventions will ensure operational efficiency, enhance energy security, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, reduce the frequency of load shedding, and minimise disruptions to businesses and households. Despite this, Eskom may still require significant financial investments, potentially increasing the financial burden. Moreover, integrating renewable energy and restructuring Eskom's operations may face resistance or challenges in implementation, leading to transitional disruptions.

In terms of infrastructure, the minister pointed out that partnerships between the public and private sectors to finance projects are key to delivering infrastructure projects. It is expected that infrastructure investment will stimulate economic growth, create jobs, and boost productivity. However, large-scale infrastructure projects carry financial risks, including cost overruns, delays, and potential budget deficits that could strain public finances. Fiscal authorities have shown a lack of monitoring and evaluation, as the public is still awaiting a report on the generation of sustainable employment and infrastructure projects that have contributed to the overall economic growth, which is a point of concern. On the other hand, infrastructure investment may be vulnerable to corruption, mismanagement, and lack of transparency, leading to inefficiencies and suboptimal outcomes. These are some of the aspects that fiscal authorities need to look at and put necessary measures in place to ensure the success of infrastructure projects. Some of the key macroeconomic variables that were highlighted in the budget speech are the following:

  • The national government's debt, which is projected to reach approximately 75,3% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2025/26.
  • The budget deficit for 2023/24, which is expected to worsen to 4,9% of the GDP. 
  • The debt-service expenses which are anticipated to increase is now estimated at R356 billion, representing more than 20% of revenue – surpassing the budgets allocated for social protection, health, or peace and security. 

Given the economic challenges reflected in these macroeconomic variables, the minister has indicated that immediate reform will be through the 30% utilisation of the GFECRA, which has grown to more than R500 billion. Therefore, the government plans to use R150 billion from GFECRA, expecting a decline of approximately R30,2 billion in government debt servicing costs over the 2024 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF). The use of the account is effective, because the account provides liquidity in times of need, allowing the government to meet its financial obligations without resorting to external borrowing. Given that the account resides with monetary authorities in the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), fiscal authorities will find that GFECRA has restrictions on utilisation, limiting the government's flexibility in responding to immediate financial needs or emergencies. Moreover, depending on the size and management of the GFECRA, it could impact market perceptions of the country's financial health and credibility.

Tax and revenue 

The weak performance of the economy has been identified as a significant factor contributing to a sharp decline in tax revenue collection for 2023/24. It has been observed that tax revenue for 2023/24 is R56,1 billion lower than estimated in 2023. The minister highlighted the implementation of a global minimum corporate tax, which is projected to generate R8 billion in corporate tax revenue by 2026/27. Additionally, measures will be taken to target multinational corporations with annual revenue exceeding a certain threshold. General solutions for revenue generation were proposed, which included the following: 

  • Focusing on excise duties for alcohol products, with increases ranging between 6,7% and 7,2% for 2024/25
  • A 4,7% increase in tobacco excise duties on cigarettes. 

Implementing these tax proposals and improving revenue collection will boost government revenue, allowing for the funding of essential services, infrastructure projects, and social programmes. This enhanced revenue generation will also contribute to fiscal stability by reducing budget deficits and public debt levels over time. However, fiscal authorities must prioritise modernising tax administration and combating illicit activities to enhance tax compliance, ensuring that all taxpayers contribute their fair share.

Social security and government spending  

In the budget speech, the minister demonstrated an awareness of the pressing realities confronting South African society by announcing adjustments to social grants in line with inflation. The grant changes included, among others 

  • R50 increase to the foster care grant;
  • Child Support Grant increases from R510 to R530;
  • Older Person’s Grant increases by R90 on 1 April and R10 in October 2024; and
  • COVID-19 Social Relief of Distress Grant of R350.

However, it is crucial to recognise that these increases may still fall short of adequately addressing the needs of those living below the poverty line, especially considering the high levels of unemployment and the rising cost of living. Moreover, while there is a commendable effort to provide support through these grant adjustments, fiscal constraints pose significant limitations. The government must navigate carefully to ensure that these increases are sustainable within the broader fiscal framework. Balancing the imperative to support vulnerable populations with fiscal prudence is a delicate task, requiring careful consideration of both short-term relief measures and long-term fiscal sustainability. Ultimately, while the announced increases in social grants represent a step towards addressing the immediate needs of vulnerable communities, policy makers must continue evaluating and refining these measures to ensure they effectively alleviate poverty and inequality while remaining fiscally responsible. Other critical government spending was pointed out in the budget speech, including the following: 

  • An additional R25,7 billion was allocated to the education sector’s wages.
  • Childhood development grants increased to R2 billion over the medium term.
  • The health sector to be allocated a total of R848 billion over the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) for health.
  • An allocation of R61,4 billion for employment programmes over the medium term.
  • A R7,4 billion for the Presidential Employment Initiative.

The effectiveness of government spending by increasing wages in the education sector is welcome, as it could attract and retain qualified educators. However, it is essential to consider whether these increases are accompanied by measures to address broader challenges within the education system. Simply increasing wages without addressing issues such as inadequate infrastructure, resource shortages, and administrative inefficiencies may limit the overall impact on educational outcomes. To maximise effectiveness, it is crucial for the government to also invest in building new schools, providing resources for the day-to-day running of schools, and implementing reforms to improve the quality of education.

On the other hand, regarding spending on employment programmes and initiatives to address unemployment, effectiveness will depend on fiscal authorities' design and implementation of these programmes. Allocating funds to employment programmes could potentially create job opportunities and reduce unemployment rates, particularly among artisans and recent graduates. However, there is still a need for alignment of employment programmes with the needs of the labour market, the provision of relevant skills training and support services, and the creation of sustainable job opportunities. Additionally, effective monitoring and evaluation mechanisms are essential to ensure that spending on employment programmes yields tangible outcomes.

In conclusion, the 2024 Budget Speech touched upon various critical challenges facing the nation, including economic growth constraints, Eskom's challenges, rising government debt, tax revenue shortfalls, and the need for social security enhancements. The budget speech regained the need to address these challenges effectively and pointed out the importance of ensuring that fiscal policies prioritise equitable distribution of resources and effective management of public finances. Key areas for fiscal policy focus included continued investment in infrastructure projects, coupled with public-private partnerships, which can stimulate economic growth, create jobs, and enhance productivity. It has been noted that enhancing revenue generation through effective tax policies, such as corporate tax reforms and excise duty adjustments, can bolster government revenue. On the other hand, social grant adjustments were deemed to be vital for supporting vulnerable populations, but efforts to address poverty and inequality should extend beyond grant increases. The speech acknowledged that investments in education, health care, and employment programmes are essential to promote inclusive growth and reduce socio-economic disparities.

Did the budget speech address current challenges? Yes, the 2024 Budget Speech addressed many of the current challenges facing South Africa. However, moving forward, fiscal authorities need to prioritise structural reforms, innovation, and inclusive economic development strategies to address South Africa's economic and social challenges effectively. Exploring opportunities for public-private collaboration, leveraging technology for efficient service delivery, and promoting entrepreneurship and small business development can contribute to long-term sustainable growth and prosperity. Additionally, maintaining a conducive policy environment, fostering investor confidence, and strengthening governance and institutional capacity are crucial for achieving lasting economic resilience and social progress.

  • The views presented here are mine, they do not represent the views and policy position of the institution I am affiliated with. I do this for community outreach as a person in academics only.

News Archive

During 2011: Appointments
2011-12-01

Dr Lis Lange: Senior Director: DIRAP

Description: 2011 Appointments_Lis Lange Tags: 2011 Appointments_Lis Lange

Dr Lis Lange, an Argentinean by birth, immigrated to South Africa twenty years ago – a few weeks after Nelson Mandela had walked through the gates of Victor Verster. For the past ten years, she has been involved in quality assurance for higher education institutions at the Council on Higher Education at national level.

She is assisting our university in the areas of quality assurance and academic planning, contributing to the development of deep intellectual debate and multi-disciplinary research.


Prof. Charles Dumas, Department of Drama and Theatre Arts

Description: 2011 Appointments_Charles Dumas Tags: 2011 Appointments_Charles Dumas

Prof. Charles Dumas, Extraordinary Professor in our Department of Drama and Theatre Arts, will be spending three months per year for the next three years at our university to help develop filmmaking, specifically focusing on the development of the Video Unit Planned for the Department.

Prof. Dumas started the year off with the production, Our Father’s Daughters, which was produced during the Mini-festival as well as at the Reitz Four reconciliation meeting. The production was also turned into a short film. Prof. Dumas gave film-acting classes to the third-year drama students. He directed multiple productions, such as the third-year module production Ipi Zombi, the Grahamstown Festival production, Seven Guitars and the Dance/drama production, Race, Reconciliation and the Reitz Four.


Prof. Daniel Plaatjies, UFS Business School

Description: 2011 Appointments_Daniel Plaatjies Tags: 2011 Appointments_Daniel Plaatjies

Prof. Daniel Plaatjies is the former Director and Head of the Graduate School of Public and Development Management at the University of the Witwatersrand. He was mainly responsible for the leading, directing and managing of strategic academic programmes, teaching, research, governance, service management and monitoring. Prof. Plaatjies, who was appointed as Visiting Professor at our Business School this year, will as part of his new duties at our Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, be lecturing part-time and supervise our PhD students.


Prof. Johann Neethling, Department of Private Law

Description: 2011 Appointments_Johann Neethling Tags: 2011 Appointments_Johann Neethling

Prof. Johann Neethling’s career is now completing its full circle with his appointment as Senior Professor in our Department of Private Law. In 1965 he was a first-year at this university. With his nine law text books and nearly 200 articles, together with 40 years’ experience in academic training he is of inestimable value to this Department. His publications contribute to the establishment of our university as a research institute.


Prof. Hussein Solomon, Department of Political Science

 Description: 2011 Appointments_Hussein Solomon Tags: 2011 Appointments_Hussein Solomon

Prof. Hussein Solomon joined our university this year as Senior Professor in the Department of Political Science. Formerly he worked in peace NGOs, advised diplomats and acts as a serving officer in the South African Air Force.

His area of research expertise includes conflict and conflict resolution in Africa; South African Foreign Policy; international relations theory; religious fundamentalism and population movements within the developing world. He is also the author of a number of books, including one on global jihad and one on India's secret relationship with apartheid South Africa.

He is also member of the internationally renowned Our Humanity in the Balance (OHIB) organisation, where his role is to bring these disparate communities together and to focus energies on a common project.


Prof. André Keet, International Institute for Studies in Race, Reconciliation and Social Justice

Description: 2011 Appointments_Andre Keet Tags: 2011 Appointments_Andre Keet

Prof. André Keet, our Director of the International Institute for Studies in Race, Reconciliation and Social Justice, joined the University of Pretoria on a part-time basis in 2008, whilst being a Commissioner on the Commission for Gender Equality. Later he left the Commission and joined the University of Fort Hare. “I was happy to join academia and now also serve on the Stellenbosch University Council; therefore I am very aware of the challenges facing higher education,” he said.

His vision for the Institute is to support higher-education transformation, promote non-discrimination, reconciliation and human rights, build national, regional and international networks, and developing ‘new’ languages, knowledge and discourses for reconciliation and social justice, all to the benefit of our university and South Africa.”


Prof. Helene Strauss, Department of English

Description: 2011 Appointments_Helena Strauss Tags: 2011 Appointments_Helena Strauss

Prof. Helene Strauss completed her PhD at the University of Western Ontario, London, Canada, where she taught courses on Film Studies, Children’s Literature and South African Literature and Culture. “I was subsequently appointed as an Assistant Professor in the Department of English and Cultural Studies at McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada.” She joined our Department of English this year.

Prof. Strauss has an on-going preoccupation with questions concerning social justice, race, gender and ethical interpersonal interaction in South Africa and beyond.


Prof. EC Ejiogu, Centre for Africa Studies

Description: 2011 Appointments_EC Ejiogu Tags: 2011 Appointments_EC Ejiogu

After 22 years in the United States of America, Prof. EC Ejiogu decided to return to Africa – to his roots – to join our university’s Centre for Africa Studies at the beginning of 2011.

Before joining the Centre, he was Assistant Research Professor in the Centre for Innovation at the University of Maryland, College Park. As Senior Researcher at the Centre, he has already helped with the streamlining of the academic programme, restructuring it to enable students to gain skills necessary to deliver a research proposal towards a dissertation after their three years of study. He has also taken up PhD and Master’s supervision.

His latest publications include a book published in March 2011 with the title, Roots of Political Instability in Nigeria, and a book co-edited with Prof. Kwandiwe Kondlo, Director of the Centre for Africa Studies, Africa in focus: Governance in the 21st century, published in April 2011.


Pura Mgolombane, Vice-Dean: Student Affairs

Description: 2011 Appointments_Pura Tags: 2011 Appointments_Pura

Bringing with him a decade of experience in Student Affairs our new Assistant-Dean for Student Life and Leadership, Pura Mgolombane, has big plans for student development. He says his office wants to help Kovsies increase its throughput rate and produce socially well-adjusted and employable graduates in South Africa, the continent and anywhere in the world.

Before joining Kovsies, he was employed as Director: Student Life, Governance and Culture at Walter Sisulu University. Pura, who has a background in Human Resources, Business Management and Corporate Law, says his academic training has empowered him with skills to ensure that the Student Life and Leadership is properly led, governed and managed.


Prof. Hasina Ebrahim, School for Social Sciences and Language Education

Description: 2011 Appointments_Hasina Ebrahim Tags: 2011 Appointments_Hasina Ebrahim

This former academic from the University of Kwa-Zulu Natal was appointed as Associate Professor at our School for Social Sciences and Language Education in the Faculty of Education. Amongst others, she is the project coordinator for the Faculty’s Early Childhood and Foundation Phase Teacher Education Programme and the MEd and PhD supervisor in the programme.

Prof. Ebrahim is also the Deputy-President of the first South African Research Association for Early Childhood Education (birth to nine). “This is certainly a milestone to profile the university in terms of its thrust towards excellence in research,” she says. One of the main aims of the association is to shape the research agenda for a marginalised field in South Africa. 


Prof. Corli Witthuhn, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences

 Description: 2011 Appointments_Corli Witthuhn Tags: 2011 Appointments_Corli Witthuhn

Prof. Corli Witthuhn, a former Bloemfonteiner, attained her PhD in Microbiology at our university. Therafter, in 1999, she was appointed as a lecturer at Stellenbosch University and later as Vice-Dean.

Currently she is our Vice-Dean in the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences. She hopes to sustain her research here at our University.

Her life motto? “Opportunities are presented in the form of obstacles,” she says.
 


Prof. Melanie Walker

Description: 2011 Appointments_Melanie Walker Tags: 2011 Appointments_Melanie Walker

Prof. Melanie Walker is a prominent South African scholar who has been working as Professor of Higher Education Studies at the world-leading University of Nottingham in the UK, where she been Director of Postgraduate Students and a Director of Research in the Faculty of Social Sciences. She will join the University of the Free State in February 2012 as Senior University Professor in the Postgraduate School.

She is a graduate of the University of KwaZulu-Natal and the University of Cape Town, where she completed her PhD, after teaching in disadvantaged secondary schools for a number of years. Prior to working at Nottingham she worked at the Universities of Sheffield, West of England and Glasgow, as well as the Universities of Cape Town and the Western Cape. She is also a Fellow of the Human Development and Capability Association. She is currently Director of Research Training and a senior researcher in the EU-funded Marie Curie EDUWEL project, which includes senior researchers from eight European countries and 15 early-stage researchers.

With a long-standing commitment to social-justice research and equality practices, she is currently widely recognised internationally as leading in the application of the capability approach and human development to higher education policy and practice. Among others, she has led or participated in research projects funded by the NRF (South Africa), the Higher Education Academy (UK), HEFCE (UK), EU, and ESRC/DfID, which funded the Public-Good Professionals’ Capability Index research project. 
 

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