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13 February 2024 Photo SUPPLIED
Prof Sethulego Matebesi
Prof Sethulego Matebesi is an Associate Professor and Head of the Department of Sociology at the University of the Free State (UFS).

Opinion article by Prof Sethulego Matebesi, Associate Professor and Head of the Department of Sociology, University of the Free State.


President Cyril Ramaphosa’s 2024 State of the Nation Address (SONA) has, as expected, drawn mixed reactions. The speech placed strong emphasis on addressing significant sources of discontent and division within the country, such as gender-based violence, unemployment, crime, load shedding, poor service delivery, and corruption. The speech underscored the President’s commitment to economic reform and job creation through initiatives such as the Presidential Youth Employment Intervention

At a time when South Africa is on the eve of national and provincial elections, where the youth hold immense potential to shape the outcome – if the registrations can translate into voting – it is interesting to note that the President’s approach of using the analogy of young ‘Tintswalo’ has drawn considerable debate.

‘Tintswalo’ and President Ramaphosa’s soft-line approach

While the President’s approach in utilising the positive life trajectory of Tintswalo – a young girl born in democratic South Africa – may have been intended to inspire hope and showcase progress for many since the end of apartheid, critics argue that it overlooks the persistent challenges that many young citizens still face. But is focusing on a single success story providing a misleading impression of the overall state of the nation and downplaying the continuous challenges South Africa faces?

Public opinion can vary, and different individuals and groups may have different perspectives on the nation’s current state. For many, the ANC-led government has created a nurturing environment through various policy interventions, and a system of social transfers geared towards sustainable and productive investment in citizens. This view was supported by the World Bank, which described the country’s policies and programmes for the poor as ‘effective, well-targeted, and providing sizeable benefits to the poorest households.’ 

Indeed, the post-apartheid environment and individual agency enabled today’s Tintswalos to prosper. These deliberate programmes and policy interventions provide an environment that fosters educational attainment, instils values, and encourages personal growth. However, it is important to acknowledge that not all young people have equal access to resources and opportunities.

President Ramaphosa did not appear harsh, but rather dignified in using political persuasion to convince the world of the government’s resolve to strive for equitable access to education, health care, and social services to ensure that all young people have a fair chance to prosper. 

And, of course, relying on political persuasion is not hard. 

The President, an advocate of the soft line approach, has perfected the art of smothering citizens with embraces – smothering that has lately been peppered with the phrase: ‘ba rata kapa ha ba rate (whether they like it or not), we have done well.’ He did not appear harsh each time he uttered this phrase, but dignified in the conviction of the achievements of the government he has been leading since February 2018. However, the effect of the Tintswalo analogy – accentuating the state’s weaknesses rather than obscuring them – is the opposite of what was intended.

The bottom line is that the number of unemployed, politically disengaged, and disgruntled youth is growing, as is their ferocity.

Shrinking fiscal resources and the central role of institutions

As South Africa achieves a significant 30-year milestone of political freedom, the protection of individual freedoms and the establishment of institutions to safeguard democratic values stand as noteworthy achievements. However, amid the celebrations, shrinking fiscal resources and the overarching impact of increasingly reduced budget cuts for the higher education sector will hamper the progress of a new generation of Tintswalos. It has repeatedly been proven that education is an essential pillar of a country’s economy.

In Why nations fail: The origins of power, prosperity and poverty, Acemoglu and Robinson underscore the significance of inclusive economic institutions. They argue that countries differ in their economic success because of their different institutions, the rules influencing how the economy works, and the incentives that motivate people. 

Consider for a moment the difference between teenagers in North and South Korea.

According to these scholars, those in the North grow up in poverty and know that they will not become prosperous due to the propaganda they are fed in school. Those in the South obtain a good education, with incentives encouraging entrepreneurial initiative and creativity.

In South Africa, one of the most disheartening anomalies of our nation’s state is the blatant failure to ensure consequential management for the recurring unauthorised, irregular, fruitless, and wasteful expenditure by municipalities and state institutions reported by the Auditor-General. This is indicative of political power that is exercised arbitrarily.

In steering its future development, a South Africa that embraces diversity, prioritises economic recovery, invests in education, and leverages the incentives provided by state institutions will ensure equitable access to services and opportunities and allow all young people a fair chance to prosper, regardless of political affiliation.

News Archive

Fight against Ebola virus requires more research
2014-10-22

 

Dr Abdon Atangana
Photo: Ifa Tshishonge
Dr Abdon Atangana, a postdoctoral researcher in the Institute for Groundwater Studies at the University of the Free State (UFS), wrote an article related to the Ebola virus: Modelling the Ebola haemorrhagic fever with the beta-derivative: Deathly infection disease in West African countries.

“The filoviruses belong to a virus family named filoviridae. This virus can cause unembellished haemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman monkeys. In literature, only two members of this virus family have been mentioned, namely the Marburg virus and the Ebola virus. However, so far only five species of the Ebola virus have been identified, including:  Ivory Coast, Sudan, Zaire, Reston and Bundibugyo.

“Among these families, the Ebola virus is the only member of the Zaire Ebola virus species and also the most dangerous, being responsible for the largest number of outbreaks.

“Ebola is an unusual, but fatal virus that causes bleeding inside and outside the body. As the virus spreads through the body, it damages the immune system and organs. Ultimately, it causes the blood-clotting levels in cells to drop. This leads to severe, uncontrollable bleeding.

Since all physical problems can be modelled via mathematical equation, Dr Atangana aimed in his research (the paper was published in BioMed Research International with impact factor 2.701) to analyse the spread of this deadly disease using mathematical equations. We shall propose a model underpinning the spread of this disease in a given Sub-Saharan African country,” he said.

The mathematical equations are used to predict the future behaviour of the disease, especially the spread of the disease among the targeted population. These mathematical equations are called differential equation and are only using the concept of rate of change over time.

However, there is several definitions for derivative, and the choice of the derivative used for such a model is very important, because the more accurate the model, the better results will be obtained.  The classical derivative describes the change of rate, but it is an approximation of the real velocity of the object under study. The beta derivative is the modification of the classical derivative that takes into account the time scale and also has a new parameter that can be considered as the fractional order.  

“I have used the beta derivative to model the spread of the fatal disease called Ebola, which has killed many people in the West African countries, including Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia, since December 2013,” he said.

The constructed mathematical equations were called Atangana’s Beta Ebola System of Equations (ABESE). “We did the investigation of the stable endemic points and presented the Eigen-Values using the Jacobian method. The homotopy decomposition method was used to solve the resulted system of equations. The convergence of the method was presented and some numerical simulations were done for different values of beta.

“The simulations showed that our model is more realistic for all betas less than 0.5.  The model revealed that, if there were no recovery precaution for a given population in a West African country, the entire population of that country would all die in a very short period of time, even if the total number of the infected population is very small.  In simple terms, the prediction revealed a fast spread of the virus among the targeted population. These results can be used to educate and inform people about the rapid spread of the deadly disease,” he said.

The spread of Ebola among people only occurs through direct contact with the blood or body fluids of a person after symptoms have developed. Body fluid that may contain the Ebola virus includes saliva, mucus, vomit, faeces, sweat, tears, breast milk, urine and semen. Entry points include the nose, mouth, eyes, open wounds, cuts and abrasions. Note should be taken that contact with objects contaminated by the virus, particularly needles and syringes, may also transmit the infection.

“Based on the predictions in this paper, we are calling on more research regarding this disease; in particular, we are calling on researchers to pay attention to finding an efficient cure or more effective prevention, to reduce the risk of contamination,” Dr Atangana said.


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