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Prof Sethulego Matebesi
Prof Sethulego Matebesi is an Associate Professor and Head of the Department of Sociology at the University of the Free State (UFS).

Opinion article by Prof Sethulego Matebesi, Associate Professor and Head of the Department of Sociology, University of the Free State.


President Cyril Ramaphosa’s 2024 State of the Nation Address (SONA) has, as expected, drawn mixed reactions. The speech placed strong emphasis on addressing significant sources of discontent and division within the country, such as gender-based violence, unemployment, crime, load shedding, poor service delivery, and corruption. The speech underscored the President’s commitment to economic reform and job creation through initiatives such as the Presidential Youth Employment Intervention

At a time when South Africa is on the eve of national and provincial elections, where the youth hold immense potential to shape the outcome – if the registrations can translate into voting – it is interesting to note that the President’s approach of using the analogy of young ‘Tintswalo’ has drawn considerable debate.

‘Tintswalo’ and President Ramaphosa’s soft-line approach

While the President’s approach in utilising the positive life trajectory of Tintswalo – a young girl born in democratic South Africa – may have been intended to inspire hope and showcase progress for many since the end of apartheid, critics argue that it overlooks the persistent challenges that many young citizens still face. But is focusing on a single success story providing a misleading impression of the overall state of the nation and downplaying the continuous challenges South Africa faces?

Public opinion can vary, and different individuals and groups may have different perspectives on the nation’s current state. For many, the ANC-led government has created a nurturing environment through various policy interventions, and a system of social transfers geared towards sustainable and productive investment in citizens. This view was supported by the World Bank, which described the country’s policies and programmes for the poor as ‘effective, well-targeted, and providing sizeable benefits to the poorest households.’ 

Indeed, the post-apartheid environment and individual agency enabled today’s Tintswalos to prosper. These deliberate programmes and policy interventions provide an environment that fosters educational attainment, instils values, and encourages personal growth. However, it is important to acknowledge that not all young people have equal access to resources and opportunities.

President Ramaphosa did not appear harsh, but rather dignified in using political persuasion to convince the world of the government’s resolve to strive for equitable access to education, health care, and social services to ensure that all young people have a fair chance to prosper. 

And, of course, relying on political persuasion is not hard. 

The President, an advocate of the soft line approach, has perfected the art of smothering citizens with embraces – smothering that has lately been peppered with the phrase: ‘ba rata kapa ha ba rate (whether they like it or not), we have done well.’ He did not appear harsh each time he uttered this phrase, but dignified in the conviction of the achievements of the government he has been leading since February 2018. However, the effect of the Tintswalo analogy – accentuating the state’s weaknesses rather than obscuring them – is the opposite of what was intended.

The bottom line is that the number of unemployed, politically disengaged, and disgruntled youth is growing, as is their ferocity.

Shrinking fiscal resources and the central role of institutions

As South Africa achieves a significant 30-year milestone of political freedom, the protection of individual freedoms and the establishment of institutions to safeguard democratic values stand as noteworthy achievements. However, amid the celebrations, shrinking fiscal resources and the overarching impact of increasingly reduced budget cuts for the higher education sector will hamper the progress of a new generation of Tintswalos. It has repeatedly been proven that education is an essential pillar of a country’s economy.

In Why nations fail: The origins of power, prosperity and poverty, Acemoglu and Robinson underscore the significance of inclusive economic institutions. They argue that countries differ in their economic success because of their different institutions, the rules influencing how the economy works, and the incentives that motivate people. 

Consider for a moment the difference between teenagers in North and South Korea.

According to these scholars, those in the North grow up in poverty and know that they will not become prosperous due to the propaganda they are fed in school. Those in the South obtain a good education, with incentives encouraging entrepreneurial initiative and creativity.

In South Africa, one of the most disheartening anomalies of our nation’s state is the blatant failure to ensure consequential management for the recurring unauthorised, irregular, fruitless, and wasteful expenditure by municipalities and state institutions reported by the Auditor-General. This is indicative of political power that is exercised arbitrarily.

In steering its future development, a South Africa that embraces diversity, prioritises economic recovery, invests in education, and leverages the incentives provided by state institutions will ensure equitable access to services and opportunities and allow all young people a fair chance to prosper, regardless of political affiliation.

News Archive

Inaugural lecture: Prof André Pelser
2004-06-04

Tendencies and changes in the South African population structure in future decades.

Within the next five years South Africa will for the first time in the past century enter a period where the death rate will exceed the birth rate, largely due to the impact of HIV / AIDS.

According to sociologist Prof André Pelser, sociologist at the of the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Department of Sociology, the death rate exceeding the birthrate is only one of three demographic trends which will fundamentally change South Africa’s population structure in the following decades.

He was speaking at the UFS in Bloemfontein during his inaugural lecture as professor this week.

Prof Pelser said that according to some models the South African population will decrease within the next five decades by between 10 and 26 percent.

A second important trend which will impact on the population structure is the progressive ageing of the population.

He said the group above 65 years is the only age category in the South African population which will witness sharp increases in the next few decades.

In the next 50 years, the group younger than 15 years will reflect a decrease of 39% and those older than 65 years in South Africa will increase by approximately 110% in the next two decades.

“The systematic “greying” of the South African population will create the same economic and welfare issues as those with which governments in some more developed countries are already grappling,” said Prof Pelser.

A third trend affecting the South African population structure is the constant decrease in life expectancy.

Life expectancy at birth for the total population is projected to decrease from approximately 62 years at the beginning of the 1990’s to 43 years in 2015-2020, with sharp differences between the various population groups.

These tendencies and changes to the South African population structure have serious implications, he said.

For example, he said, the reduction in life expectancy could compromise national development objectives.

“It is estimated that more than a quarter of the economically active population will be infected with HIV by 2006,” said Prof Pelser.

The increase in the population, in age category 65, will place a financial burden on government and the economically active sector.

“Especially worrying is the fact that ever-increasing proportions of the state budget will be allocated to health and welfare services and this at the expense of other priorities like education, infrastructure, criminal justice system and trade and industry, to name but a few,” he said

“A comprehensive and integrated strategy is thus vitally important in addressing the overarching issues caused by changes in the population structure,” said Prof Pelser.

 

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