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From fragmentation to coalition: The SA election aftermath

27 June 2024 | Story Michelle Nöthling | Photo iStock

The UFS Centre for Gender and Africa Studies, in conjunction with the South African Institute of Race Relations (IRR), recently hosted the fifth instalment of the Africa Dialogue Series. The webinar series – established by Prof Hussein Solomon – has rapidly grown in stature. The latest discussion on the SA Election Aftermath: Economic, Security and Political Considerations drew high-profile international attendance that included several ambassadors, military attachés, and representatives of security communities.

“Part of the success of the Africa Dialogue Series,” Prof Solomon says, “is that we include a variety of speakers in each discussion. This ensures that the conversation remains relevant.”

Economic challenges amid coalition governments

Prof Philippe Burger, Dean of the UFS Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, opened the discussion by highlighting the complexities of coalition governments in South Africa – especially given the country’s lack of experience with such political arrangements. Prof Burger further pointed out the difficulty of managing coalitions amid economic stagnation, high unemployment, poverty, and mounting debt. At the time, Prof Burger forecast that a coalition with the Democratic Alliance (DA) might push for pro-market reforms, but that such an agreement could still suffer from instability due to ideological differences. Prof Burger predicted a ‘rocky five years’ ahead for any coalition government.

A shift in security strategy

Transitioning to security matters, Eeben Barlow, Chairman and CEO of Executive Outcomes, stressed the paramount importance of a robust national security strategy for the new government's stability and South Africa's interests. He advocated for a comprehensive reassessment of the current strategy, urging a shift from reactive policies to a proactive, pre-emptive approach. Barlow underscored the need to align intelligence, law enforcement, and military efforts within this revamped strategy through proper structuring, training, and resourcing. He warned that without comprehensive security planning and decisive implementation, South Africa risks further instability, economic decline, and international reputational damage.

Political fragmentation

Next, Terence Corrigan, Project and Publication Manager at the IRR, offered a sobering analysis of the election results. He noted the severe weakening of the previously dominant ANC, which no longer serves as the nation's ‘moral voice’. Despite this, the opposition failed to capitalise decisively, with the DA potentially reaching its voter ceiling. Corrigan expressed concern over the rise of anti-constitutional parties such as the EFF and MK, which exploit public grievances and pose a ‘populist challenge’ to democratic institutions. He predicted increased political fragmentation and ‘fractious politics’ as South Africa navigates this political landscape.

Legislative gridlock and electoral reform

Adding to the discussion of political challenges, Marius Roodt, Deputy Editor of Daily Friend, noted the worrying decline in voter turnout, and reiterated the concerns regarding South Africa’s fragmented politics. Roodt warned that this fragmentation could lead to legislative gridlocks from minority governments or unstable coalitions unable to pass laws. To address these issues, he proposed electoral reforms, including minimum vote share thresholds, extended time frames for forming governments, binding coalition agreements, and restrictions on motions of no confidence. While some view gridlock as a check against radical policies, Roodt acknowledged that an inability to pass the necessary laws could hamper investment.

Broader political implications

Concluding the presentations, Sanet Solomon, a political analyst and lecturer at UNISA, provided an overarching analysis of South Africa's political landscape post-elections. She called attention to the historic significance of three decades of democracy and fluctuating voter turnout influenced by various challenges and achievements. Solomon emphasised the critical nature of policy alignment in coalitions, particularly the ANC's collaboration with the DA. She also discussed the complexities of maintaining macroeconomic stability, the urgent need for rule of law and anti-corruption measures, and the importance of strategic, cohesive policy making in the nation's future.

The webinar underscored the multifaceted challenges facing South Africa's new coalition government, highlighting the need for strategic economic, security, and political planning to navigate the uncertain road ahead.

Click to view document Click here to watch the full dialogue.

News Archive

Africa's Black Rhino conservation strategy must change

2017-07-10

The black rhino is on the brink of extinction. The study that was
published in the Nature Scientific Reports reveals that the
species has lost an astonishing 69% of its genetic variation.
Photo: iStock

The conservation strategy of the black rhino in Africa needs to change in order to protect the species from extinction, a group of international researchers has found. The study that was published in the Nature Scientific Reports reveals that the species has lost an astonishing 69% of its genetic variation.

South African researchers took part
The researchers, which included local researchers from the National Zoological Gardens of South Africa (NZG), have highlighted the fact that this means the black rhino is on the brink of extinction. "We have found that there is a decline in genetic diversity, with 44 of 64 genetic lineages no longer existing," said Prof Antoinette Kotze, the Manager of Research and Scientific Services at the Zoo in Pretoria. She is also affiliate Professor in the Department of Genetics at the University of the Free State and has been involved in rhino research in South Africa since the early 2000s.

DNA from museums and the wild
The study compared DNA from specimens in museums around the world, which originated in the different regions of Africa, to the DNA of live wild animals. The DNA was extracted from the skin of museum specimen and from tissue and faecal samples from animals in the wild. The research used the mitochondrial genome.

"The rhino poaching ‘pandemic’
needs to be defeated, because
it puts further strain on the genetic
diversity of the black rhino.”

Ability to adapt
Dr Desire Dalton, one of the collaborators in the paper and a senior researcher at the NZG, said the loss of genetic diversity may compromise the rhinos’ ability to adapt to climate change. The study further underlined that two distinct populations now exists on either side of the Zambezi River. Dr Dalton said these definite populations need to be managed separately in order to conserve their genetic diversity. The study found that although the data suggests that the future is bleak for the black rhinoceros, the researchers did identify populations of priority for conservation, which might offer a better chance of preventing the species from total extinction. However, it stressed that the rhino poaching ‘pandemic’ needs to be defeated, because it puts further strain on the genetic diversity of the black rhino.

Extinct in many African countries
The research report further said that black rhino had been hunted and poached to extinction in many parts of Africa, such as Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, Sudan, and Ethiopia. These rhino are now only found in five African countries. They are Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Namibia, and South Africa, where the majority of the animals can be found.

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