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The UFS Centre for Gender and Africa Studies, in conjunction with the South African Institute of Race Relations (IRR), recently hosted the fifth instalment of the Africa Dialogue Series. The webinar series – established by Prof Hussein Solomon – has rapidly grown in stature. The latest discussion on the SA Election Aftermath: Economic, Security and Political Considerations drew high-profile international attendance that included several ambassadors, military attachés, and representatives of security communities.

“Part of the success of the Africa Dialogue Series,” Prof Solomon says, “is that we include a variety of speakers in each discussion. This ensures that the conversation remains relevant.” 

Economic challenges amid coalition governments

Prof Philippe Burger, Dean of the UFS Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, opened the discussion by highlighting the complexities of coalition governments in South Africa – especially given the country’s lack of experience with such political arrangements. Prof Burger further pointed out the difficulty of managing coalitions amid economic stagnation, high unemployment, poverty, and mounting debt. At the time, Prof Burger forecast that a coalition with the Democratic Alliance (DA) might push for pro-market reforms, but that such an agreement could still suffer from instability due to ideological differences. Prof Burger predicted a ‘rocky five years’ ahead for any coalition government.

A shift in security strategy

Transitioning to security matters, Eeben Barlow, Chairman and CEO of Executive Outcomes, stressed the paramount importance of a robust national security strategy for the new government's stability and South Africa's interests. He advocated for a comprehensive reassessment of the current strategy, urging a shift from reactive policies to a proactive, pre-emptive approach. Barlow underscored the need to align intelligence, law enforcement, and military efforts within this revamped strategy through proper structuring, training, and resourcing. He warned that without comprehensive security planning and decisive implementation, South Africa risks further instability, economic decline, and international reputational damage.

Political fragmentation

Next, Terence Corrigan, Project and Publication Manager at the IRR, offered a sobering analysis of the election results. He noted the severe weakening of the previously dominant ANC, which no longer serves as the nation's ‘moral voice’. Despite this, the opposition failed to capitalise decisively, with the DA potentially reaching its voter ceiling. Corrigan expressed concern over the rise of anti-constitutional parties such as the EFF and MK, which exploit public grievances and pose a ‘populist challenge’ to democratic institutions. He predicted increased political fragmentation and ‘fractious politics’ as South Africa navigates this political landscape.

Legislative gridlock and electoral reform

Adding to the discussion of political challenges, Marius Roodt, Deputy Editor of Daily Friend, noted the worrying decline in voter turnout, and reiterated the concerns regarding South Africa’s fragmented politics. Roodt warned that this fragmentation could lead to legislative gridlocks from minority governments or unstable coalitions unable to pass laws. To address these issues, he proposed electoral reforms, including minimum vote share thresholds, extended time frames for forming governments, binding coalition agreements, and restrictions on motions of no confidence. While some view gridlock as a check against radical policies, Roodt acknowledged that an inability to pass the necessary laws could hamper investment.

Broader political implications

Concluding the presentations, Sanet Solomon, a political analyst and lecturer at UNISA, provided an overarching analysis of South Africa's political landscape post-elections. She called attention to the historic significance of three decades of democracy and fluctuating voter turnout influenced by various challenges and achievements. Solomon emphasised the critical nature of policy alignment in coalitions, particularly the ANC's collaboration with the DA. She also discussed the complexities of maintaining macroeconomic stability, the urgent need for rule of law and anti-corruption measures, and the importance of strategic, cohesive policy making in the nation's future.

The webinar underscored the multifaceted challenges facing South Africa's new coalition government, highlighting the need for strategic economic, security, and political planning to navigate the uncertain road ahead.

Click to view documentClick here to watch the full dialogue.

News Archive

Media: Sunday Times
2006-05-20

Sunday Times, 4 June 2006

True leadership may mean admitting disunity
 

In this edited extract from the inaugural King Moshoeshoe Memorial Lecture at the University of the Free State, Professor Njabulo S Ndebele explores the leadership challenges facing South Africa

RECENT events have created a sense that we are undergoing a serious crisis of leadership in our new democracy. An increasing number of highly intelligent, sensitive and committed South Africans, across class, racial and cultural spectrums, confess to feeling uncertain and vulnerable as never before since 1994.

When indomitable optimists confess to having a sense of things unhinging, the misery of anxiety spreads. We have the sense that events are spiralling out of control and that no one among the leadership of the country seems to have a definitive handle on things.

There can be nothing more debilitating than a generalised and undefined sense of anxiety in the body politic. It breeds conspiracies and fear.

There is an impression that a very complex society has developed, in the last few years, a rather simple, centralised governance mechanism in the hope that delivery can be better and more quickly driven. The complexity of governance then gets located within a single structure of authority rather than in the devolved structures envisaged in the Constitution, which should interact with one another continuously, and in response to their specific settings, to achieve defined goals. Collapse in a single structure of authority, because there is no robust backup, can be catastrophic.

The autonomy of devolved structures presents itself as an impediment only when visionary cohesion collapses. Where such cohesion is strong, the impediment is only illusory, particularly when it encourages healthy competition, for example, among the provinces, or where a province develops a character that is not necessarily autonomous politically but rather distinctive and a special source of regional pride. Such competition brings vibrancy to the country. It does not necessarily challenge the centre.

Devolved autonomy is vital in the interests of sustainable governance. The failure of various structures to actualise their constitutionally defined roles should not be attributed to the failure of the prescribed governance mechanism. It is too early to say that what we have has not worked. The only viable corrective will be in our ability to be robust in identifying the problems and dealing with them concertedly.

We have never had social cohesion in South Africa — certainly not since the Natives’ Land Act of 1913. What we definitely have had over the decades is a mobilising vision. Could it be that the mobilising vision, mistaken for social cohesion, is cracking under the weight of the reality and extent of social reconstruction, and that the legitimate framework for debating these problems is collapsing? If that is so, are we witnessing a cumulative failure of leadership?

I am making a descriptive rather than an evaluative inquiry. I do not believe that there is any single entity to be blamed. It is simply that we may be a country in search of another line of approach. What will it be?

I would like to suggest two avenues of approach — an inclusive model and a counter-intuitive model of leadership.

In an inclusive approach, leadership is exercised not only by those who have been put in some position of power to steer an organisation or institution. Leadership is what all of us do when we express, sincerely, our deepest feelings and thoughts; when we do our work, whatever it is, with passion and integrity.

Counter-intuitive leadership lies in the ability of leaders to read a problematic situation, assess probable outcomes and then recognise that those outcomes will only compound the problem. Genuine leadership, in this sense, requires going against probability in seeking unexpected outcomes. That’s what happened when we avoided a civil war and ended up with an “unexpected” democracy.

Right now, we may very well hear desperate calls for unity, when the counter-intuitive imperative would be to acknowledge disunity. A declaration of unity where it manifestly does not appear to exist will fail to reassure.

Many within the “broad alliance” might have the view that the mobilising vision of old may have transformed into a strategy of executive steering with a disposition towards an expectation of compliance. No matter how compelling the reasons for that tendency, it may be seen as part of a cumulative process in which popular notions of democratic governance are apparently undermined and devalued; and where public uncertainty in the midst of seeming crisis induces fear which could freeze public thinking at a time when more voices ought to be heard.

Could it be that part of the problem is that we are unable to deal with the notion of opposition? We are horrified that any of us could be seen to have become “the opposition”. The word has been demonised. In reality, it is time we began to anticipate the arrival of a moment when there is no longer a single, overwhelmingly dominant political force as is currently the case. Such is the course of history. The measure of the maturity of the current political environment will be in how it can create conditions that anticipate that moment rather than seek to prevent it. We see here once more the essential creativity of the counter-intuitive imperative.

This is the formidable challenge of a popular post-apartheid political movement. Can it conceptually anticipate a future when it is no longer overwhelmingly in control, in the form in which it is currently, and resist, counter-intuitively, the temptation to prevent such an eventuality? Successfully resisting such an option would enable its current vision and its ultimate legacy to our country to manifest in different articulations, which then contend for social influence. In this way, the vision never really dies; it simply evolves into higher, more complex forms of itself. Consider the metaphor of flying ants replicating the ant community by establishing new ones.

We may certainly experience the meaning of comradeship differently, where we will now have “comrades on the other side”.

Any political movement that imagines itself as a perpetual entity should look at the compelling evidence of history. Few movements have survived those defining moments when they should have been more elastic, and that because they were not, did not live to see the next day.

I believe we may have reached a moment not fundamentally different from the sobering, yet uplifting and vision-making, nation-building realities that led to Kempton Park in the early ’90s. The difference between then and now is that the black majority is not facing white compatriots across the negotiating table. Rather, it is facing itself: perhaps really for the first time since 1994. Could we apply to ourselves the same degree of inventiveness and rigorous negotiation we displayed leading up to the adoption or our Constitution?

This is not a time for repeating old platitudes. It is the time, once more, for vision.

In the total scheme of things, the outcome could be as disastrous as it could be formative and uplifting, setting in place the conditions for a true renaissance that could be sustained for generations to come.

Ndebele is Vice-Chancellor of the University of Cape Town and author of the novel The Cry of Winnie Mandela

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