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From fragmentation to coalition: The SA election aftermath

27 June 2024 | Story Michelle Nöthling | Photo iStock

The UFS Centre for Gender and Africa Studies, in conjunction with the South African Institute of Race Relations (IRR), recently hosted the fifth instalment of the Africa Dialogue Series. The webinar series – established by Prof Hussein Solomon – has rapidly grown in stature. The latest discussion on the SA Election Aftermath: Economic, Security and Political Considerations drew high-profile international attendance that included several ambassadors, military attachés, and representatives of security communities.

“Part of the success of the Africa Dialogue Series,” Prof Solomon says, “is that we include a variety of speakers in each discussion. This ensures that the conversation remains relevant.”

Economic challenges amid coalition governments

Prof Philippe Burger, Dean of the UFS Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, opened the discussion by highlighting the complexities of coalition governments in South Africa – especially given the country’s lack of experience with such political arrangements. Prof Burger further pointed out the difficulty of managing coalitions amid economic stagnation, high unemployment, poverty, and mounting debt. At the time, Prof Burger forecast that a coalition with the Democratic Alliance (DA) might push for pro-market reforms, but that such an agreement could still suffer from instability due to ideological differences. Prof Burger predicted a ‘rocky five years’ ahead for any coalition government.

A shift in security strategy

Transitioning to security matters, Eeben Barlow, Chairman and CEO of Executive Outcomes, stressed the paramount importance of a robust national security strategy for the new government's stability and South Africa's interests. He advocated for a comprehensive reassessment of the current strategy, urging a shift from reactive policies to a proactive, pre-emptive approach. Barlow underscored the need to align intelligence, law enforcement, and military efforts within this revamped strategy through proper structuring, training, and resourcing. He warned that without comprehensive security planning and decisive implementation, South Africa risks further instability, economic decline, and international reputational damage.

Political fragmentation

Next, Terence Corrigan, Project and Publication Manager at the IRR, offered a sobering analysis of the election results. He noted the severe weakening of the previously dominant ANC, which no longer serves as the nation's ‘moral voice’. Despite this, the opposition failed to capitalise decisively, with the DA potentially reaching its voter ceiling. Corrigan expressed concern over the rise of anti-constitutional parties such as the EFF and MK, which exploit public grievances and pose a ‘populist challenge’ to democratic institutions. He predicted increased political fragmentation and ‘fractious politics’ as South Africa navigates this political landscape.

Legislative gridlock and electoral reform

Adding to the discussion of political challenges, Marius Roodt, Deputy Editor of Daily Friend, noted the worrying decline in voter turnout, and reiterated the concerns regarding South Africa’s fragmented politics. Roodt warned that this fragmentation could lead to legislative gridlocks from minority governments or unstable coalitions unable to pass laws. To address these issues, he proposed electoral reforms, including minimum vote share thresholds, extended time frames for forming governments, binding coalition agreements, and restrictions on motions of no confidence. While some view gridlock as a check against radical policies, Roodt acknowledged that an inability to pass the necessary laws could hamper investment.

Broader political implications

Concluding the presentations, Sanet Solomon, a political analyst and lecturer at UNISA, provided an overarching analysis of South Africa's political landscape post-elections. She called attention to the historic significance of three decades of democracy and fluctuating voter turnout influenced by various challenges and achievements. Solomon emphasised the critical nature of policy alignment in coalitions, particularly the ANC's collaboration with the DA. She also discussed the complexities of maintaining macroeconomic stability, the urgent need for rule of law and anti-corruption measures, and the importance of strategic, cohesive policy making in the nation's future.

The webinar underscored the multifaceted challenges facing South Africa's new coalition government, highlighting the need for strategic economic, security, and political planning to navigate the uncertain road ahead.

Click to view document Click here to watch the full dialogue.

News Archive

UFS Centenary 2004 / 2005 October (centenary) fest Activities

2004-10-08

Friday, 08 October 2004
17:00 – 24:00
Callie Human Centre, UFS
Macufe Rock Concert
With: Rooibaardt, Karen Zoid, The Narrow, F****polisiekar, Stuurbaard Bakkebaard (from the Netherlands), DJ Bob, Ready D, Neva Me.
Cost : R50-00
Bookings : Pacofs (051-447 7772)

Sunday, 10 October 2004
16:00 – 18:00
Callie Human Centre, UFS
Macufe Three Tenors Concert
With: Phillip Kotze, Chris Coetzer and Du Preez Stolz, as well as Angela Kerrison. Free State Symphony Orchestra conducted by Chris Dowdeswell.
Cost :R60-00 (adults), R40-00 (children, scholars, students and pensioners)
Bookings : Pacofs (051-447 7772)

Tuesday, 12 October 2004
11:00 – 15:00
Centenary Complex, UFS
Inauguration of Centenary Complex
Open day with a variety of musical recitals in different rooms
Cost : Free
Enquiries : Elize Rall (051-401 3382)

15:00 – 17:00
Parking area next to the Centenary Complex, UFS
Kovsie Mosaic Day
Collage of the Century, Dance to the beat, Cultural Cartoon,
Who’s line is it anyway?
Cost : Free
Enquiries : Louis Botha (051-401 2819) or
AC Geldenhuys (084 585 3338)

Wednesday, 13 October 2004
19:00
Centenary Complex, UFS
Première of documentary film : The Life and Legacy of King Moshoeshoe
Note : By invitation only
Enquiries : Elize Rall (051-401 3382)

Thursday, 14 October 2004
18:45 – 21:00
Red Square (in front of Main Building), UFS
Centenary Honorary Doctorate Degree Graduation Ceremony
Conferred on: Me. Antjie Krog, Prof. Jakes Gerwel, Mr. Karel Schoeman, Dr. Frederick van Zyl Slabbert, Prof. Saleem Badat, Dr. Khotso Mokhele, Prof. Robert Bringle, Prof. Leo Quayle, Prof. Jack de Wet, Prof. Kerneels Nel (posthumously), Prof. Boelie Wessels and Prof. Jaap Steyn .
Cost : Free. Please RSVP if you would like to attend.
Enquiries : Elize Rall (051-401 3382)

Friday, 15 October 2004
18:30
Centenary Complex, UFS
Alumni Dinner and Centenary Award Ceremony
Approximately 140 centenary medals will be awarded in acknowledgement of exceptional contributions to the development of the University. The award ceremony is followed by the Alumni dinner in the Callie Human Centre.
Cost : R100-00/person
Enquiries : Elize Rall (051-401 3382)

15:00 (to 12:00, Saturday, 16 October 2004),
UFS campus
Reunion : Momentum Adventure and Expedition Association
Including : Setting up of the Kovsie Momentum base camp, champagne breakfast and abseiling.
Cost : R50-00/person for breakfast
Enquiries : Gerrit van der Merwe (072 4317 153) or
Niel Fraser (082 772 5642)
Website : www.uovs.ac.za/associations/momentum_hrcc.

19:00 (to 11:00 Sunday, 17 October 2004)
Reunion : Cantare Revue Group
Including : Formal dinner, budget show, bring and braai, church service.
Cost : R100-00/person for the dinner
Enquiries : Louis Botha (051-401 2819)

19:00 (to 24:00 Saturday, 16 October 2004
Reunion : House NJ van der Merwe
Including : Senior Student’s Association and concerts
Cost : R5-00/person
Enquiries : Tutu Ntlathi (051-401 4122 / 072 865 2227)

Saturday, 16 October 2004
09:00 – 10:00
Committee Room 120, Faculty of Theology
Founding of Theology Alumni Association
Enquiries: Henna Nel (051-401 2669)

10:00 – 12:00
Parking area, CR Swart Building, UFS
Alumni Campus Tour
Including : Visits to the new physical developments on campus
Cost : Free
Enquiries : Jeanette Jansen (051-401 3594)

10:00 – 12:00
Sonnedou gazellie (next to NJ van der Merwe Residence), UFS
Reunion : Ladies’ Tea
Visit our new gazellie and find out what Sonnedou is up to these days.
Cost : R25-00/person
Enquiries : Anne-Marie Delport (072 109 0507)

12:00 – 16:00
JBM Hertzog Residence (garden in front of Senior Student’s Association), UFS
Reunion : Braai
Cost : Approximately R20-00/person
Enquiries : Hattingh Bornman (084 240 5226)

12:00 Vergeet-my-nie Residence, UFS
Reunion : Braai
Bring and braai. We supply the facilities. Bring old photographs and stories. Enjoy Aunt Juls’ last visit.
Cost : Free
Enquiries : Mari Jordaan (051-444 2832/072 392 4444)

12:00 HF Verwoerd Residence Senior Student’s Association, UFS
Reunion : Spit roast
Cost : R60-00/person
Enquiries : Jan-Chris Landman (051-401 3613 / 082 664 6062)

18:30 Floreat Hall, Bloemfontein Civic Centre (Braam Fisher Building)
Irawa 60 Reunion
For all former editors, former and current main editorial staff and coworkers
Cost : R100-00/person
Enquiries : Sanri van Wyk (072 333 1011)
Elzette Boucher (072 180 6265)

19:00 – 24:00 Red Square (in front of Main Building), UFS
Informal Alumni Reunion
Spit roast and stories in a marquee
Cost : R60-00/person
Enquiries : Elize Rall (051-401 3382)

Sunday, 17 October 2004
10:00 – 11:00
Kovsie Church
Church Service

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