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Africa Dialogue Series discussion at UFS offers insights into SA’s 2024 elections

18 March 2024 | Story VALENTINO NDABA | Photo SUPPLIED

RIGHT TO VOTE 2024 — Expert speakers dissecting South Africa's political landscape at the University of the Free State’s recent panel discussion on the 2024 elections.

The University of the Free State's (UFS) Centre for Gender and Africa Studies (CGAS), in collaboration with the South African Institute of Race Relations (IRR), recently organised an Africa Dialogue Series panel discussion titled ‘Elections 2024: South Africa’s Changing Political Landscape’. The event, held on 6 March 2024, brought together distinguished speakers and experts to dissect the evolving dynamics of South Africa's political landscape as the nation gears up for the 2024 elections.

The panel featured prominent figures including former Tony Leon, Makone Maja, Michael Atkins, and Terence Corrigan, who provided valuable insights into various aspects of the upcoming elections. Prof Heidi Hudson, Professor at the CGAS, expertly moderated the session, ensuring a robust exchange of ideas and perspectives.

Importance of informed dialogue

Prof Hussein Solomon, Senior Professor at CGAS and planner of the dialogue session, reflected on the success of the event in achieving its objectives. He emphasised the importance of informed dialogue in navigating the complex issues surrounding the 2024 elections. "The idea is to inform people of the issues at stake, but also to focus on key issue areas from an academic perspective," Prof Solomon said.

He expressed concerns about voter registration and the need for heightened awareness among youth, underscoring the significance of addressing societal challenges to ensure peaceful elections.

Unprecedented uncertainty in election outcome

Leon, former leader of the Democratic Alliance and a seasoned political analyst, opened the discussion by highlighting the unprecedented uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the 2024 elections. Contrary to previous elections where the victory of the African National Congress (ANC) was almost a given, Leon pointed out that the current political landscape presents a different scenario.

"In all the previous elections we were able to predict an ANC win. This time round it is not that simple," he said. "The ANC will not clear 50 and that’s going to be a big game-changer."

Leon underscored the fragmentation within the ANC itself, noting the emergence of multiple versions of the party with no clear ideological distinctions. He also raised concerns about voter turnout and the implications of a potential government controlled by parties representing a mere fraction of the voting population.

Declining youth political participation

Maja, Campaign Manager at the IRR, shed light on the decline in political participation by youth in South Africa. Drawing from statistical data, she emphasised the need to address the disillusionment among young voters, particularly regarding corruption and unemployment.

"I've been particularly curious about youth for their behaviour," she said. "A lot of the youth... did not align with political parties in South Africa, much more likely in the youth than in the older age categories."

Maja highlighted socioeconomic factors that are contributing to youth disengagement from the political process, and stressed the importance of political engagement in shaping democratic outcomes.

Upholding electoral integrity

Atkins, a seasoned political analyst and independent observer in South African elections, focused on the imperative of upholding electoral integrity. He criticised the flaws in the Electoral Amendment Bill and highlighted concerns about the accuracy of election results.

"We have seen a complete disrespect or even disdain for meaningful electoral reform through these last three years," he said. "Spurious claims of rigging must be objectively and speedily met and countered."

He called for increased transparency and accountability within the electoral process to ensure the legitimacy of election outcomes.

Political dynamics and future scenarios

Corrigan, a Project Manager at the IRR, delved into the changing political dynamics of South Africa and contemplated potential future scenarios. He questioned the sustainability of the dominant party paradigm and examined the possibility of coalition politics in the aftermath of the elections. Corrigan highlighted the emergence of new political players and the implications of coalition politics for stability and governance in South Africa.

The Africa Dialogue Series panel discussion provided a platform for robust debate and critical analysis of South Africa's political landscape, offering valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in the 2024 elections and beyond.

News Archive

Census 2011 overshadowed by vuvuzela announcements

2012-11-20

Mike Schüssler, economist
Photo: Hannes Pieterse
15 November 2012

Complete Lecture (MP3)

Census 2011 contains good statistics but these are overshadowed by vuvuzela announcements and a selective approach, economist Mike Schüssler said at a presentation at the UFS.

“Why highlight one inequality and not another success factor? Is Government that negative about itself?” Mr Schüssler, owner of Economist.co.za, asked.

“Why is all the good news such as home ownership, water, lights, cars, cellphones, etc. put on the back burner? For example, we have more rooms than people in our primary residence. Data shows that a third of Africans have a second home. Why are some statistics that are racially based not made available, e.g. orphans? So are “bad” statistics not always presented?”

He highlighted statistics that did not get the necessary attention in the media. One such statistic is that black South Africans earn 46% of all income compared to 39% of whites. The census also showed that black South Africans fully own nearly ten times the amount of houses that whites do. Another statistic is that black South Africans are the only population group to have a younger median age. “This is against worldwide trends and in all likelihood has to do with AIDS. It is killing black South Africans more than other race groups.”

Mr Schüssler also gave insight into education. He said education does count when earnings are taken into account. “I could easily say that the average degree earns nearly five times more than a matric and the average matric earns twice the pay of a grade 11.”

He also mentioned that people lie in surveys. On the expenditure side he said, “People apparently do not admit that they gamble or drink or smoke when asked. They also do not eat out but when looking at industry and sector sales, this is exposed and the CPI is, for example, reweighted. They forget their food expenditure and brag about their cars. They seemingly spend massively on houses but little on maintenance. They spend more than they earn.”

“On income, the lie is that people forget or do not know the difference between gross and net salaries. People forget garnishee orders, loan repayments and certainly do not have an idea what companies pay on their behalf to pensions and medical aid. People want to keep getting social grants so they are more motivated to forget income. People are scared of taxes too so they lower income when asked. They spend more than they earn in many categories.”

On household assets Mr Schüssler said South Africans are asset rich but income poor. Over 8,3 million black African families stay in brick or concrete houses out of a total of 11,2 million total. About 4,9 million black families own their own home fully while only 502 000 whites do (fully paid off or nearly ten times more black families own their own homes fully). Just over 880 000 black South Africans are paying off their homes while 518 000 white families are.

Other interesting statistics are that 13,2 million people work, 22,5 million have bank accounts, 19,6 million have credit records. Thirty percent of households have cars, 90% of households have cellphones and 80% of households have TVs.

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