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29 November 2024 | Story Prof Mpumelelo Ncube | Photo Supplied
Prof Mpumelelo Ncube
Prof Mpumelelo Ncube is an Associate Professor of Social Work at the University of the Free State.

Opinion article by Prof Mpumelelo Ncube, Head of the Department of Social Work, University of the Free State


As we approach the end of another year, many people take this time to reflect on the successes they have achieved, as well as to appreciate their resilience in overcoming life's challenges. For some, this season of reflection serves as an opportunity to reward themselves for their accomplishments. However, for many others, the festivities become a coping mechanism, masking deeper pain and unresolved trauma.

This year has been marked by several successes, including the simple fact that we are still alive, despite the staggering number of lives lost in the country, but more so, in conflict zones. Countries like Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Mozambique, Palestine, and Ukraine have endured severe violence, with countless innocent lives taken. In these instances, the human cost continues to mount, making survival a powerful testament to resilience and divine grace in the face of such overwhelming adversity. Life itself is an accomplishment, but for countless individuals, it also carries untold stories of sorrow, stories not just from this year but from previous years as well. Families continue to grieve the loss of loved ones to the COVID-19 pandemic, and many have lost their livelihoods due to the economic downturn that followed. The situation is further exacerbated by South Africa’s unemployment rate, which exceeds 40% (expanded definition), making it increasingly difficult for many individuals to secure new sources of income.

The violence

In addition, South Africa continues to grapple with violence. Families mourn the loss of loved ones to murder — a pain that never truly heals, though families learn to live with it. The country’s murder rate remains alarmingly high, with slight fluctuations in the past five years looking only at the months of April to June across the years. In 2020, COVID-19 restrictions temporarily reduced murders to 3 466, but once the lockdown lifted, the rate surged to 5 760 in 2021, continuing to rise to 6 424 in 2022. Though slightly declining in 2023 and 2024, the numbers are still far too high. This reflects an ongoing crisis that demands stronger interventions, law enforcement, and efforts to address the socio-economic disparities that fuel crime.

Further compounding the year’s challenges, 2024 saw tragic events such as children dying from poisoned food, mass killings in the Eastern Cape, a rise in extortion, and an alarming increase in teenage pregnancies, especially in underprivileged communities. As we close the year, these issues do not vanish. In fact, they may intensify, often hidden beneath the veneer of holiday festivities.

The impact of alcohol

For many, these festivities are synonymous with alcohol consumption. Despite the economic struggles faced by many, a budget for alcohol remains a priority. This may seem counterintuitive, but it highlights the reality of people using alcohol to escape their suffering. Alcohol, like many other substances, becomes a coping mechanism for the trauma that so many endure.

In its 54th conference, the ANC rightly observed a universal phenomenon of alcohol abuse where socially and economically unequal societies tend to have higher levels of substance abuse, particularly alcohol and drugs. The §National Drug Master Plan 2019/24 identifies alcohol as the primary substance abused across racial and class lines in South Africa, largely due to its easy accessibility, affordability, and cultural associations. South Africa ranks among the high alcohol-consuming countries, with an average of 9.3 litres per capita annually, far surpassing the global average of 6.4 litres.

The consumption of alcohol is particularly concerning among young people, who often gain access to alcohol earlier than legally permitted, especially during the festive season. When young people normalise alcohol consumption, it often leads to lifelong addiction, impaired development, and an inability to fully participate in society. Tragically, in some cases, it results in fatal outcomes.

For the broader population, alcohol is often a catalyst for violence, both in public spaces and within homes. It exacerbates gender-based violence (GBV), fuels broken families, perpetuates cycles of poverty and substance abuse, and undermines social cohesion. These issues have plagued South Africa for years, with little success in addressing them.

The festive season is also associated with a rise in road accidents and fatalities, often linked to alcohol consumption. While this is only the tip of the iceberg, it reflects the broader societal damage caused by alcohol. Yet, alcohol continues to be marketed as a symbol of success, sophistication, and enjoyment. While alcohol-facilitated festivities and social gatherings in general may offer fleeting escapism, they ultimately fail to address the profound psychological and emotional wounds that individuals carry. Beneath the veneer of revelry and glamour, these events often leave participants with unhealed scars, merely postponing the inevitable pursuit of the next escapism opportunity. In truth, the industry exploits vulnerable individuals for profit, often masking the harm it inflicts on communities.

Despite the alcohol industry's substantial contribution to South Africa's GDP, a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis reveals that the industry's socioeconomic costs, encompassing both direct and indirect expenditures, as well as intangible externalities, significantly exceed its economic benefits. In the past, studies have shown that alcohol-related harm costs between 10% and 12% of the country’s GDP, while the benefits, including taxes and employment, account for a less than 10%. This disparity calls for a re-evaluation of the country’s relationship with alcohol. It’s a substance that not only fuels violence and the resulting trauma but also undermines the nation’s aspirations for a more prosperous and equitable future for all. We must question whether alcohol is truly indispensable. Does its social, cultural, or economic significance justify the considerable harm it causes to human life?

16 Days campaign

This truly is the time for the country to reconsider its approach to alcohol regulation. There have been ongoing debates about tightening restrictions on alcohol advertising, with proponents arguing that these measures could mitigate the damage caused by the industry. Some have also called for raising the legal drinking age, suggesting that delaying access to alcohol could benefit both individuals and the economy. Additionally, increasing excise duties could make alcohol less accessible, reducing its harmful impact on society. These steps require leaders who prioritise the lives of the people they serve over the profit margins of corporations. Ultimately, this serves as a clarion call to collective action, urging all stakeholders in society including families, faith-based organisations, community groups, educational institutions, and beyond, to assume a shared responsibility for reversing this destructive trend. By doing so, we can break the cycle of harm, mitigate the pervasive psychological and emotional trauma that permeates our society. Afterall, Life should be treated as sacred and worthy of protection and improvement at every opportunity.

In light of all these issues, we are also reminded of the 16 Days of Activism for No Violence against Women and Children Campaign, a global campaign aimed at raising awareness about violence against women and girls. Let this not be a mere rhetorical exercise, but a call to action, one that demands meaningful decisions and interventions to protect vulnerable individuals and build a society free of violence and harm.

Mpumelelo Ncube is an Associate Professor of Social Work at the University of the Free State. He writes in his personal capacity.

News Archive

Fight against Ebola virus requires more research
2014-10-22

 

Dr Abdon Atangana
Photo: Ifa Tshishonge
Dr Abdon Atangana, a postdoctoral researcher in the Institute for Groundwater Studies at the University of the Free State (UFS), wrote an article related to the Ebola virus: Modelling the Ebola haemorrhagic fever with the beta-derivative: Deathly infection disease in West African countries.

“The filoviruses belong to a virus family named filoviridae. This virus can cause unembellished haemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman monkeys. In literature, only two members of this virus family have been mentioned, namely the Marburg virus and the Ebola virus. However, so far only five species of the Ebola virus have been identified, including:  Ivory Coast, Sudan, Zaire, Reston and Bundibugyo.

“Among these families, the Ebola virus is the only member of the Zaire Ebola virus species and also the most dangerous, being responsible for the largest number of outbreaks.

“Ebola is an unusual, but fatal virus that causes bleeding inside and outside the body. As the virus spreads through the body, it damages the immune system and organs. Ultimately, it causes the blood-clotting levels in cells to drop. This leads to severe, uncontrollable bleeding.

Since all physical problems can be modelled via mathematical equation, Dr Atangana aimed in his research (the paper was published in BioMed Research International with impact factor 2.701) to analyse the spread of this deadly disease using mathematical equations. We shall propose a model underpinning the spread of this disease in a given Sub-Saharan African country,” he said.

The mathematical equations are used to predict the future behaviour of the disease, especially the spread of the disease among the targeted population. These mathematical equations are called differential equation and are only using the concept of rate of change over time.

However, there is several definitions for derivative, and the choice of the derivative used for such a model is very important, because the more accurate the model, the better results will be obtained.  The classical derivative describes the change of rate, but it is an approximation of the real velocity of the object under study. The beta derivative is the modification of the classical derivative that takes into account the time scale and also has a new parameter that can be considered as the fractional order.  

“I have used the beta derivative to model the spread of the fatal disease called Ebola, which has killed many people in the West African countries, including Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia, since December 2013,” he said.

The constructed mathematical equations were called Atangana’s Beta Ebola System of Equations (ABESE). “We did the investigation of the stable endemic points and presented the Eigen-Values using the Jacobian method. The homotopy decomposition method was used to solve the resulted system of equations. The convergence of the method was presented and some numerical simulations were done for different values of beta.

“The simulations showed that our model is more realistic for all betas less than 0.5.  The model revealed that, if there were no recovery precaution for a given population in a West African country, the entire population of that country would all die in a very short period of time, even if the total number of the infected population is very small.  In simple terms, the prediction revealed a fast spread of the virus among the targeted population. These results can be used to educate and inform people about the rapid spread of the deadly disease,” he said.

The spread of Ebola among people only occurs through direct contact with the blood or body fluids of a person after symptoms have developed. Body fluid that may contain the Ebola virus includes saliva, mucus, vomit, faeces, sweat, tears, breast milk, urine and semen. Entry points include the nose, mouth, eyes, open wounds, cuts and abrasions. Note should be taken that contact with objects contaminated by the virus, particularly needles and syringes, may also transmit the infection.

“Based on the predictions in this paper, we are calling on more research regarding this disease; in particular, we are calling on researchers to pay attention to finding an efficient cure or more effective prevention, to reduce the risk of contamination,” Dr Atangana said.


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