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29 November 2024 | Story Prof Mpumelelo Ncube | Photo Supplied
Prof Mpumelelo Ncube
Prof Mpumelelo Ncube is an Associate Professor of Social Work at the University of the Free State.

Opinion article by Prof Mpumelelo Ncube, Head of the Department of Social Work, University of the Free State


As we approach the end of another year, many people take this time to reflect on the successes they have achieved, as well as to appreciate their resilience in overcoming life's challenges. For some, this season of reflection serves as an opportunity to reward themselves for their accomplishments. However, for many others, the festivities become a coping mechanism, masking deeper pain and unresolved trauma.

This year has been marked by several successes, including the simple fact that we are still alive, despite the staggering number of lives lost in the country, but more so, in conflict zones. Countries like Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Mozambique, Palestine, and Ukraine have endured severe violence, with countless innocent lives taken. In these instances, the human cost continues to mount, making survival a powerful testament to resilience and divine grace in the face of such overwhelming adversity. Life itself is an accomplishment, but for countless individuals, it also carries untold stories of sorrow, stories not just from this year but from previous years as well. Families continue to grieve the loss of loved ones to the COVID-19 pandemic, and many have lost their livelihoods due to the economic downturn that followed. The situation is further exacerbated by South Africa’s unemployment rate, which exceeds 40% (expanded definition), making it increasingly difficult for many individuals to secure new sources of income.

The violence

In addition, South Africa continues to grapple with violence. Families mourn the loss of loved ones to murder — a pain that never truly heals, though families learn to live with it. The country’s murder rate remains alarmingly high, with slight fluctuations in the past five years looking only at the months of April to June across the years. In 2020, COVID-19 restrictions temporarily reduced murders to 3 466, but once the lockdown lifted, the rate surged to 5 760 in 2021, continuing to rise to 6 424 in 2022. Though slightly declining in 2023 and 2024, the numbers are still far too high. This reflects an ongoing crisis that demands stronger interventions, law enforcement, and efforts to address the socio-economic disparities that fuel crime.

Further compounding the year’s challenges, 2024 saw tragic events such as children dying from poisoned food, mass killings in the Eastern Cape, a rise in extortion, and an alarming increase in teenage pregnancies, especially in underprivileged communities. As we close the year, these issues do not vanish. In fact, they may intensify, often hidden beneath the veneer of holiday festivities.

The impact of alcohol

For many, these festivities are synonymous with alcohol consumption. Despite the economic struggles faced by many, a budget for alcohol remains a priority. This may seem counterintuitive, but it highlights the reality of people using alcohol to escape their suffering. Alcohol, like many other substances, becomes a coping mechanism for the trauma that so many endure.

In its 54th conference, the ANC rightly observed a universal phenomenon of alcohol abuse where socially and economically unequal societies tend to have higher levels of substance abuse, particularly alcohol and drugs. The §National Drug Master Plan 2019/24 identifies alcohol as the primary substance abused across racial and class lines in South Africa, largely due to its easy accessibility, affordability, and cultural associations. South Africa ranks among the high alcohol-consuming countries, with an average of 9.3 litres per capita annually, far surpassing the global average of 6.4 litres.

The consumption of alcohol is particularly concerning among young people, who often gain access to alcohol earlier than legally permitted, especially during the festive season. When young people normalise alcohol consumption, it often leads to lifelong addiction, impaired development, and an inability to fully participate in society. Tragically, in some cases, it results in fatal outcomes.

For the broader population, alcohol is often a catalyst for violence, both in public spaces and within homes. It exacerbates gender-based violence (GBV), fuels broken families, perpetuates cycles of poverty and substance abuse, and undermines social cohesion. These issues have plagued South Africa for years, with little success in addressing them.

The festive season is also associated with a rise in road accidents and fatalities, often linked to alcohol consumption. While this is only the tip of the iceberg, it reflects the broader societal damage caused by alcohol. Yet, alcohol continues to be marketed as a symbol of success, sophistication, and enjoyment. While alcohol-facilitated festivities and social gatherings in general may offer fleeting escapism, they ultimately fail to address the profound psychological and emotional wounds that individuals carry. Beneath the veneer of revelry and glamour, these events often leave participants with unhealed scars, merely postponing the inevitable pursuit of the next escapism opportunity. In truth, the industry exploits vulnerable individuals for profit, often masking the harm it inflicts on communities.

Despite the alcohol industry's substantial contribution to South Africa's GDP, a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis reveals that the industry's socioeconomic costs, encompassing both direct and indirect expenditures, as well as intangible externalities, significantly exceed its economic benefits. In the past, studies have shown that alcohol-related harm costs between 10% and 12% of the country’s GDP, while the benefits, including taxes and employment, account for a less than 10%. This disparity calls for a re-evaluation of the country’s relationship with alcohol. It’s a substance that not only fuels violence and the resulting trauma but also undermines the nation’s aspirations for a more prosperous and equitable future for all. We must question whether alcohol is truly indispensable. Does its social, cultural, or economic significance justify the considerable harm it causes to human life?

16 Days campaign

This truly is the time for the country to reconsider its approach to alcohol regulation. There have been ongoing debates about tightening restrictions on alcohol advertising, with proponents arguing that these measures could mitigate the damage caused by the industry. Some have also called for raising the legal drinking age, suggesting that delaying access to alcohol could benefit both individuals and the economy. Additionally, increasing excise duties could make alcohol less accessible, reducing its harmful impact on society. These steps require leaders who prioritise the lives of the people they serve over the profit margins of corporations. Ultimately, this serves as a clarion call to collective action, urging all stakeholders in society including families, faith-based organisations, community groups, educational institutions, and beyond, to assume a shared responsibility for reversing this destructive trend. By doing so, we can break the cycle of harm, mitigate the pervasive psychological and emotional trauma that permeates our society. Afterall, Life should be treated as sacred and worthy of protection and improvement at every opportunity.

In light of all these issues, we are also reminded of the 16 Days of Activism for No Violence against Women and Children Campaign, a global campaign aimed at raising awareness about violence against women and girls. Let this not be a mere rhetorical exercise, but a call to action, one that demands meaningful decisions and interventions to protect vulnerable individuals and build a society free of violence and harm.

Mpumelelo Ncube is an Associate Professor of Social Work at the University of the Free State. He writes in his personal capacity.

News Archive

Inaugural lecture: Prof. Phillipe Burger
2007-11-26

 

Attending the lecture were, from the left: Prof. Tienie Crous (Dean of the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences at the UFS), Prof. Phillipe Burger (Departmental Chairperson of the Department of Economics at the UFS), and Prof. Frederick Fourie (Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS).
Photo: Stephen Collet

 
A summary of an inaugural lecture presented by Prof. Phillipe Burger on the topic: “The ups and downs of the South African Economy: Rough seas or smooth sailing?”

South African business cycle shows reduction in volatility

Better monetary policy and improvements in the financial sector that place less liquidity constraints on individuals is one of the main reasons for the reduction in the volatility of the South African economy. The improvement in access to the financial sector also enables individuals to manage their debt better.

These are some of the findings in an analysis on the volatility of the South African business cycle done by Prof. Philippe Burger, Departmental Chairperson of the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Department of Economics.

Prof. Burger delivered his inaugural lecture last night (22 November 2007) on the Main Campus in Bloemfontein on the topic “The ups and downs of the South African Economy: Rough seas or smooth sailing?”

In his lecture, Prof. Burger emphasised a few key aspects of the South African business cycle and indicated how it changed during the periods 1960-1976, 1976-1994 en 1994-2006.

With the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as an indicator of the business cycle, the analysis identified the variables that showed the highest correlation with the GDP. During the periods 1976-1994 and 1994-2006, these included durable consumption, manufacturing investment, private sector investment, as well as investment in machinery and non-residential buildings. Other variables that also show a high correlation with the GDP are imports, non-durable consumption, investment in the financial services sector, investment by general government, as well as investment in residential buildings.

Prof. Burger’s analysis also shows that changes in durable consumption, investment in the manufacturing sector, investment in the private sector, as well as investment in non-residential buildings preceded changes in the GDP. If changes in a variable such as durable consumption precede changes in the GDP, it is an indication that durable consumption is one of the drivers of the business cycle. The up or down swing of durable consumption may, in other words, just as well contribute to an up or down swing in the business cycle.

A surprising finding of the analysis is the particularly strong role durable consumption has played in the business cycle since 1994. This finding is especially surprising due to the fact that durable consumption only constitutes about 12% of the total household consumption.

A further surprising finding is the particularly small role exports have been playing since 1960 as a driver of the business cycle. In South Africa it is still generally accepted that exports are one of the most important drivers of the business cycle. It is generally accepted that, should the business cycles of South Africa’s most important trade partners show an upward phase; these partners will purchase more from South Africa. This increase in exports will contribute to the South African economy moving upward. Prof. Burger’s analyses shows, however, that exports have generally never fulfil this role.

Over and above the identification of the drivers of the South African business cycle, Prof. Burger’s analysis also investigated the volatility of the business cycle.

When the periods 1976-1994 and 1994-2006 are compared, the analysis shows that the volatility of the business cycle has reduced since 1994 with more than half. The reduction in volatility can be traced to the reduction in the volatility of household consumption (especially durables and services), as well as a reduction in the volatility of investment in machinery, non-residential buildings and transport equipment. The last three coincide with the general reduction in the volatility of investment in the manufacturing sector. Investment in sectors such as electricity and transport (not to be confused with investment in transport equipment by various sectors) which are strongly dominated by the government, did not contribute to the decrease in volatility.

In his analysis, Prof. Burger supplies reasons for the reduction in volatility. One of the explanations is the reduction in the shocks affecting the economy – especially in the South African context. Another explanation is the application of an improved monetary policy by the South African Reserve Bank since the mid 1990’s. A third explanation is the better access to liquidity and credit since the mid 1990’s, which enables the better management of household finance and the absorption of financial shocks.

A further reason which contributed to the reduction in volatility in countries such as the United States of America’s business cycle is better inventory management. While the volatility of inventory in South Africa has also reduced there is, according to Prof. Burger, little proof that better inventory management contributed to the reduction in volatility of the GDP.

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