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07 April 2025 Photo Supplied
Dr Calvin Mudzingiri
Dr Calvin Mudzingiri, Assistant Dean: Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, University of the Free State, Qwaqwa Campus.

Opinion article by Dr Calvin Mudzingiri, Assistant Dean: Economic and Management Sciences, University of the Free State, Qwaqwa Campus 


The sudden hike of import tariffs by US President Donald Trump and his administration to countries across the world is set to reduce the volume of goods traded and affect citizen welfare across the globe. The Trump administration implemented a global 10% import tariff and a varying targeted reciprocal tariff to a host of countries, including South Africa. The reciprocal import tariff to be levied on South African export goods to the US is set at 30%. Historical data show that yearly trade between SA and US amounts to $23 billion and the US is SA’s the second biggest trading partner after China. The high tariff will reduce the competitiveness of South African export goods to American markets, leading to reduced demand of SA exports in US markets, low income to firms, job losses, low income to households and ultimately lower South African economic growth.

 

SA and US trade

South Africa exports platinum, locally assembled cars, raw aluminium, ferroalloys and agriculture products, among other goods, to the US. The implication of the US administration’s 30% tariff hike could result in job losses in the mining, automobile, agriculture and many other industries. More income losses to SA agricultural exports can also be experienced if the African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) expires in September 2025, if the US congressmen decide not to renew the agreement. Given the low economic growth rate in South Africa in 2024, which is estimated at 0.6%, the tariff hike by the US will exacerbate sluggish economic growth and recovery from the COVID 19 pandemic. 

Statistics also show that SA imports energy products, machinery, vehicle, industrial and other consumer goods. The goods and services SA imports from the US play a critical role in developing and sustaining local industry. SA can decide to source the goods from other markets and if this happens with all economies where tariffs were imposed, the US will be worse off. There is a possibility that economies which received a tariff hike from the US will implement a reciprocal tariff hike to the US reducing the volume of global trade. The reduced trade volumes have dire implications for job creation, income generation by firms and households, making citizens worse off.


US current trade policy

It is important to note that President Trump administration’s trade policies are premised on a trade notion synonymous to ‘mercantilism’, which was practised in Europe between the 16th to 18th centuries. Under mercantilism, an economy aims to maintain a trade surplus, the government regulate the economy, discourage imports (in the case of the US using tariff hikes) and promote growth of home industries among other initiatives. Conventional economics wisdom has proved that policies pursued by the Trump administration of protectionism are a breeding ground for trade wars. There is great potential of fellow trading partners retaliating and if that happens, global citizens will be made worse off as they will be forced to pay high prices for goods due to additional costs driven by tariff hikes. In addition, US industry relies on raw materials from other countries. If the suppliers of raw material resources retaliate, the production cost model of US firms will rise, reducing export competitiveness of US exports.

Trump’s administration is calling for firms across the world to move and produce goods in the US to avoid tariff levies. The action works against the benefits of free trade and can affect firms’ comparative advantages. The production cost structure in the US can be higher than in other countries leading to firms realising low profits if they move to the US. It is essential to note that free trade with absolutely no trade barriers will enhance the welfare of citizens at large, since goods and services will be purchased at low prices. The US government’s act of over-regulating trade can limit economic growth not only of other countries but even that of the US economy.

 

Options for the SA government

In the face of trade adversity, the SA government must not fold its hands and do nothing. It is enlightening to note that the authorities have already initiated diplomatic and trade negotiations. Negotiations can possibly focus on tariff reduction, maintaining the AGOA, and delving deep in the logic used to arrive at the 30% tariff hike. The diplomatic initiatives must encompass improving perceptions and clarity of SA policies such as the Expropriation Act which is one of the reasons cited by the US administration in ratcheting the tariff trade war.

South Africa must re-orient its trading patterns and partnerships. The aggregate world gross domestic product (GDP) is greater than the US total production for goods and services. There is need for SA to improve trade relations with other economies to broaden its trade base. The current frosty trade relationship between SA and the US presents a window to strengthen trade with the EU, Asia, BRICS plus, Africa, and any other economy willing to get into trade partnerships. SA must explore other markets where the export goods still enjoy competitiveness.

To ensure economic resilience to trade wars in the long run, SA needs to seriously invest in research and development that promote value addition of local production, enhancing local production and technology advancement that can stimulate economies of scale, which can boost competitiveness of export goods. Competitiveness can be further enhanced by improving energy production efficiency, which is a crucial input of goods and services production. Developing a powerful and skilled human capital base can lead to labour productivity efficiency, further enhancing competitiveness. SA has a dilapidated infrastructure ranging from roads, rail, buildings and industry among others. Improving the infrastructure will go a long way in improving local production, leading to creation of jobs and improved incomes for households.

Boosting local economic activity can stimulate local consumption of goods as household income improves. If the incomes of SA citizens improve, there is a potential to increase local consumption. Goods meant for export markets can end up being consumed in the domestic markets, providing a homemade solution to dwindling export goods markets. The SA government must consider developing and supporting new industries that can compete in the local and international markets. In this way, the trade challenges posed by unfriendly US administration trade policies can present opportunities to the SA economy in the long run.

News Archive

Centenary medals awarded
2004-10-15

Speech, Rector and Vice-Chancellor: Prof. Frederick Fourie

Op 28 Januarie 2004 het ons die honderdste herdenking van die geboorte van hier­die hoër onderwys instelling gevier met ‘n groot partytjie voor die Hoofgebou. Dit was ‘n wonderlike en vreugdevolle aand.

Die historiese prosessie tydens die amptelike opening van 6 Februarie 2004, in kleurvolle akademiese togas, vanaf ons wortels in Grey-Kollege tot by die Hoof­gebou, het die reistog vanaf die verlede na die hede treffend ge­simbo­liseer.

Talle ander eeufeesgeleenthede het gedurende hierdie jaar plaasgevind. Woensdagaand het ons die premiêre van ‘n dokumentêre film oor koning Moshoeshoe beleef – ‘n belangrike eeufeesprojek van die UV wat onder meer gemik is op die ontwikkeling van ‘ n gedeede geskiedenisbesef – a shared sense of history – and the celebration of a very special leadership, of a spirit of nation-building and reconciliation, in somebody like king Moshoeshoe (also MT Steyn and others…)

Last night we experienced a wonderful and moving honorary doctorary ceremony, with a wonderful group of South Africans like Khotso Mokhele, Antjie Krog, Jakes Gerwel, Van Zyl Slabbert, Jaap Steyn, Saleem Badat, and others - giving so much food for thought.

This evening, where we honour outstanding contributors to the development of this University, is a suitable moment to reflect on the course of the first 100 years of the University of the Free State.

1. ‘n Voëlvlug oor die geskiedenis: die vyf fases

1.1 Eerste fase: 1904 – 1927 (Eerste kwarteeu)

Eerste wankelende treë in die totstandkoming van die
Grey Universiteitskollege

Gedurende 1904 – 1920 word die eerste en mees basiese vakke in geestes- en natuurweten­skappe ingestel, eerste Senaat en eerste Raad saamgestel, en eerste geboue opgerig (hoofgebou en manskoshuis). Teen 1920 was daar egter slegs ongeveer 100 studente, die instelling was finansieel in die knyp, met geen vooruitgang en groei, en ook nie ‘n vaste rektor nie – klaar­blyk­lik was die GUK nog geen lewensvatbare instelling nie. Vrystaatse kinders word steeds eerder na ander universiteite gestuur.

Hierna maak ds JD Kestell, rektor 1920 – 1927, ‘n reuse bydrae om ‘n versukkelde, arm, klein universiteitskollege lewensvatbaat te kry. Hy slaag met fonds­insameling en oortuig Afrikaanse én Engelse ouers om hulle kinders na die GUK te stuur. Teen 1927, met 420 studente, word die eerste nederige mylpale van kritiese massa bereik te midde van ‘n steeds armoedige Vrystaat­se gemeenskap en ‘n studentekorps met gelapte klere. [Maar ook die tyd waarin die Reitz-saal, waarin hierdie plegtigheid plaasvind, gebou is.]

1.2 Second phase: 1927 – 1950 (Tweede kwarteeu)

The Grey University College becomes a fully fledged university

By 1950 the establishment of main basic and career-oriented faculties were completed – Faculty of Commerce in 1937; Faculty of Law as wel as the Faculty of Education in 1945. Student numbers reached 1000 in 1950.

Die UKOVS beleef en oorleef die Groot Depressie, die armblankevraagstuk, die Tweede Wêreldoorlog, taal- en politieke stryd onder Afrikaners, en die stryd van Nat vs Sap, ook op die kampus. Die tydperk word veral gestempel deur die taalstryd met DF Malherbe (rektor 1929 – 1934) as sterk kampvegter vir Afrikaans. Veral na 1948 volg rektor Van der Merwe Scholtz ‘n doelbewuste enkel­talige Afrikaanse rigting (Christelik-nasionaal).

1.3 Derde fase: 1950 – 1976 (Derde kwarteeu)

Ongekompliseerde groei ná onafhanklikheid

Hierdie periode word gestempel deur verkryging van onafhanklikheid as universiteit op 18 Maart 1950. Daarna beleef die UOVS onder rektore Scholtz, Flippie Groene­woud en Benedictus Kok stelselmatige groei sonder beduidende finansiële kommer. Die UV is duidelik ‘n Afrikaanse ‘volksuniversiteit’ op Christelik-nasionale grondslag, onlosmaaklik in­gebed in die dominante politieke bedeling van apartheid en afsonder­like ontwikke­ling. Dit is die hooggety van Afrikaner (en blanke) self­vertroue en heerskappy. Vir personeel sowel as studente is dit ‘n relatief onge­kom­­pliseerde tyd getipeer deur groeiende voor­spoed in die blanke en Afrikaanse gemeenskap, goeie werksvooruitsigte vir studente, kommer­lose studentepret, en min spanning op die kampus.

The academic focus is on teaching, especially to provide staff for the growing public service and education sectors. Research has a low profile. More career-oriented or professional faculties are established: agriculture in 1958 and the medical faculty in 1970. Student numbers reach 2000 in 1960, 4000 in 1970 en 7000 in 1975. Many new residences and academic buildings are erected, especially in the Kok-era.

Teen 1976 was die vernaamste boustene van ‘n medium-grootte universiteit in posisie: onafhanklikheid, genoeg fakulteite, genoeg koshuise en akademiese geboue, goeie sport en kultuur. Op die oog af is die ideaal van volwaardige, onaf­hanklike universiteit verwesenlik.

1.4 Vierde fase: 1976 – 1989

Op koers na die jaar 2000: van die statiese na vernuwing

Politieke onstabiliteit en oorgang in die land begin met die Soweto-onluste, die drie-kamer parlement, PW Botha se Rubicon-toespraak, noodtoestande, die ‘struggle’ en opkoms van UDF, en so meer. Die UOVS is swaar onder die indruk van die ‘totale aanslag’ en die regering se totale teen-strategie. Die Universiteit word polities en akade­mies geïsoleer en intellektueel gemarginaliseer. Ekonomies is dit moeiliker tye na die oliekrisis en die begin van hoë inflasie, en die Staat se finansies wat begin knyp.

Academically this period is distinguished by the strong stimulation and support of the research capacity and orientation by rector Wynand Mouton, which leads to a significant growth in research, especially in the natural sciences. The faculty of Theology is establishyed, the Sasol-UFS library erected. Student numbers continue to grow, but at a much slower rate then before.

Twee ander fasette kenmerk hierdie tydperk: eerstens die toelating van die eerste swart studente (nagraadse 1978, voorgraads 1988) en die begin van die era van multikulturaliteit; tweedens, die begin van subsidie- en finansiële probleme en die eerste rasionalisasie van personeel. Albei hierdie is voortekens van ingewikkelde jare wat sou volg vanaf 1990.

1.5 Fifth phase: 1990 – 2004: The turn of the century brings winds of change

(a) 1990 – 1996:

Die Francois Retief era word gedomineer deur die gevolge van die politieke verande­ringe deur president FW de Klerk en die vrylating van Nelson Mandela. Die UV ontwaak tot die realiteit van die oorgang na ‘n post-apartheid samelewing en komende ANC regering. Die eerste versigtige trans­for­ma­sie­stappe word ingestel, multikulturaliteit word die groot uitdaging, en die eerste fasiliterende strukture (bv. die Multikulturele Komitee) word gevestig. Die eerste senior swart personeel word aangestel.

The dramatic decision about the introduction of parallel-medium teaching in 1993 signals the start of multilingualism as well as a significant growth in the admission of black students. Total student numbers are stable at approximately 9000, but black student numbers grow to 36% in 1995. Initially the change to parallel-medium impact negatively on staff teaching load and hence onresearch outputs.

Die inkrimping in staatsubsidie lei tot ernstige finansiële probleme, besparings­pogings, grootskaalse rasionalisasie van personeel in veral die fakulteit Lettere en Wysbegeerte, spanning tussen Senaat en rektoraat oor finansies – en mismoedig­heid onder personeel.

(b) 1997 – 2004:

The time of rector Stef Coetzee and his successor is the era of the new democracy and transformation. At the beginning of this phase Afrikaans parents start sending their children to other Afrikaans universities; residence become half full. Tensions arise between student groups. This is followed by the large breakthroughs in student transformation in 1997, which normalises the situation. The University becomes a leader in transformation. This leads to the acceptance of the multicultural and multilingual character, on a Christian foundation, of the University. The name changes to the University of the Free State (UFS).

Met ‘n finansiële krisis en verdere rasionalisasie van personeel op hande word die akade­miese en finansiële ‘draaistrategie’ in Januarie 2000 geloods. ‘n Drama­tiese finansiële ommekeer lei tot herinvestering in kampus­fasiliteite en toerusting, ‘n toename in personeel en beduidende verhoging in vergoeding bokant inflasie. Terselfdertyd is daar ‘n opbloei in die akademie: innoverende onderrig­programme, e-leer, ‘n fokus op programgehalte. Konsolidering van fakulteite vind plaas, die Bestuurskool word gestig, daar is sterk internasio­na­lisering en groei in navorsing. Profes­sionele bemarking en strategiese kommunikasie verander die beeld van die UV.

Studentegetalle groei dramaties van 10 000 in 2000 na meer as
23 000 in 2003/4; groei moet nou beperk word. Afrikaanse studente keer terug; koshuise kry lang waglyste. Die verhou­ding tussen wit en swart studente op die hoofkampus is rondom 50:50.

The period ends with the incorporation of the Qwaqwa en Vista Bloemfontein campuses, the approval of a new language policy which also established multilingualism in management and administration, and purposeful efforts to consolidate the foundations of an institutional culture of multiculturalism, multilingualism, non-racialism and non-sexism – a culture of tolerance, embracement and justice in diversity. The Centenary is celebrated with harmony and prosperity on the campus in 2004 (although always with a good sprinkling of unexpected challenges and problems).

2. Vanaand bring ons hulde, en sê ons dankie aan, die bouers van die UV

Oor ‘n honderd jaar het honderde, duisende mense ‘n bydrae gelewer tot die UV se ontwikkeling.

Kom ons eer en dank diegene wat, 100 jaar gelede in a baie arm gemeen­skap wat bykans verwoes is deur die Anglo-Boere oorlog, nooit opgehou droom het oor ‘n eie universiteit om die jongmense te dien, om die mense te dien – die arm Vrystaatse mense van daardie tyd.

Let us honour and thank all those who painstaking built this university from very humble beginnings, from the first fragments and embrio of a university – through a hundred years of various wars, of the struggle, of poverty, of bad times but also good times.

In elke dekade, in elke een van die honderd jaar, is hierdie instelling gebou deur die harde werk, idealisme en verbintenis (“commitment”) van leiers, akademiese personeel, steundiens­personeel, dienswerkers. Laat ons hulle eer en dank.

Let us honour the spirit of commitment and ‘vasbyt’, of ‘never let go’, the determination to overcome obstacles, of timely and pre-emptive adjustment to new challenges and new needs, which made that possible.

Kom ons vier en eer die duisende studente wat in die 100 jaar hier was, wat die spesiale tradisies en spesiale gees geskep het van Kovsiekampus, van Kovsie studentelewe – en wat gedurig nuwe tradisies en gebruike geskep (en gepleeg) het, soos net studente dit kan doen.

Let us celebrate the way this University has, in the last 20 years, once again taken up the challenge of transformation and adjusting to new needs, serving all the people, especially those most in need at this time of our history – thereby closing the circle, going fully “from post Anglo-Boer War to Post-Apartheid”.

Kom ons vier, en wees innig dankbaar vir, die wyse waarop hierdie Universiteit in die laaste 5 jaar gedraai het, finansieel sowel as akademies, en die wonderlike periode van akademiese groei en ontwikkeling en verdieping waarin ons nou staan – tesame met die geleenthede wat QwaQwa en Vista Bfn vir ons bied. Hierdie voorspoed sien ons in die nuwe fisiese aangesig van die kampus, insluitend hierdie wonderlike Eeufeeskompleks.

Let us thank God, the Almighty, who has guided this university through a tumultuous century, for always being there for us, for blessing us in so many ways. In Deo Sapientiae Lux

* * *

So: vanaand is ons hier om erkenning te gee en dankie te sê…

Soveel mense het veel vroeër hul fondament-leggende bydraes gelewer, en alles wat ons vandag hier sien, moontlik gemaak. Selfs mense uit meer onlangse jare is reeds oorlede – enkeles terwyl hulle nog in diens van die UV was, ander na hul aftrede.

‘n Bepaalde groep was bevoorreg en geseend om in die laaste ongeveer 30 jaar by die UV betrokke te kon wees, én om vandag nog in die lewe te wees. Dit is van hulle wat vanaand hier is, en wat vanaand Eeufeesmedaljes ontvang.

Geweldige moeite is gedoen om hierdie proses van seleksie en keuring so billik en deeglik as moontlik te doen. Uiteraard is so ‘n proses nie volmaak nie en sal almal nie saamstem met die uitkomste van die proses nie. Groot moeite is egter gedoen in hierdie fase om mense nie verkeerdelik uit te laat uit of in te sluit in die toekenningslys nie, in volle bewustheid dat daar waarskynlik steeds foute gemaak sal word. Onvermydelik sal daar foute wees, of mense wat uitgelaat is. Ons vra daarvoor nederig om verskoning en begrip.

Billikheid, so ‘n belangrike rigsnoer vir hierdie Universiteit, veral in hierdie tye, lei ons ook dat ons oë oop is vir die bydraes vir mense uit alle afdelings van die Universiteit, wat lei tot ‘n bepaalde balans tussen fakulteite, tussen fakulteite en steundienste, tussen poskategorieë, tussen geslag en ras, en individue soveel as mense in spanverband.

In Deo Sapientiae Lux

God bless this university / Modimo o thlonolofatse yunivesithi ena

Khotso Pula Nala

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