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Dr Calvin Mudzingiri
Dr Calvin Mudzingiri, Assistant Dean: Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, University of the Free State, Qwaqwa Campus.

Opinion article by Dr Calvin Mudzingiri, Assistant Dean: Economic and Management Sciences, University of the Free State, Qwaqwa Campus 


The sudden hike of import tariffs by US President Donald Trump and his administration to countries across the world is set to reduce the volume of goods traded and affect citizen welfare across the globe. The Trump administration implemented a global 10% import tariff and a varying targeted reciprocal tariff to a host of countries, including South Africa. The reciprocal import tariff to be levied on South African export goods to the US is set at 30%. Historical data show that yearly trade between SA and US amounts to $23 billion and the US is SA’s the second biggest trading partner after China. The high tariff will reduce the competitiveness of South African export goods to American markets, leading to reduced demand of SA exports in US markets, low income to firms, job losses, low income to households and ultimately lower South African economic growth.

 

SA and US trade

South Africa exports platinum, locally assembled cars, raw aluminium, ferroalloys and agriculture products, among other goods, to the US. The implication of the US administration’s 30% tariff hike could result in job losses in the mining, automobile, agriculture and many other industries. More income losses to SA agricultural exports can also be experienced if the African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) expires in September 2025, if the US congressmen decide not to renew the agreement. Given the low economic growth rate in South Africa in 2024, which is estimated at 0.6%, the tariff hike by the US will exacerbate sluggish economic growth and recovery from the COVID 19 pandemic. 

Statistics also show that SA imports energy products, machinery, vehicle, industrial and other consumer goods. The goods and services SA imports from the US play a critical role in developing and sustaining local industry. SA can decide to source the goods from other markets and if this happens with all economies where tariffs were imposed, the US will be worse off. There is a possibility that economies which received a tariff hike from the US will implement a reciprocal tariff hike to the US reducing the volume of global trade. The reduced trade volumes have dire implications for job creation, income generation by firms and households, making citizens worse off.


US current trade policy

It is important to note that President Trump administration’s trade policies are premised on a trade notion synonymous to ‘mercantilism’, which was practised in Europe between the 16th to 18th centuries. Under mercantilism, an economy aims to maintain a trade surplus, the government regulate the economy, discourage imports (in the case of the US using tariff hikes) and promote growth of home industries among other initiatives. Conventional economics wisdom has proved that policies pursued by the Trump administration of protectionism are a breeding ground for trade wars. There is great potential of fellow trading partners retaliating and if that happens, global citizens will be made worse off as they will be forced to pay high prices for goods due to additional costs driven by tariff hikes. In addition, US industry relies on raw materials from other countries. If the suppliers of raw material resources retaliate, the production cost model of US firms will rise, reducing export competitiveness of US exports.

Trump’s administration is calling for firms across the world to move and produce goods in the US to avoid tariff levies. The action works against the benefits of free trade and can affect firms’ comparative advantages. The production cost structure in the US can be higher than in other countries leading to firms realising low profits if they move to the US. It is essential to note that free trade with absolutely no trade barriers will enhance the welfare of citizens at large, since goods and services will be purchased at low prices. The US government’s act of over-regulating trade can limit economic growth not only of other countries but even that of the US economy.

 

Options for the SA government

In the face of trade adversity, the SA government must not fold its hands and do nothing. It is enlightening to note that the authorities have already initiated diplomatic and trade negotiations. Negotiations can possibly focus on tariff reduction, maintaining the AGOA, and delving deep in the logic used to arrive at the 30% tariff hike. The diplomatic initiatives must encompass improving perceptions and clarity of SA policies such as the Expropriation Act which is one of the reasons cited by the US administration in ratcheting the tariff trade war.

South Africa must re-orient its trading patterns and partnerships. The aggregate world gross domestic product (GDP) is greater than the US total production for goods and services. There is need for SA to improve trade relations with other economies to broaden its trade base. The current frosty trade relationship between SA and the US presents a window to strengthen trade with the EU, Asia, BRICS plus, Africa, and any other economy willing to get into trade partnerships. SA must explore other markets where the export goods still enjoy competitiveness.

To ensure economic resilience to trade wars in the long run, SA needs to seriously invest in research and development that promote value addition of local production, enhancing local production and technology advancement that can stimulate economies of scale, which can boost competitiveness of export goods. Competitiveness can be further enhanced by improving energy production efficiency, which is a crucial input of goods and services production. Developing a powerful and skilled human capital base can lead to labour productivity efficiency, further enhancing competitiveness. SA has a dilapidated infrastructure ranging from roads, rail, buildings and industry among others. Improving the infrastructure will go a long way in improving local production, leading to creation of jobs and improved incomes for households.

Boosting local economic activity can stimulate local consumption of goods as household income improves. If the incomes of SA citizens improve, there is a potential to increase local consumption. Goods meant for export markets can end up being consumed in the domestic markets, providing a homemade solution to dwindling export goods markets. The SA government must consider developing and supporting new industries that can compete in the local and international markets. In this way, the trade challenges posed by unfriendly US administration trade policies can present opportunities to the SA economy in the long run.

News Archive

Qwaqwa Campus opens: Prof. PA Mbati's speech
2005-01-22

Official welcome speech by Prof. PA Mbati for 2005 first year students held on Saturday 22nd January 2005. Program Director, The Chief Director Operations Rev. Kiepi Jaftha, Dean of Students Dr. Natie Luyt, Program Head of the Faculty of Humanities, Dr. Elias Malete, Program Head of Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, Prof. Riaan Luyt, Acting Program Head of the Faculty of Economics and Management Sciences Prof. Andries Venter, Deputy Director Student Affairs Mr. Teboho Manchu, Coordinator Finance: Mrs. Elizabeth Nchapi, Senior Librarian Mr. Stoffel Kok, Senior Magistrate Mr Saul Mohosho, SRC President Mr. Tello Motloung, members of staff, invited guests, parents, guardians, my dear students, ladies and gentlemen.

It is indeed my pleasure to welcome you to the official welcoming ceremony of the UFS-Qwaqwa Campus 2005 first year students. Our Rector and Vice Chancellor Professor Frederick has requested me to pass to you his warmest wishes and regards on this special occasion. I am confident that the orientation exercise in which you have participated has achieved the desired effect of introducing you to your new way of life here on campus, and that you are now sufficiently prepared to get on with the rigors of being a student at this University.

Following the restructuring of the higher education landscape, the Qwaqwa campus was incorporated into the University of the Free State with effect from January 1 2003 . As a consequence, Management was faced with a whole complex series of challenges including, primarily making the campus financially viable, but also ensuring that it remains relevant in it’s core business as a satellite campus of the University of the Free State in terms of its teaching, learning, research and community service responsibilities.

A whole series of strategic planning workshops were conducted last year with both internal and external stakeholders. Various important strategic objectives were flagged out, and the next level of consultation will take place soon. I know that there is a lot of eagerness, sometimes to the level of impatience to see this process completed as quickly as possible. But again on the other hand, due to the far reaching consequences of any hasty decisions, plus the need for a carefully planned process, we need to be a little more patient before the implementation of the strategic objectives is implemented. You will be kept informed as this important and critical aspect in the evolution of our campus takes place.

As a response to the need for a more effective governance model on the Qwaqwa campus, a review of the governance structure was completed towards the end of 2004 and will soon serve before the Executive of the Executive Management for approval.

Due to the importance that top management attaches to the development of an effective governance on the Qwaqwa campus, the process was facilitated by an internationally acclaimed consultant. Again the contents of the revised governance model will be made known to the campus and the broader community once it is approved.

I am glad to report that in recognition of the need to improve the infrastructure on campus to provide a conducive learning atmosphere to our students, a total of 8.2 million rands was made available towards the end of 2004 for recapitalization of specifically our student residences and lecture venues. The first phase of the residence renovation is completed and residences C, D and E have now been officially handed over to the University by the Contractor. Among the features of the renovated residences is that they will now computer rooms, kitchenettes for cooking, and a redesigned TV room. The rooms have even been fitted with heaters. Our challenge will now be to maintain our newly acquired facilities and to ensure that they do not again deteriorate to an un-acceptable level. The second phase of renovation will start soon.

As indicated in my address during the orientation week, our obligation to you as a campus is to offer you quality training to the best of our ability, and to disseminate this knowledge to you within a conducive atmosphere worthy of good learning. On the other hand, our students have to take advantage of this opportunity to acquire the necessary skills and training in the various academic programs that we offer on campus.

We have a very simple agenda on this campus – our vision is to continuously strive to build and develop the Qwaqwa campus of University of the Free State into a truly quality institution of higher learning in our country. To develop a tradition and culture in which we are proud of who we are, and constantly and tirelessly working towards excellence in our academic programs, and other non-academic but core and important aspects in your growth and development such as sport and community service. To nurture young conscientious citizens who are aware of their duties and responsibilities. Ultimately to produce hard working young people who fully exploit their potentials, and who will serve this country with diligence when unleashed into the real world in effectively managing their roles and responsibilities in society, whether in private or government civil service.

I would like to encourage that the various stake holders of this campus, the students, academic, administrative and support staff, and our broader community, to work together in harmony for the well being of our campus. For this campus to continue to be relevant in the environment that we find ourselves, there is a need for continuous engagement of its various stake holders, and genuinely listening to each other. We must continuously and regularly keep our feelers on alert in order that we can remain relevant.

I am particularly inviting our parents and guardians, the alumni of this campus, and leaders from our community to join hands with us in seeking solutions to the various challenges that we continue to face on campus. I am open for frank and honest discourse on the best way forward for our campus.

The University of the Free State is committed in making tertiary education accessible to as many students as possible. In this regard, students who do not have the required ‘M’ score to gain entry into main stream classes are given an opportunity to study in the highly successful ‘bridging program’ in which learners are integrated with main stream students but with fewer courses to tackle in order to ensure success. This is done on the premise that such students have the potential to pursue a degree course, and that therefore within a well structured program, they can make a success of their lives.

The University is conscious of the fact that in many instances several academically deserving students fail to be admitted into university due to financial reasons. For students who are academically deserving but who because of reasons of poverty cannot pay the requisite fees, the university is able to assist such students through the National Financial Aid Scheme – commonly known as NSFAS, and University Merit Awards. Other incentives such as Sports bursaries are also available.

Please remember that it is important to balance your life on campus and the phrase ‘a healthy mind in a healthy body’ aptly describes this statement. Ensure that you participate in sport and cultural activities of this campus so that you can develop and strengthen the various God-given talents that you have been blessed with.

A second major ingredient for your success on campus is discipline and respect for rules, policies and procedures that govern the University of the Free State , and respect for your fellow students. Good discipline is a major contributory factor to success in life, and more so in your formative academic life at University. This means for example that you must attend all your lectures, complete your assignments on-time and visit the library frequently. Please manage your time wisely and responsibly. Remember that as a university student, you are basically the master and architect of your own destiny.

Think very carefully when you are confronted with difficult situations, be they negative peer pressure, or temptations to indulge in intoxicating drugs, and make the right choice.

The University has well trained personnel including a social worker, a psychologist and counselor, and members of the student affairs division under the leadership of Mr. Teboho Manchu, Deputy Director Student Affairs, who are available to assist whenever you require their help.

Today is also a special day because we have officially inaugurated the SRC President and the rest of the SRC leadership. I am sure that you all join me in congratulating the SRC for being elected to their leadership roles for 2005. Mr. SRC president and your team, please remember that you now have a huge responsibility in carrying out the aspirations of the student body on campus. I want to wish you luck and success as you champion the rights of your constituents, which I believe and trust will be compatible with management’s expectations with regard to quality teaching and learning on campus. As you are aware, Management values the input that the student leadership makes in the operational management of the affairs of this campus, and we look forward to a cordial, non-confrontational working relationship with a view of rendering un-paralleled service on campus.

Mr. Program Director, allow me to wish everyone here a successful and prosperous year. May the good Lord give us the strength and courage to overcome any obstacle that may be placed in our way in the course of our work in 2005.

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