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Dr Calvin Mudzingiri
Dr Calvin Mudzingiri, Assistant Dean: Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, University of the Free State, Qwaqwa Campus.

Opinion article by Dr Calvin Mudzingiri, Assistant Dean: Economic and Management Sciences, University of the Free State, Qwaqwa Campus 


The sudden hike of import tariffs by US President Donald Trump and his administration to countries across the world is set to reduce the volume of goods traded and affect citizen welfare across the globe. The Trump administration implemented a global 10% import tariff and a varying targeted reciprocal tariff to a host of countries, including South Africa. The reciprocal import tariff to be levied on South African export goods to the US is set at 30%. Historical data show that yearly trade between SA and US amounts to $23 billion and the US is SA’s the second biggest trading partner after China. The high tariff will reduce the competitiveness of South African export goods to American markets, leading to reduced demand of SA exports in US markets, low income to firms, job losses, low income to households and ultimately lower South African economic growth.

 

SA and US trade

South Africa exports platinum, locally assembled cars, raw aluminium, ferroalloys and agriculture products, among other goods, to the US. The implication of the US administration’s 30% tariff hike could result in job losses in the mining, automobile, agriculture and many other industries. More income losses to SA agricultural exports can also be experienced if the African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) expires in September 2025, if the US congressmen decide not to renew the agreement. Given the low economic growth rate in South Africa in 2024, which is estimated at 0.6%, the tariff hike by the US will exacerbate sluggish economic growth and recovery from the COVID 19 pandemic. 

Statistics also show that SA imports energy products, machinery, vehicle, industrial and other consumer goods. The goods and services SA imports from the US play a critical role in developing and sustaining local industry. SA can decide to source the goods from other markets and if this happens with all economies where tariffs were imposed, the US will be worse off. There is a possibility that economies which received a tariff hike from the US will implement a reciprocal tariff hike to the US reducing the volume of global trade. The reduced trade volumes have dire implications for job creation, income generation by firms and households, making citizens worse off.


US current trade policy

It is important to note that President Trump administration’s trade policies are premised on a trade notion synonymous to ‘mercantilism’, which was practised in Europe between the 16th to 18th centuries. Under mercantilism, an economy aims to maintain a trade surplus, the government regulate the economy, discourage imports (in the case of the US using tariff hikes) and promote growth of home industries among other initiatives. Conventional economics wisdom has proved that policies pursued by the Trump administration of protectionism are a breeding ground for trade wars. There is great potential of fellow trading partners retaliating and if that happens, global citizens will be made worse off as they will be forced to pay high prices for goods due to additional costs driven by tariff hikes. In addition, US industry relies on raw materials from other countries. If the suppliers of raw material resources retaliate, the production cost model of US firms will rise, reducing export competitiveness of US exports.

Trump’s administration is calling for firms across the world to move and produce goods in the US to avoid tariff levies. The action works against the benefits of free trade and can affect firms’ comparative advantages. The production cost structure in the US can be higher than in other countries leading to firms realising low profits if they move to the US. It is essential to note that free trade with absolutely no trade barriers will enhance the welfare of citizens at large, since goods and services will be purchased at low prices. The US government’s act of over-regulating trade can limit economic growth not only of other countries but even that of the US economy.

 

Options for the SA government

In the face of trade adversity, the SA government must not fold its hands and do nothing. It is enlightening to note that the authorities have already initiated diplomatic and trade negotiations. Negotiations can possibly focus on tariff reduction, maintaining the AGOA, and delving deep in the logic used to arrive at the 30% tariff hike. The diplomatic initiatives must encompass improving perceptions and clarity of SA policies such as the Expropriation Act which is one of the reasons cited by the US administration in ratcheting the tariff trade war.

South Africa must re-orient its trading patterns and partnerships. The aggregate world gross domestic product (GDP) is greater than the US total production for goods and services. There is need for SA to improve trade relations with other economies to broaden its trade base. The current frosty trade relationship between SA and the US presents a window to strengthen trade with the EU, Asia, BRICS plus, Africa, and any other economy willing to get into trade partnerships. SA must explore other markets where the export goods still enjoy competitiveness.

To ensure economic resilience to trade wars in the long run, SA needs to seriously invest in research and development that promote value addition of local production, enhancing local production and technology advancement that can stimulate economies of scale, which can boost competitiveness of export goods. Competitiveness can be further enhanced by improving energy production efficiency, which is a crucial input of goods and services production. Developing a powerful and skilled human capital base can lead to labour productivity efficiency, further enhancing competitiveness. SA has a dilapidated infrastructure ranging from roads, rail, buildings and industry among others. Improving the infrastructure will go a long way in improving local production, leading to creation of jobs and improved incomes for households.

Boosting local economic activity can stimulate local consumption of goods as household income improves. If the incomes of SA citizens improve, there is a potential to increase local consumption. Goods meant for export markets can end up being consumed in the domestic markets, providing a homemade solution to dwindling export goods markets. The SA government must consider developing and supporting new industries that can compete in the local and international markets. In this way, the trade challenges posed by unfriendly US administration trade policies can present opportunities to the SA economy in the long run.

News Archive

UFS boasts with most advanced chemical research apparatus in Africa
2005-11-23

Celebrating the inauguration of the NMR were from the left Prof Frederick Fourie (Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS),  Dr Detlef Müller (Development Scientist and Manager:  Africa and Asia of Bruker in Germany, the supplier of the NMR), Prof Jannie Swarts (head of the head of the Division Physical Chemistry at the UFS) and Prof Herman van Schalkwyk (Dean:  Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences at the UFS). Photo: Lacea Loader

UFS boasts with most advanced chemical research apparatus in Africa 

The University of the Free State’s (UFS) Department of Chemistry now boasts with some of the most advanced chemical research apparatus in Africa after the latest addition, a nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectrometer, was inaugurated today by the Rector and Vice-Chancellor, Prof Frederick Fourie.  The NMR is used to analyse molecular structures. 

Last month the Department of Chemistry celebrated the installation of the most advanced single crystal X-ray diffractometer in Africa.  The diffractometer provides an indispensable technique to investigate among others the solid state of compounds for medicinal application.

“Three years ago the UFS executive management realised that, if we want to build a university of excellence, we should invest in research.  We started to think strategically about chemistry and decided to bring the apparatus at the Department of Chemistry on a more competitive standard.  Strategic partnerships were therefore secured with companies like Sasol,” said Prof Fourie during the inauguration ceremony.

“The installation of the NMR symbolises the ability of the UFS to turn academic areas around.  I hope that this is the beginning of a decade of excellence for chemistry at the UFS,” said Prof Fourie.

”The catalogue value of the Bruker 600 MHz NMR is approximately R11 million.  With such an advanced apparatus we are now able to train much more post-graduate students,“ said Prof Jannie Swarts, head of the Division Physical Chemistry at the UFS.

”The NMR is the flagship apparatus of the UFS Department of Chemistry that enables chemists to look at compounds more easily at a molecular level.  Research in chemistry is critically dependent on NMR, which is a technique that can determine the composition of reactants and products in complicated chemical reactions, with direct application is most focus areas in chemistry,“ said Prof Swarts.

”Parts of the spectrometer consists of non-commercial items that were specifically designed for the UFS Department of Chemistry to allow the study of unique interactions in e.g. rhodium and platinum compounds,” said Prof Swarts.

According to Prof Swarts the NMR enables chemists to conduct investigations on the following:

To evaluate for example the complex behaviour of DNA in proteins as well as the analysis of illegal drugs sometimes used by athletes. 
It provides an indispensable technique to investigate compounds for medicinal application for example in breast, prostate and related bone cancer identification and therapy, which are currently synthesised in the Department of Chemistry.  
It can also be applied to the area of homogeneous catalysis where new and improved compounds for industrial application are synthesized and characterised, whereby Sasol and even the international petrochemical industry could benefit. This analytical capacity is highly rated, especially in the current climate of increased oil prices.
The NMR can detect and identify small concentrations of impurities in feed streams in the petrochemical industry, e.g. at Sasol and also the international petrochemical industry.  These minute amounts of impurities can result in metal catalyst deactivation or decomposition and can cause million of rands worth in product losses.
It is indispensable for studying the complexity of samples that is non-crystalline. These materials represent the vast majority of chemical compounds such as solvents, gasoline, cooking oil, cleaning agents and colorants as examples. 

According to Prof Swarts the general medical technique of MRI (magnetic resonance imaging) in use at larger hospitals, is based on NMR technology.

”The NMR apparatus enabled the Department of Chemistry to characterise complex molecules that were synthesised for the multi-national company, FARMOFS-PAREXEL, and to negotiate research agreements with overseas universities,” said Prof Swarts. 

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel:  (051) 401-2584
Cell:  083 645 2454
E-mail:  loaderl.stg@mail.uovs.ac.za
22 November 2005
 

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