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07 April 2025 Photo Supplied
Dr Calvin Mudzingiri
Dr Calvin Mudzingiri, Assistant Dean: Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, University of the Free State, Qwaqwa Campus.

Opinion article by Dr Calvin Mudzingiri, Assistant Dean: Economic and Management Sciences, University of the Free State, Qwaqwa Campus 


The sudden hike of import tariffs by US President Donald Trump and his administration to countries across the world is set to reduce the volume of goods traded and affect citizen welfare across the globe. The Trump administration implemented a global 10% import tariff and a varying targeted reciprocal tariff to a host of countries, including South Africa. The reciprocal import tariff to be levied on South African export goods to the US is set at 30%. Historical data show that yearly trade between SA and US amounts to $23 billion and the US is SA’s the second biggest trading partner after China. The high tariff will reduce the competitiveness of South African export goods to American markets, leading to reduced demand of SA exports in US markets, low income to firms, job losses, low income to households and ultimately lower South African economic growth.

 

SA and US trade

South Africa exports platinum, locally assembled cars, raw aluminium, ferroalloys and agriculture products, among other goods, to the US. The implication of the US administration’s 30% tariff hike could result in job losses in the mining, automobile, agriculture and many other industries. More income losses to SA agricultural exports can also be experienced if the African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) expires in September 2025, if the US congressmen decide not to renew the agreement. Given the low economic growth rate in South Africa in 2024, which is estimated at 0.6%, the tariff hike by the US will exacerbate sluggish economic growth and recovery from the COVID 19 pandemic. 

Statistics also show that SA imports energy products, machinery, vehicle, industrial and other consumer goods. The goods and services SA imports from the US play a critical role in developing and sustaining local industry. SA can decide to source the goods from other markets and if this happens with all economies where tariffs were imposed, the US will be worse off. There is a possibility that economies which received a tariff hike from the US will implement a reciprocal tariff hike to the US reducing the volume of global trade. The reduced trade volumes have dire implications for job creation, income generation by firms and households, making citizens worse off.


US current trade policy

It is important to note that President Trump administration’s trade policies are premised on a trade notion synonymous to ‘mercantilism’, which was practised in Europe between the 16th to 18th centuries. Under mercantilism, an economy aims to maintain a trade surplus, the government regulate the economy, discourage imports (in the case of the US using tariff hikes) and promote growth of home industries among other initiatives. Conventional economics wisdom has proved that policies pursued by the Trump administration of protectionism are a breeding ground for trade wars. There is great potential of fellow trading partners retaliating and if that happens, global citizens will be made worse off as they will be forced to pay high prices for goods due to additional costs driven by tariff hikes. In addition, US industry relies on raw materials from other countries. If the suppliers of raw material resources retaliate, the production cost model of US firms will rise, reducing export competitiveness of US exports.

Trump’s administration is calling for firms across the world to move and produce goods in the US to avoid tariff levies. The action works against the benefits of free trade and can affect firms’ comparative advantages. The production cost structure in the US can be higher than in other countries leading to firms realising low profits if they move to the US. It is essential to note that free trade with absolutely no trade barriers will enhance the welfare of citizens at large, since goods and services will be purchased at low prices. The US government’s act of over-regulating trade can limit economic growth not only of other countries but even that of the US economy.

 

Options for the SA government

In the face of trade adversity, the SA government must not fold its hands and do nothing. It is enlightening to note that the authorities have already initiated diplomatic and trade negotiations. Negotiations can possibly focus on tariff reduction, maintaining the AGOA, and delving deep in the logic used to arrive at the 30% tariff hike. The diplomatic initiatives must encompass improving perceptions and clarity of SA policies such as the Expropriation Act which is one of the reasons cited by the US administration in ratcheting the tariff trade war.

South Africa must re-orient its trading patterns and partnerships. The aggregate world gross domestic product (GDP) is greater than the US total production for goods and services. There is need for SA to improve trade relations with other economies to broaden its trade base. The current frosty trade relationship between SA and the US presents a window to strengthen trade with the EU, Asia, BRICS plus, Africa, and any other economy willing to get into trade partnerships. SA must explore other markets where the export goods still enjoy competitiveness.

To ensure economic resilience to trade wars in the long run, SA needs to seriously invest in research and development that promote value addition of local production, enhancing local production and technology advancement that can stimulate economies of scale, which can boost competitiveness of export goods. Competitiveness can be further enhanced by improving energy production efficiency, which is a crucial input of goods and services production. Developing a powerful and skilled human capital base can lead to labour productivity efficiency, further enhancing competitiveness. SA has a dilapidated infrastructure ranging from roads, rail, buildings and industry among others. Improving the infrastructure will go a long way in improving local production, leading to creation of jobs and improved incomes for households.

Boosting local economic activity can stimulate local consumption of goods as household income improves. If the incomes of SA citizens improve, there is a potential to increase local consumption. Goods meant for export markets can end up being consumed in the domestic markets, providing a homemade solution to dwindling export goods markets. The SA government must consider developing and supporting new industries that can compete in the local and international markets. In this way, the trade challenges posed by unfriendly US administration trade policies can present opportunities to the SA economy in the long run.

News Archive

SA-YSSP scholars attend high level colloquium with policy makers and research stakeholders
2014-02-12

From the left are: Prof Frans Swanepoel, Deputy-Director of the African Doctoral Academy, Drs Aldo Stroebel, Executive Director: International Relations and Cooperation at the National Research Foundation, Priscilla Mensah, co-director of the SA-YSSP, and Ulf Dieckmann from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Dean of the SA-YSSP.
Photo: Renè-Jean van den Berg

Scholars taking part in the 2nd Southern African Young Scientists Summer Programme (SA-YSSP), attended a one-week seminar hosted by the African Doctoral Academy at the Stellenbosch University, which concluded with a colloquium at the Stellenbosch Institute for Advanced Study.

This was part of the final leg of their three-month stay and studies at the University of the Free State.

This seminar was a capacity development intervention with the purpose of equipping SA-YSSP young scholars with the skills to communicate their research work effectively with different audiences.

The 36 scholars were hand-picked from some of the world’s most promising and top researchers to take part in the novel three-month programme for advanced doctoral candidates. Their research interests closely aligned with the Department of Science and Technology’s (DST) grand challenges and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis’ (IIASA) current research programmes regarding global environmental, economic and social change.

The SA-YSSP is an initiative that contributes to the establishment, growth and enhancement of high-level strategic networks internationally. At the same time it develops capacity in systems analysis at the PhD and supervisory levels through research conducted in the areas of the Department of Science and Technology’s (DST) grand challenges.

At the colloquium, students were expected to showcase their work and research according to their various fields of expertise. High-profile policy makers and policy funders, as well as academia and fellow researchers judged and critiqued the work.

Dr Priscilla Mensah from the UFS and co-director of the programme, says it is important for the young scientists to frame their findings in a way that will be relevant to policy makers and the public at large.

“The partnership with the African Doctoral Academy was crucial in this regard since it is a capacity development entity aimed at strengthening and advancing doctoral education, training and scholarship on the African continent. The objective of this week-long capacity strengthening intervention is to equip the young scientists to be able to communicate their research effectively with different audiences, including potential funders and policy makers.

“I am convinced that the young scientists will no longer view policy makers as abstract entities, but as stakeholders who must be engaged to facilitate implementation of evidence-based policy.”

Dr Aldo Stroebel, Executive Director: International Relations and Cooperation, National Research Foundation, says the purpose of the colloquium is to bring together different sectors in one room to look at different challenges holistically, with an emphasis on systems analysis for a common goal.

The SA-YSSP forms part of an annual three-month education, academic training and research capacity-building programme jointly organised by IIASA, based in Austria, the National Research Foundation (NRF) and the DST. IIASA is an international research organisation that conducts policy-oriented scientific research in the three global problem areas of energy and climate change, food and water, and poverty and equity. South Africa’s engagements with IIASA, specifically with regard to the SA-YSSP, relate primarily to the DST’s Ten-Year Innovation Plan.

The UFS is the first institution outside Austria to host the summer programme. Researchers in the programme are, among others, from South Africa and the rest of the African continent, the USA, the Netherlands, India, Hungary, Austria and Germany.

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