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From agricultural drought to trade tensions – Prof Bahta on securing the future of agriculture

15 August 2025 | Story Martinette Brits | Photo Stephen Collett

Prof Yonas Bahta, Professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of the Free State, delivered his inaugural lecture on the future of agricultural trade and food security, titled Can We Own the Future? The Ever-Changing Dynamics of Agricultural Trade and Food Security Amid Intensifying Agricultural Drought.

With the world hurtling towards a population of 9,7 billion by 2050 – and Africa set to make up more than a quarter of that – the question of whether we can ‘own the future’ has never been more urgent. In his inaugural lecture at the University of the Free State (UFS), Prof Yonas Bahta from the Department of Agricultural Economics warned that climate change, trade tensions, and deepening food insecurity are converging to create unprecedented risks for farmers, economies, and communities.

“We find ourselves at a pivotal moment in human history, characterised by the intersection of climate change, particularly agricultural drought, resource scarcity, geopolitical instability, and the current trade reciprocal tariff, all of which pose significant threats to the foundational structures of global food systems,” he said.

From vulnerability to agency

Prof Bahta highlighted the stark reality that the world population is projected to reach 9,7 billion by 2050, with Africa constituting 2,5 billion. “Despite this growth, the agricultural sector predominantly operates at a subsistence level, with diminishing resources available to farming communities, especially smallholder farmers who rely on agriculture as their primary source of employment and sustenance.”

In South Africa, climate change – particularly agricultural drought – is affecting both commercial and smallholder farmers, with cascading effects on food security, employment, and livelihoods. Coupled with disease outbreaks, these factors lead to reduced crop yields, supply shocks, and trade imbalances that ripple through the economy.

Food insecurity remains a critical concern, with approximately 15 million South African households experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity – a figure even higher (25,5%) among households engaged in agricultural activities. Prof Bahta emphasised that these challenges are compounded by “institutional barriers such as the current trade reciprocal tariff by the USA, limited access to credit, crop and livestock insurance, inadequate road infrastructure, and electricity shortages”.

Despite these challenges, Prof Bahta sees clear opportunities. He pointed to Africa, including South Africa’s extensive arable land; research and innovation have highlighted the benefits of integrating traditional techniques with modern approaches such as climate-smart agriculture and its membership of BRICS and other trading partners as levers for resilience and growth. “Securing the future is not about mere assertion but about the stewardship of markets, data, and people,” he said. By aligning trade policy, drought preparedness, and social protection within robust institutions, “the country can transition from vulnerability to agency, from passively observing the future to actively shaping it. In doing so, we may indeed assert with integrity that ‘We own the future’.”

About Prof Yonas Bahta

Prof Yonas Bahta is a Professor and NRF-rated researcher in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of the Free State. He joined the UFS as a researcher in 2014 and has supervised more than 42 postgraduate students (both MSc and PhD), of whom 29 have completed their studies (10 PhD and 19 MSc).

He holds a PhD (2007) and MSc (2004, with distinction) in Agricultural Economics from the UFS, and a BSc (1994) in Agricultural Economics from Haramaya University, Ethiopia. Prof Bahta serves on the editorial boards of several journals, acts as a reviewer and guest editor, and is a member of several national and international professional bodies.

His work has been recognised with an award from the African Growth and Development Policy Modelling Consortium (AGRODEP), and in 2024 he was rated among the top 2% of researchers globally by Elsevier.

News Archive

Professor launches his book, opposition parties attend

2011-03-22

Prof. Hussein Solomon
Photo: Stephen Collett

“We are good in opposing people, but we’re less good in opposing ideas.” This was how Prof. Jonathan Jansen, Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the University of the Free State (UFS) introduced the book launch of Against all Odds: Opposition Politics in Southern Africa.

The event was hosted in collaboration with the publisher under the title: Are opposition parties in South Africa in a crisis? This formed part of a series of dialogue sessions, organised by the Centre for Africa Studies, in the run up to the local elections.

Amongst those interested who attended the evening in the Senate Hall of the CR Swart Building on the Main Campus were various politicians, students, staff en a panel consisting of academics and the respective provincial representatives of the ANC and DA.

Dr Mcebisi Ndletyana from the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), acted as arbiter.

Proff. Hussein Solomon, author of Against all Odds: Opposition Politics in Southern Africa, also lecturer at the UFS, as well as Dirk Kotzé, Head of the Department of Political Science at Unisa, delivered enriching lectures on the stance and positioning of opposition parties.

Prof. Hussein, who spoke first, circumscribed the context of the political climate in the country, based on his book. “The problem that political science encounters is that everybody becomes experts on the internet, while they have no experience of what is happening in South Africa.” He said that when political parties in the country are under discussion, voters often allow myths and/or stereotyping to influence their concept of it. ‘’If there are no opposition parties, there is no democracy and people are deprived of their vote.”

Prof. Kotzé stated in his speech that it was not only opposition parties who had to make the government watch its step, but also the status that the country acquired, amongst others, from its connections, i.e. collaborative agreements such as BRICSA and the country’s inclusion in the G20. He left the audience with a question about how they were going to become involved in politics, and with his rhetoric question referred to options like social networks and movements.

Mr Sibongile Besani, the ANC'S secretary in the Free State, said the DA grew due to it’s swallowing of other parties; something he claims is taking the country backwards. He also described the use of personalities by opposition parties as means of association a weakness. He added that voters will continue voting for the ANC because they can associate themselves with the party’s vision.

In contrast, Mr Roy Jankielsohn, provincial leader of the DA, said voters and parties unite under their core vision for the country as like in the case of the ANC during the liberation struggles.

During the question-and-answer session, which followed after Mr Jankielson’s speech, Prof. Kwandiwe Kondlo, upon completion and summary of the discussions, stated firmly that the opposition parties are in a crisis. “The start of the solution is to recognise the problem. That is why our democracy finds itself in the state in which it is; because the opposition does not fulfil the role that they are supposed to fulfil.“ Prof. Kondlo is the head of the Centre of Africa Studies at the UFS.

He concluded by stating that the economic basis in the country was not transformed. “We cannot say that people determine their futures if they posses nothing. Opposition parties must start to communicate at this level in order to table something new. Our democracy must become more inclusive at political and material level.”

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