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From agricultural drought to trade tensions – Prof Bahta on securing the future of agriculture

15 August 2025 | Story Martinette Brits | Photo Stephen Collett

Prof Yonas Bahta, Professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of the Free State, delivered his inaugural lecture on the future of agricultural trade and food security, titled Can We Own the Future? The Ever-Changing Dynamics of Agricultural Trade and Food Security Amid Intensifying Agricultural Drought.

With the world hurtling towards a population of 9,7 billion by 2050 – and Africa set to make up more than a quarter of that – the question of whether we can ‘own the future’ has never been more urgent. In his inaugural lecture at the University of the Free State (UFS), Prof Yonas Bahta from the Department of Agricultural Economics warned that climate change, trade tensions, and deepening food insecurity are converging to create unprecedented risks for farmers, economies, and communities.

“We find ourselves at a pivotal moment in human history, characterised by the intersection of climate change, particularly agricultural drought, resource scarcity, geopolitical instability, and the current trade reciprocal tariff, all of which pose significant threats to the foundational structures of global food systems,” he said.

From vulnerability to agency

Prof Bahta highlighted the stark reality that the world population is projected to reach 9,7 billion by 2050, with Africa constituting 2,5 billion. “Despite this growth, the agricultural sector predominantly operates at a subsistence level, with diminishing resources available to farming communities, especially smallholder farmers who rely on agriculture as their primary source of employment and sustenance.”

In South Africa, climate change – particularly agricultural drought – is affecting both commercial and smallholder farmers, with cascading effects on food security, employment, and livelihoods. Coupled with disease outbreaks, these factors lead to reduced crop yields, supply shocks, and trade imbalances that ripple through the economy.

Food insecurity remains a critical concern, with approximately 15 million South African households experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity – a figure even higher (25,5%) among households engaged in agricultural activities. Prof Bahta emphasised that these challenges are compounded by “institutional barriers such as the current trade reciprocal tariff by the USA, limited access to credit, crop and livestock insurance, inadequate road infrastructure, and electricity shortages”.

Despite these challenges, Prof Bahta sees clear opportunities. He pointed to Africa, including South Africa’s extensive arable land; research and innovation have highlighted the benefits of integrating traditional techniques with modern approaches such as climate-smart agriculture and its membership of BRICS and other trading partners as levers for resilience and growth. “Securing the future is not about mere assertion but about the stewardship of markets, data, and people,” he said. By aligning trade policy, drought preparedness, and social protection within robust institutions, “the country can transition from vulnerability to agency, from passively observing the future to actively shaping it. In doing so, we may indeed assert with integrity that ‘We own the future’.”

About Prof Yonas Bahta

Prof Yonas Bahta is a Professor and NRF-rated researcher in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of the Free State. He joined the UFS as a researcher in 2014 and has supervised more than 42 postgraduate students (both MSc and PhD), of whom 29 have completed their studies (10 PhD and 19 MSc).

He holds a PhD (2007) and MSc (2004, with distinction) in Agricultural Economics from the UFS, and a BSc (1994) in Agricultural Economics from Haramaya University, Ethiopia. Prof Bahta serves on the editorial boards of several journals, acts as a reviewer and guest editor, and is a member of several national and international professional bodies.

His work has been recognised with an award from the African Growth and Development Policy Modelling Consortium (AGRODEP), and in 2024 he was rated among the top 2% of researchers globally by Elsevier.

News Archive

UFS receives multimillion rand international funding for Advancement

2013-01-21

21 January 2013

We are one of four South African universities that have been selected to take part in a multimillion-rand programme to bolster private fund-raising and Advancement efforts.

The UFS will receive US$640 000 (R5 612 800) over a period of five years to use in advancement efforts.

In total, the US-based Kresge Foundation will make US$2.5 million available to the four universities, which includes the UFS, Durban University of Technology (DUT), Tshwane University of Technology (TUT) and the University of Johannesburg (UJ), over the next five years as part of a joint initiative with Inyathelo: The South African Institute for Advancement, to support the long-term financial sustainability of higher education institutions in South Africa.

Kresge will also provide programmes and support aimed at enhancing student access to universities and improving graduation rates.

Bill Moses, who directs Kresge’s education programme, says declining government support means that South African university officials need to tap into diversified philanthropic and private funding if they want to enhance their institutions’ ability to serve students better. “Stronger Advancement skills are critical to their success and ultimately to getting more South African students into universities and completing degrees. Advancement is not just about raising funds. It is the practice of building, maintaining and improving support, skills and other resources to ensure the sustainability of an institution,” explains Moses.

This latest Kresge initiative follows the success of a five-year partnership with Inyathelo that helped five high-profile South African institutions - the University of the Witwatersrand (Wits); the University of Pretoria (UP); the University of the Western Cape (UWC); the Cape Peninsula University of Technology (CPUT) and the Children’s Hospital Trust - increase their private fund-raising revenue threefold. The four universities will receive additional funding over the next five years and will serve as mentors to the new group of institutions.

In April last year, Kresge announced a new commitment to South African higher education that builds on its efforts in the United States to improve university access and help students succeed academically. Their ‘Promoting access and success at South African universities’ programme will seek to strengthen pathways to and through universities, especially for students who are often unprepared for university study. Moses says enhancing the ability of universities in South Africa to graduate the next generation of knowledge workers, will make it possible for the country to compete more effectively in the global economy. “Access to higher education in South Africa has improved dramatically since the end of Apartheid. A doubling of enrolment since 1994 has, however, contributed to serious challenges, including under-prepared students and disappointing graduation rates. We are confident that our programme will help address some of these obstacles to success,” says Moses.

Kresge has already funded several efforts that support its interest in strengthening pathways to and through universities this year, including a grant to the University of the Free State to expand the South African Survey of Student Engagement, as well as funding to the University of Pretoria to support a conference in January, which will highlight opportunities to promote access and success at South African universities.

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