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From agricultural drought to trade tensions – Prof Bahta on securing the future of agriculture

15 August 2025 | Story Martinette Brits | Photo Stephen Collett

Prof Yonas Bahta, Professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of the Free State, delivered his inaugural lecture on the future of agricultural trade and food security, titled Can We Own the Future? The Ever-Changing Dynamics of Agricultural Trade and Food Security Amid Intensifying Agricultural Drought.

With the world hurtling towards a population of 9,7 billion by 2050 – and Africa set to make up more than a quarter of that – the question of whether we can ‘own the future’ has never been more urgent. In his inaugural lecture at the University of the Free State (UFS), Prof Yonas Bahta from the Department of Agricultural Economics warned that climate change, trade tensions, and deepening food insecurity are converging to create unprecedented risks for farmers, economies, and communities.

“We find ourselves at a pivotal moment in human history, characterised by the intersection of climate change, particularly agricultural drought, resource scarcity, geopolitical instability, and the current trade reciprocal tariff, all of which pose significant threats to the foundational structures of global food systems,” he said.

From vulnerability to agency

Prof Bahta highlighted the stark reality that the world population is projected to reach 9,7 billion by 2050, with Africa constituting 2,5 billion. “Despite this growth, the agricultural sector predominantly operates at a subsistence level, with diminishing resources available to farming communities, especially smallholder farmers who rely on agriculture as their primary source of employment and sustenance.”

In South Africa, climate change – particularly agricultural drought – is affecting both commercial and smallholder farmers, with cascading effects on food security, employment, and livelihoods. Coupled with disease outbreaks, these factors lead to reduced crop yields, supply shocks, and trade imbalances that ripple through the economy.

Food insecurity remains a critical concern, with approximately 15 million South African households experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity – a figure even higher (25,5%) among households engaged in agricultural activities. Prof Bahta emphasised that these challenges are compounded by “institutional barriers such as the current trade reciprocal tariff by the USA, limited access to credit, crop and livestock insurance, inadequate road infrastructure, and electricity shortages”.

Despite these challenges, Prof Bahta sees clear opportunities. He pointed to Africa, including South Africa’s extensive arable land; research and innovation have highlighted the benefits of integrating traditional techniques with modern approaches such as climate-smart agriculture and its membership of BRICS and other trading partners as levers for resilience and growth. “Securing the future is not about mere assertion but about the stewardship of markets, data, and people,” he said. By aligning trade policy, drought preparedness, and social protection within robust institutions, “the country can transition from vulnerability to agency, from passively observing the future to actively shaping it. In doing so, we may indeed assert with integrity that ‘We own the future’.”

About Prof Yonas Bahta

Prof Yonas Bahta is a Professor and NRF-rated researcher in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of the Free State. He joined the UFS as a researcher in 2014 and has supervised more than 42 postgraduate students (both MSc and PhD), of whom 29 have completed their studies (10 PhD and 19 MSc).

He holds a PhD (2007) and MSc (2004, with distinction) in Agricultural Economics from the UFS, and a BSc (1994) in Agricultural Economics from Haramaya University, Ethiopia. Prof Bahta serves on the editorial boards of several journals, acts as a reviewer and guest editor, and is a member of several national and international professional bodies.

His work has been recognised with an award from the African Growth and Development Policy Modelling Consortium (AGRODEP), and in 2024 he was rated among the top 2% of researchers globally by Elsevier.

News Archive

State of our campuses: UFS closes campuses until Friday 28 October 2016 to readjust academic programme

2016-10-15

UFS announces strategy for completion of the 2016 academic year

Agreement between UFS management and student leadership in relation to residences

After almost four weeks of student protests about fees at the University of the Free State (UFS) and the subsequent suspension of the academic programme and closing of campuses, the senior leadership announced on 14 October 2016 a strategy to ensure that students will be able to complete the 2016 academic year.

The university on 13 October 2016 announced that it will shut down its Bloemfontein and South Campuses until 28 October 2016 for crucial and complex arrangements to be put in place to readjust the academic calendar and ensure that all students can complete their studies. The senior leadership did, however, make it clear that the university will not be shutting down for the remainder of 2016.

No teaching and learning activities at undergraduate and honours level will be offered between 17 October and 28 October 2016. The university will re-start teaching and learning at undergraduate and honours level in the first week of November 2016.

However, teaching and learning will not take place in the classrooms during November 2016, but through a different mode of delivery that consists of a combination of printed and recorded lectures, study materials and learning aids that will be provided by the university and delivered through Blackboard. In this manner no attempts at disrupting the rest of the academic year will affect our students’ academic programme. Students, however, will sit for the exam on campus.

Students in residence accommodation can return to campus as from 29 October 2016 and it is recommended that students who do not have off-campus internet access return to campus in order to access study material to complete the academic year.A new timetable for exams is still being developed and will be communicated as soon as the arrangements have been finalised.

Faculties have been differently affected by the loss of teaching time. Some faculties like the Faculty of Law have completed their curriculum, while other faculties like the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences require more teaching time. Some faculties, like the Faculty of Health Sciences, cannot do teaching through alternative modes of delivery.

The needs of the different faculties have been taken into account for developing a rescue plan to complete the 2016 academic year.

The Faculty of Health Sciences will continue its classes and clinical rotations as normal for all three schools on the Bloemfontein Campus and in the relevant hospitals. All students registered in programmes in the Faculty of Health Sciences will stay in residences for the full period of their studies and exams. Final-year medical students will graduate in December 2016 as expected.
In the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, final-year students for the Certificate in the Theory of Accounting (CTA) will stay on campus during October through to December 2016 and their classes and tests will not change.
Arrangements for all other faculties and programmes are being prepared and within the next week, students and parents/guardians will receive communication about how curriculum content will be completed and when the final exams will take place.
The university is extending the academic year so that we can recuperate all the lost teaching and learning time. The qualifications conferred on the 2016 class will be of the same quality and standards as all UFS qualifications.

The UFS is and will remain a fundamentally contact teaching and learning education university. However, under the current circumstances faced not only by the UFS, but higher-education institutions across the country, the best way of ensuring the integrity of the academic programmes in most faculties is by using an alternative way of teaching and learning. Other South African universities have chosen the same approach to be able to complete the academic year.

Instead of students going to class, they will have content delivered to them where they are (library, computer labs, their own computers, etc.) through Blackboard and printed and electronic material. This is a different way of learning but students will be carefully guided and supported.

Faculties are currently preparing all the necessary materials and instructions to support student learning.Standards and quality will be the same as if students were attending classes. Some faculties require practical laboratory work as part of their curriculum. The exam timetable will be adapted for these students to be able to complete their practical work when the academic activities commences in November 2016. The relevant faculties will communicate the schedule of practical work directly to the students.

Students in their final year will complete their studies during 2016. It is possible that in some cases the graduation ceremony for these students will be in June 2017 instead of April 2017. This will not prejudice students with bursaries, or committed employment in law firms or other businesses. The university will provide the necessary academic transcripts as proof of the completion of the relevant qualifications. None of these changes will affect postgraduate students.

The university will maintain regular communication with students and parents/guardians to update them on the new exams timetable.Faculties will communicate directly with students about issues related to their programmes.

“One of the areas in which significant progress was made, is that we were able to agree on a basis for stability with student leaders. The student protests occurred during an important time in the university’s academic calendar and the readjustment of our academic programme has put tremendous pressure on academic and support services staff, and created anxieties for parents,” said Prof Nicky Morgan, Acting Rector of the UFS.

“The senior leadership restates its commitment to free education as well as its willingness to stand together with students and other public universities to impress on government the urgency to decide on a time frame for the roll-out of free higher education for the poor and missing middle. We will use the next two weeks to meet with the leadership of Universities South Africa to coordinate collective action in this regard. We will furthermore also roll out a series of activities to inform and educate students and the general public on different models and experiences of providing free higher education,” he said.

The strategy to readjust the 2016 academic year is applicable to students on the Bloemfontein and South Campuses.

Released by:
Lacea Loader (Director: Communication and Brand Management)
Telephone: +27 51 401 2584 | +27 83 645 2454
Email: news@ufs.ac.za | loaderl@ufs.ac.za
Fax: +27 51 444 6393

State of our campuses #15: UFS closes campuses until Friday 28 October 2016 to readjust academic programme

State of our campuses #14: All academic activities on UFS campuses remain suspended on 13 and 14 October 2016

State of our campuses #13: Availability of information about plans for remainder of UFS 2016 calendar year

State of our campuses #12: All academic activities at UFS campuses suspended for 11 and 12 October 2016

State of our campuses #11: Academic activities on UFS campuses continue

State of our campuses #10: Impact of non-completion of the 2016 academic year on UFS students

State of our campuses #9: Academic programme on all UFS campuses to resume on Monday 10 October 2016

State of our campuses #8: UFS extends vacation as from 28 September until 7 October 2016, 28 September 2016

State of our campuses #7: All three UFS campuses will be closed today, 27 September 2016.

State of our campuses #6: All UFS campuses reopen on Tuesday 27 September 2016

State of our campuses #5: UFS campuses to remain closed on Monday 26 September 2016

State of our campuses #4: Decisions about the UFS academic calendar

State of our campuses #3: UFS campuses closed until Friday 23 September 2016

State of our campuses #2: UFS Bloemfontein and South Campuses closed on Tuesday 20 September 2016 (19 September 2016)

State of our campuses #1: Academic activities suspended on UFS Bloemfontein Campus (19 September 2016)

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