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20 February 2025 Photo Supplied
Prof Johan Coetzee
Prof Johan Coetzee, Chairperson: Department of Economics and Finance, University of the Free State.

Opinion article by Prof Johan Coetzee (MCBI, CMBE), Chairperson: Department of Economics and Finance, University of the Free State.

The Minister of Finance has not had it easy in 2025 and the budget speech not read yesterday pays testament to this. Postponing the speech to 12 March is unprecedented, and is due to the Government of National Unity (GNU) not reaching consensus on a way forward to tabling a budget. It seems as if the fallout was based largely on a proposed 2% increase to VAT that was rejected by two parties. I personally would not have supported this proposal either as the tax burden shifts disproportionally to the poor.

My initial response of the postponement was frustration and disappointment. But I soon realised that it is the outcome of a new government dispensation made up of many voices, and many dissenting at that, becoming more important. In principle, this is good for the nation, but unfortunate for us expecting the budget to be read on the day. It also does not necessarily send a good message to the markets, with the rand weakening by more than 1% within an hour of the announcement. There could also be knock-on effects that a later tabling will have on service delivery and operations of government. After some reflection, however, I have concluded that on balance, the decision to postpone is not as problematic as many have made it out to be over the past 24 hours. Clearly there are many balls to juggle by Minister Enoch Godongwana and many added complexities that have both national and international dimensions.

Lead-up to the budget

Internationally the strong nationalist policy drive by US President Donald Trump has already shown that the ‘make America great again’ mantra is alive and well as reflected in the intentional actions taken against South Africa since his second term started in January. We will see how this plays out over the coming months, but my view is that South Africa as a nation needs to be more deliberate in its policy agenda. We are at an inflection point where we must reflect on who we are as a nation and where we want to be down the line. We cannot afford to rely on handouts from other nations. There is more opportunity to this situation than threat, but we need intentional leadership to exploit it.

My big concern in the lead-up to the budget speech was that the minister would not take a firm stand on fighting the culture of non-compliance within state entities which has invariably led to unsustainable levels of irregular expenditure. For the 2023/24 financial year, the Auditor-General of South Africa reported that irregular expenditure totalled almost R50 billion, up from just over R27 billion the previous year. To put this into perspective, irregular expenditure equals approximately 2.2% of total government spending for the 2023/24 fiscal year. This might not seem significant stated as a percentage, but it has basically doubled since the previous year, and every preceding year before that too. Moreover, irregular expenditure equates to approximately 20% of the 2023/24 social grants budget and just about equals the 2024 National Student Financial Aid Scheme allocation. This is clearly a management failure and nothing seems to have been done about it over the years. As a result, the problem is escalating at an alarming rate. It is quite astounding that accountability management is not more explicit as it is clearly a very unpopular political message to send. But at what cost?

South African economy is not growing

To make matters worse, the South African economy is not growing both enough and fast enough. The most recent real GDP growth figure showed a decrease of 0.3% in the third quarter from the second quarter of 2024. Since 1994, the period with the highest annual rate of growth was a three-year period from 2005 to 2007 where growth exceeded 5% for each respective year. This period preceded the global financial crisis and since then, growth has struggled to reach 3% annually, doing so on only two occasions barring the 4.7% in 2021 which was not a true reflection of reality given the low base of the preceding year amid the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a major concern for the Minister, because with economic growth comes increased tax revenues, which in turn capacitates better budget management. Very simply, the more people spend; the more businesses sell; the larger the profit outcomes; the larger the tax revenue collections. If the economy grows, the fiscus collects more tax revenues without explicitly increasing tax rates. This built-in cyclical dynamic is simply not happening and creates a serious constraint on the ability of the Minister to manage deficits going forward.

Further to this of course is that as deficits are run, all things remaining constant, public debt increases. The public-debt-to-GDP ratio for 2023/24 already exceeds 72% which is higher than the generally accepted benchmark of 60% and almost 2.6 times what it was in 2008 (27.8%). This has resulted in the average interest on public debt approximating R1.1 billion a day, equating to about 22% of total tax revenues, or almost 20% of total government spending respectively. To put it differently, for every R1 government spends, 20 cents is first channelled to pay the interest on the debt before any spending occurs on roads, education, infrastructure, social grants and the like. These are deeply concerning figures in an economy with already high levels of unemployment and inequality.

Might be beginning of something better

There is a leadership void that cannot be ignored anymore. It needs to be intentional and deliberate. The GNU provides the platform to exploit ‘the best that South Africa has to offer’ as it promotes a broad-based and more inclusive political structure and played itself out yesterday. I welcome this in principle, but my concern is that political in-fighting will prevail and perverse politicking will trump working together in the best interests of the South African people. Although the postponement could be interpreted negatively in terms of the GNU not being able to find common ground, I think it is rather a sign of more rigorous engagement and the enablement of a collaborative environment amongst parties in the decision-making structures of the state. Remember this day as it might be the beginning of something better than what we are used to. 

News Archive

Kovsie student and reigning Miss Lesotho en route to Miss World 2015
2015-11-03

 Relebohile Kobeli - the beauty queen of Lesotho

Relebohile Kobeli was crowned Miss Lesotho 2015 earlier this year, and is now en route to Miss World International 2015 in China to represent the mountainous Kingdom. The beauty pageant, which takes place between November and December, will see contestants from over 150 countries contending for the title.

The nineteen-year-old second-year Geography and Environmental Management student at the University of the Free State (UFS) also won Miss Lesotho in 2014. She holds other titles, such as Miss Outeniqua 2014, and First Princess Face of Lesotho 2013.

What would it mean to be the first from Lesotho to sit on the Miss World throne?

I believe that it would be a turning point for pageantry in Lesotho. We are one of the few countries that do not fully recognise pageants, and the value they add to the tourism industry. Winning the throne would be putting into practice the theory that we, as beauty queens in Lesotho, always practice what we preach.

Since beginning this Miss World contest, in what way have you reached out to your community through the Beauty with a Purpose project?

My Beauty with a Purpose project focuses mainly on introducing and helping start up sustainable projects in communities. I wanted to move away from giving people donations to giving them the skills to ensure their long-term livelihood.

What skill sets do you possess that are essential to succeeding as an international first queen?

I am a very creative individual who thinks on her feet. That is important for me because, when you are far away from home, should things go wrong, there's no room for panic. I am sociable and human-centered, I relate to different people, regardless of cultural differences, and, as an international queen, it is important to be appreciative of others’ way of life, regardless of how different it is are from your own.

Rolene Strauss, the current Miss World, stated her ambition to capitalise on promoting forgiveness, hope, and unity during her tenure. What are you hoping to achieve, given the chance as her successor?

I would definitely speak about self-reliance among young women and the youth at large. I come from a country where not everyone is lucky enough to get a job. In such cases, young men and women fall into crime, young women become victims of sexual abuse or prostitution, and, although one may argue that that is self-reliance, is it sustainable? Is it not escaping one fire to jump into another? It is important for me to represent every girl who has ever had a dream. I am spreading the message of possibilities when the world is yelling "Impossible!"

What has been the highlight of your term as Miss Lesotho?

My greatest highlight was finding myself through service to others. I discovered that the more I invest in myself, the more of me I can give and share.

The Miss Lesotho 2016 competition is around the corner, what words of wisdom would you like to share with hopefuls?

Pageantry is not all about pretty dresses and tiaras. It is hard work. Always be humble, and remember that, whatever the outcome, it is your life's journey.  You are destined for greatness. Don't deny yourself that privilege.

In your experience, what is the Kovsie feeling referred to in the maxim “Only a Kovsie knows the feeling”?

It is the desire to want to be great, the motivation to live to my full potential.

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