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18 June 2019 | Story Leonie Bolleurs | Photo Leonie Bolleurs
Dr Christine Engelbrecht from the Agricultural Research Council
Dr Christine Engelbrecht from the Agricultural Research Council presented the keynote lecture on climate dynamics, predicting that El Niños will double in frequency towards the end of the century.

The world will need nearly double the current food supply by 2050 to feed an ever-increasing world population. This is a mammoth, almost impossible task.

Building on knowledge

According to UFS Rector and Vice-Chancellor, Prof Francis Petersen, if we approach challenges such as these with scientific level-headedness, systematically build on knowledge and experience gained, and draw on similar inputs from other specialist fields, the seemingly impossible becomes possible.

“To what extent do we integrate our knowledge across sectors – within the university and outside the university; on the continent as well as globally?” he asked the 300-plus delegates, which included animal scientists, students, and various other role players in the livestock sector, at the 51st South African Society of Animal Science (SASAS) congress on the Bloemfontein Campus of the University of the Free State (UFS). 

Willingness to adapt to new strategies


The theme of this year’s congress was: Managing the ecological footprint of livestock through efficient production. The congress provided a platform for discussions on the impact of livestock production – bringing in elements of critical thinking, as well as the willingness to adopt new strategies. 

During the congress, workshops on topics such as silage, predation management, intensive sheep production, prickly-pear utilisation, and animal welfare provided delegates with the opportunity to discuss challenges faced by the South African livestock producer.

Dr Christine Engelbrecht (Meteorology) from the Agricultural Research Council presented the first keynote address, focusing on climate dynamics. 

“We have high-impact weather systems across Southern Africa. It is projected that strong El Niños are to double in frequency towards the end of the 21st century,” said Dr Engelbrecht. 

She further predicted temperature increases of between 4 and 7 degrees Celsius in the interior before the end of the century. Over the Free State, Northern Cape, and North-West Province, we can expect shorter frost seasons, significant increases in maximum temperatures for both summer and winter, as well as more frequent El Niño-induced droughts. 

Ecological footprint of food

Improved production outputs need to be achieved by using less land, water, and available energy, while ensuring that the degradation and pollution of natural resources are limited. A scientific approach would be a viable option to improve the efficiency of livestock production.

SASAS President, Prof Este van Marle-Köster from the University of Pretoria, pointed out that all food had an ecological impact.

Dr Frikkie Maré, Head of the Department of Agricultural Economics at the UFS, presented a keynote lecture on managing the footprint of beef through efficient production. Comparing the water footprint of different cattle breeds, his question was what could be done to reduce this. 

Animal welfare was introduced to the congress for the first time. Prof Cathy Dwyer from Scotland’s Rural College presented a session on, ‘Can animal welfare contribute to improved production efficiency?’

The oldest conception of animal welfare is the five freedoms adapted to the five welfare needs of animals, namely a suitable environment, a suitable diet, exhibiting normal behaviour patterns, being with or being apart from other animals, and protection from pain, injury, suffering, and disease. Studies demonstrate that animal welfare can be an important and effective part of production efficiency, and that animal welfare should be seen as an integral component of improving the sustainability of livestock. 

Prof HO de Waal from the Predation Management Centre at the UFS presented a session on the impact of predation on livestock production, with the tile: The need for coordinated predation management in South Africa – quo vadis? He said: “The current approach to predation management is fragmented and uncoordinated. Solutions for the management of human-wildlife conflict require a South African institutional memory. Most of the information on predation and the hunting of predators is held by specialist predator hunters and farmers. In a system of coordinated predation management, farmers and government are equal partners, each with specific responsibilities.”

News Archive

Fight against Ebola virus requires more research
2014-10-22

 

Dr Abdon Atangana
Photo: Ifa Tshishonge
Dr Abdon Atangana, a postdoctoral researcher in the Institute for Groundwater Studies at the University of the Free State (UFS), wrote an article related to the Ebola virus: Modelling the Ebola haemorrhagic fever with the beta-derivative: Deathly infection disease in West African countries.

“The filoviruses belong to a virus family named filoviridae. This virus can cause unembellished haemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman monkeys. In literature, only two members of this virus family have been mentioned, namely the Marburg virus and the Ebola virus. However, so far only five species of the Ebola virus have been identified, including:  Ivory Coast, Sudan, Zaire, Reston and Bundibugyo.

“Among these families, the Ebola virus is the only member of the Zaire Ebola virus species and also the most dangerous, being responsible for the largest number of outbreaks.

“Ebola is an unusual, but fatal virus that causes bleeding inside and outside the body. As the virus spreads through the body, it damages the immune system and organs. Ultimately, it causes the blood-clotting levels in cells to drop. This leads to severe, uncontrollable bleeding.

Since all physical problems can be modelled via mathematical equation, Dr Atangana aimed in his research (the paper was published in BioMed Research International with impact factor 2.701) to analyse the spread of this deadly disease using mathematical equations. We shall propose a model underpinning the spread of this disease in a given Sub-Saharan African country,” he said.

The mathematical equations are used to predict the future behaviour of the disease, especially the spread of the disease among the targeted population. These mathematical equations are called differential equation and are only using the concept of rate of change over time.

However, there is several definitions for derivative, and the choice of the derivative used for such a model is very important, because the more accurate the model, the better results will be obtained.  The classical derivative describes the change of rate, but it is an approximation of the real velocity of the object under study. The beta derivative is the modification of the classical derivative that takes into account the time scale and also has a new parameter that can be considered as the fractional order.  

“I have used the beta derivative to model the spread of the fatal disease called Ebola, which has killed many people in the West African countries, including Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia, since December 2013,” he said.

The constructed mathematical equations were called Atangana’s Beta Ebola System of Equations (ABESE). “We did the investigation of the stable endemic points and presented the Eigen-Values using the Jacobian method. The homotopy decomposition method was used to solve the resulted system of equations. The convergence of the method was presented and some numerical simulations were done for different values of beta.

“The simulations showed that our model is more realistic for all betas less than 0.5.  The model revealed that, if there were no recovery precaution for a given population in a West African country, the entire population of that country would all die in a very short period of time, even if the total number of the infected population is very small.  In simple terms, the prediction revealed a fast spread of the virus among the targeted population. These results can be used to educate and inform people about the rapid spread of the deadly disease,” he said.

The spread of Ebola among people only occurs through direct contact with the blood or body fluids of a person after symptoms have developed. Body fluid that may contain the Ebola virus includes saliva, mucus, vomit, faeces, sweat, tears, breast milk, urine and semen. Entry points include the nose, mouth, eyes, open wounds, cuts and abrasions. Note should be taken that contact with objects contaminated by the virus, particularly needles and syringes, may also transmit the infection.

“Based on the predictions in this paper, we are calling on more research regarding this disease; in particular, we are calling on researchers to pay attention to finding an efficient cure or more effective prevention, to reduce the risk of contamination,” Dr Atangana said.


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