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SA now experiencing half-year summers

12 October 2020 | Story Leonie Bolleurs | Photo Supplied

Although several international studies have used temperature metrics to statistically classify their seasonal divisions, a study in which Adriaan van der Walt was involved, would be the first known publication in a South African context using temperature as classification metric.

Gone are the days when we as South Africans would experience a three-month spring season, easing into summer, and then cooling off for three months before we hit winter.

Adriaan van der Walt, Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of the Free State (UFS), focuses his research on biometeorology (a specialist discipline exploring the role and climate change in physical and human environments) as well as climatology and geographic information systems.

He recently published an article: ‘Statistical classification of South African seasonal divisions on the basis of daily temperature data’ in the South African Journal of Science.

In this study, which Van der Walt undertook with Jennifer Fitchett, a colleague from the University of the Witwatersrand, data on daily maximum and minimum temperatures was collected from 35 meteorological stations of the South African Weather Service, covering the period between 1980 and 2015.

They went to great lengths to ensure that they had a complete set of data before presenting it to demonstrate seasonal brackets.

First for South Africa

Their statistical seasonal brackets indicate that South Africans now experience longer summers (from October to March), autumn in April and May, winter from June to August, and spring in September.

Although considerable work has been done using rainfall to determine seasonality in Southern Africa, Van der Walt believes that these methods did not work well as there are too many inconsistencies in this approach, as identified by Roffe et al. (2019, South African Geographical Journal). To make matters more complicated – as a semi-arid region, and with desert conditions along the west coast – some regions do not have enough rainfall to use as a classifier.

Temperature, on the other hand, worked well in this study. “Temperature, by contrast, is a continuous variable, and in Southern Africa has sufficient seasonal variation to allow for successful classification,” says Van der Walt.

He continues: “Although several international studies used temperature metrics to statistically classify their seasonal divisions, this study would be the first known publication in a South African context using temperature as classification metric.”

Van der Walt says what we understand as seasons largely relates to phenology – the appearance of blossoms in spring, the colouration and fall of leaves in autumn, and the migration of birds as a few examples. “These phenological shifts are more sensitive to temperature than other climatic variables.”

Seasonal brackets

According to Van der Walt, they believe that a clearly defined and communicated method should be used in defining seasons, rather than just assigning months to seasons.

“One of the most important arguments of our work is that one needs to critically consider breaks in seasons, rather than arbitrarily placing months into seasons, and so we welcome any alternate approaches,” he says.

A number of sectors apply the temperature-based division to their benefit. “For example, in the tourism sector it is becoming increasingly important to align advertising with the season most climatically suitable for tourism,” says Van der Walt.

Temperature-based division is also used to develop adaptive strategies to monitor seasonal changes in temperature under climate change. However, Van der Walt points out that each sector will have its own way of defining seasons. “Seasonal boundaries should nevertheless be clearly communicated with the logic behind them,” he says.

News Archive

UFS hones focus to nurture world-class research - Business Day

2006-02-10

Sue Blaine
THE University of the Free State plans to concentrate academic study in five areas to strengthen its status as a research institution, the university said yesterday.

The Bloemfontein-based university will focus on areas it classes as development (economics, health, literacy and other human activities) and social transformation — an analysis of how South African society is changing from a philosophical and political viewpoint.

The other three research areas are new technologies, water resources and security, and food production and security.

“It makes sense to concentrate the university’s human resources, infrastructure, financial resources and intellectual expertise,” said university rector and vice-chancellor Prof Frederick Fourie.

The move introduces a style of research that matches international trends.

Universities in Canada, Britain and Australia are setting up their research departments in this way.

In SA, the universities of Stellenbosch, the Witwatersrand, Cape Town and KwaZulu-Natal have embarked on similar strategies.

Fourie gave the example of his alma mater, the US’s Harvard University, whose Nanoscale Science and Engineering Centre is an example of “clustering” on a larger scale.

The centre is a collaboration with Harvard, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the University of California, Santa Barbara, the Museum of Science, Boston, and universities in the Netherlands, Switzerland and Japan.

Fourie said the modern research world was so diverse and complex that no university could cover all bases so it was better to establish areas of expertise that made it different from its peer institutions.

Having scientists and researchers work in teams meant certain issues could be researched and developed in a multidisciplinary manner. “I think it’s the only way in which any university can excel. This will help SA become world class in selected areas,” Fourie said.

It is in chemistry that the cluster model has already had its most visible results, with a slice of the university’s on-campus pharmacological testing company Farmovs, established in the 1980s, sold to the US’s Parexel International.

The company is one of the largest biopharmaceutical outsourcing organisations in the world, providing knowledge-based contract research, medical marketing and consulting services to the global pharmaceutical, biotechnology and medical device industries, according to Biospace, an internet-based company providing resources and information to the life science industry.

President Thabo Mbeki, in his state of the nation address last Friday, committed government to allocating more resources to research, development and innovation, and increasing the pool of young researchers in SA.

He said government would “continue to engage the leadership of our tertiary institutions focused on working with them to meet the nation’s expectations with regard to teaching and research”.

The university used to be home to several A-rated scientists, who are considered by a peer review, conducted by the National Research Foundation, to be world leaders in their fields, but had lost them to other institutions. Fourie hopes to lure them back, and with them postgraduate students and funding for their work.

“At universities where you get a star researcher they tend to attract people and funding; if they leave they take that with them,” he said.

Fourie said R50m would be spent on the project, with some already spent last year and the last disbursements to be made next year.

There is R10m in seed money to gather experts and improve equipment and infrastructure, and R17m has been invested in chemistry equipment and staff.

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