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12 October 2020 | Story Leonie Bolleurs | Photo Supplied
Adriaan van der Walt
Although several international studies have used temperature metrics to statistically classify their seasonal divisions, a study in which Adriaan van der Walt was involved, would be the first known publication in a South African context using temperature as classification metric.

Gone are the days when we as South Africans would experience a three-month spring season, easing into summer, and then cooling off for three months before we hit winter.

Adriaan van der Walt, Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of the Free State (UFS), focuses his research on biometeorology (a specialist discipline exploring the role and climate change in physical and human environments) as well as climatology and geographic information systems.

He recently published an article: ‘Statistical classification of South African seasonal divisions on the basis of daily temperature data’ in the South African Journal of Science.

In this study, which Van der Walt undertook with Jennifer Fitchett, a colleague from the University of the Witwatersrand, data on daily maximum and minimum temperatures was collected from 35 meteorological stations of the South African Weather Service, covering the period between 1980 and 2015.

They went to great lengths to ensure that they had a complete set of data before presenting it to demonstrate seasonal brackets.

First for South Africa

Their statistical seasonal brackets indicate that South Africans now experience longer summers (from October to March), autumn in April and May, winter from June to August, and spring in September.

Although considerable work has been done using rainfall to determine seasonality in Southern Africa, Van der Walt believes that these methods did not work well as there are too many inconsistencies in this approach, as identified by Roffe et al. (2019, South African Geographical Journal). To make matters more complicated – as a semi-arid region, and with desert conditions along the west coast – some regions do not have enough rainfall to use as a classifier.

Temperature, on the other hand, worked well in this study. “Temperature, by contrast, is a continuous variable, and in Southern Africa has sufficient seasonal variation to allow for successful classification,” says Van der Walt.

He continues: “Although several international studies used temperature metrics to statistically classify their seasonal divisions, this study would be the first known publication in a South African context using temperature as classification metric.”

Van der Walt says what we understand as seasons largely relates to phenology – the appearance of blossoms in spring, the colouration and fall of leaves in autumn, and the migration of birds as a few examples. “These phenological shifts are more sensitive to temperature than other climatic variables.”

Seasonal brackets

According to Van der Walt, they believe that a clearly defined and communicated method should be used in defining seasons, rather than just assigning months to seasons.

“One of the most important arguments of our work is that one needs to critically consider breaks in seasons, rather than arbitrarily placing months into seasons, and so we welcome any alternate approaches,” he says.

A number of sectors apply the temperature-based division to their benefit. “For example, in the tourism sector it is becoming increasingly important to align advertising with the season most climatically suitable for tourism,” says Van der Walt.

Temperature-based division is also used to develop adaptive strategies to monitor seasonal changes in temperature under climate change. However, Van der Walt points out that each sector will have its own way of defining seasons. “Seasonal boundaries should nevertheless be clearly communicated with the logic behind them,” he says.

News Archive

“To forgive is not an obligation. It’s a choice.” – Prof Minow during Reconciliation Lecture
2014-03-05

“To forgive is not an obligation. It’s a choice.” – Prof Minow during the Third Annual Reconciliation Lecture entitled Forgiveness, Law and Justice.
Photo: Johan Roux

No one could have anticipated the atmosphere in which Prof Martha Minow would visit the Bloemfontein Campus. And no one could have predicted how apt the timing of her message would be. As this formidable Dean of Harvard University’s Law School stepped behind the podium, a latent tension edged through the crowded audience.

“The issue of getting along after conflict is urgent.”

With these few words, Prof Minow exposed the essence of not only her lecture, but also the central concern of the entire university community.

As an expert on issues surrounding racial justice, Prof Minow has worked across the globe in post-conflict societies. How can we prevent atrocities from happening? she asked. Her answer was an honest, “I don’t know.” What she is certain of, on the other hand, is that the usual practice of either silence or retribution does not work. “I think that silence produces rage – understandably – and retribution produces the cycle of violence. Rather than ignoring what happens, rather than retribution, it would be good to reach for something more.” This is where reconciliation comes in.

Prof Minow put forward the idea that forgiveness should accompany reconciliation efforts. She defined forgiveness as a conscious, deliberate decision to forego rightful grounds of resentment towards those who have committed a wrong. “To forgive then, in this definition, is not an obligation. It’s a choice. And it’s held by the one who was harmed,” she explained.

Letting go of resentment cannot be forced – not even by the law. What the law can do, though, is either to encourage or discourage forgiveness. Prof Minow showed how the law can construct adversarial processes that render forgiveness less likely, when indeed its intention was the opposite. “Or, law can give people chances to meet together in spaces where they may apologise and they may forgive,” she continued. This point introduced some surprising revelations about our Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC).

Indeed, studies do report ambivalence, disappointment and mixed views about the TRC. Whatever our views are on its success, Prof Minow reported that people across the world wonder how South African did it. “It may not work entirely inside the country; outside the country it’s had a huge effect. It’s a touchstone for transitional justice.”

The TRC “seems to have coincided with, and maybe contributed to, the relatively peaceful political transition to democracy that is, frankly, an absolute miracle.” What came as a surprise to many is this: the fact that the TRC has affected transitional justice efforts in forty jurisdictions, including Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Cambodia and Liberia. It has even inspired the creation of a TRC in Greensborough, North Carolina, in the United States.

There are no blueprints for solving conflict, though. “But the possibility of something other than criminal trials, something other than war, something other than silence – that’s why the TRC, I think, has been such an exemplar to the world,” she commended.

Court decision cannot rebuild a society, though. Only individuals can forgive. Only individuals can start with purposeful, daily decisions to forgive and forge a common future. Forgiveness is rather like kindness, she suggested. It’s a resource without limits. It’s not scarce like water or money. It’s within our reach. But if it’s forced, it’s not forgiveness.

“It is good,” Prof Minow warned, “to be cautious about the use of law to deliberately shape or manipulate the feelings of any individual. But it is no less important to admit that law does affect human beings, not just in its results, but in its process.” And then we must take responsibility for how we use that law.

“A government can judge, but only people can forgive.” As Prof Minow’s words lingered, the air suddenly seemed a bit more buoyant.

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