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ARU pioneering mountain range-expanding project

26 July 2021 | Story Nonsindiso Qwabe | Photo Nonsindiso Qwabe

ARU Read more web — On top of the Drakensberg. The ARU and Witsieshoek Mountain Lodge research team are, from the left: Grant Martin, Dr Ralph Clark, Jan van Niekerk, Prof Aliza le Roux, Prof Peter Taylor, and Dr Sandy Steenhuisen.

All mountains around the world have native and non-native species that are expanding their ranges quite dramatically; however, little research has been conducted towards understanding the long-term redistribution of species and the effects of global change on biodiversity.

The Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) on the University of the Free State Qwaqwa Campus – as part of the Mountain Invasion Research Network – has secured a two-year EU Horizon 2020 project under the Department of Science and Innovation, which will be looking at the mechanisms underlying the success and impact of range-expanding species on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.

On Monday 19 July 2021, the ARU took a few of its researchers on a scenic helicopter ride to the summit of the Drakensberg for an alpine field-experiment site inspection of the Mont-aux-Sources peak, one of the highest sections of the Drakensberg range. This site has been identified for the project which the research unit will be leading on mountain research.

ARU Director, Dr Ralph Clark, said the project would explore the effects of global change, biological invasions (when species invade new geographic regions), as well as climate and land-use change. He said experiments were needed to explore the various possibilities and to test the extent to which species respond to experimental treatments. The project would therefore be conducting experiments for two years using open-top chambers – causing an increase in temperature of 3 or 4 degrees to what you find naturally – on plant species from lower down to the top of the mountain, to see how they function. “This will give us an idea of whether they will be able to survive in global warming scenarios. If temperatures get warmer, we might start seeing a lot of plants up here that we wouldn’t otherwise find here.”

Dr Clark said little is known about the long-term monitoring of species distribution and the effects of global change. Implementing the project in the Maloti-Drakensberg alpine area will therefore put the area in the global mountain research arena. The elevational gradient in the Maloti-Drakensberg Mountains provides space to explore the key processes underlying the variation in species elevation with climate change. “One of the things we don’t know much about are alpine systems. We are hoping to establish a long-term alpine research site and try to add as many studies as we can. The more science we can bring up here, the more we can know about mountain life. What happens on mountains has a lot of impact on social dynamics.

“This project is looking to see what is driving range expansion. Every mountain has its own context. In the Swiss alpine, fires are not a big factor, but fires are one of the biggest factors on our mountains. Some of our native and non-native species are therefore fire-driven, so as fire increases, you might have them spreading faster.”

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News Archive

Harvard couple to present lectures on Biostatistics and Mathematics at the UFS

2015-12-07

Professor Donald Rubin

Prof Donald Rubin (John L. Loeb Professor of Statistics at Harvard University) and Elizabeth Zell (MStat - mathematical statistician in the Division of Bacterial Diseases) will visit the University of the Free State (UFS) where they will present lectures on their respective work.

Over his prestigious academic career, Prof Don Rubin’s 400 publications and 13 books have earned him around 180 000 citations at an h-index of 113. He is one of the most cited statisticians/mathematicians/economists/psychologists in the world over the last 10 -15 years. He has supervised 35 PhD candidates as sole-supervisor, 17 more as co-supervisor, with a further eight in the pipeline.

Prof Rubin who will meet with UFS academics in the Department of Mathematics and Actuarial Sciences will also deliver a lecture: Rerandomisation to improve covariate balance in experiments.

Randomised experiments are the “gold standard” for estimating causal effects, yet in practice, chance imbalances often exist in covariate distributions between treatment groups. If covariate data are available before units are exposed to treatments, these chance imbalances can be mitigated by first checking covariate balance before the physical experiment takes place. Provided a precise definition of imbalance has been specified in advance, unbalanced randomisations can be discarded, followed by a rerandomisation. This process can continue until a randomisation yielding balance according to the definition is achieved. By improving covariate balance, rerandomisation provides more precise and trustworthy estimates of treatment effects.

Prof Rubin received an honorary professorship from the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences at the UFS.

Elizabeth Zell

The lecture will take place on:
Date: Tuesday 8 December 2015
Time: 16:00
Venue: Albert Wessels Auditorium, Bloemfontein Campus

Zell earned her Master’s degree in Statistics at North Carolina State University, and for more than two decades, was an active bio-statistical researcher in various offices of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Since 2013, she has been the Principal Statistician and President of Stat-Epi Associates, Inc. Her 150+ publications have earned her 14 500 citations at an h-index of over 50. She is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association, and, in 2010, she received the Statistics Section Government Award for outstanding contributions to statistics and public health by the American Public Health Association. During her career at the CDC, she earned more than 20 CDC research awards and honours.

She will deliver two lectures at the UFS. The first is entitled A Potential Outcomes Approach to Documenting the Public Health Impact of the Introduction of PCV13 for the Prevention of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease. The topic of her second lecture is: Assessing the Effectiveness of Intrapartum Antibiotic Prophylaxis for Prevention of Early-Onset Group B Streptococcus Disease through Propensity Score Design

Elizabeth’s lectures will take place on:
Date: Wednesday 9 December 2015
Time: 10:45 and 13:00
Venue: West Block 111, Bloemfontein Campus

For more information, please contact Dr Michael von Maltitz at VMaltitzMJ@ufs.ac.za.

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