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20 April 2022 | Story Dr Olivia Kunguma | Photo Supplied
Dr-Olivia-Kunguma
Dr Olivia Kunguma is Lecturer in Strategic Disaster Management, Legal and Institutional Arrangements, and Management of Media Relations and Strategic Communication in the Disaster Management Training and Education Centre for Africa at the University of the Free State (UFS).

Opinion article by Dr Olivia Kunguma, Disaster Management Training and Education Centre for Africa, University of the Free State.
For more than four days, the eastern side of South Africa experienced devastating heavy rainfall, with KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) being hit the hardest. The persistent rains triggered flooding and mudslides. Several compounding impacts of the flooding and mudslides were recorded. The impact includes, but is not limited to, the death of more than 440 people; damage to infrastructure (telecommunication towers, roads, bridges, homes, power lines, etc.); car accidents; business and school closures; and missing people. Most disasters or incidents entail a potentially compounding process where one event leads to another. The stated hazards and impacts also led to a rise in desperate and disgruntled citizens who started protesting and looting. The civil unrest is attributed to the lack of services, such as access to water and electricity.

An incident of this magnitude requires the intervention of disaster management services, whose primary role is to coordinate relevant stakeholders to respond to the situation (Kunguma, 2022). The South African Disaster Management Act, 57 of 2002 (DMA) (as amended, Act 16 of 2015) (Republic of South Africa, 2002), used to manage and coordinate disaster management, mandates the disaster management centres to perform certain functions. One important function to note is the continuous coordination of multiple sectors and disciplines by planning and implementing measures aimed at risk reduction, rapid response, and post-disaster recovery and rehabilitation. 

The DMA is also used to declare certain incidents as disasters. Disasters can be declared in local, provincial, or national spheres of government. Since the flooding mostly affected KZN, there were appeals to declare the event a provincial disaster. The KZN Premier and the Minister of Cooperative Governance (CoGTA) and Traditional Affairs announced at press conferences (eNCA, 2022) that the event would be declared a disaster. The flooding and mudslides were classified as disastrous according to Section 23 of the DMA. This section prescribes that the National Disaster Management Centre must determine whether the event should be regarded as a disaster in terms of the DMA. The NDMC assesses the magnitude and severity of the event and then classify it as a local, provincial, or national disaster. On 13 April, Dr Mmaphaka Tau, the Head of the National Disaster Management Centre, declared the KZN floods a provincial disaster (CoGTA, 2022). A provincial disaster means that the event has affected more than one municipality, enabling the province to deal with the event effectively. 

The declaration of a disaster means that

• available resources such as facilities, vehicles, and funding are released; 
• personnel of the state organ are released to render emergency services; 
• the affected population is evacuated to temporary shelters;
• movement is regulated;
• information is disseminated; 
• temporary lines of communication are maintained or installed; and
• alcohol is suspended or limited in disaster-stricken areas.
Important to note is that the DMA does not apply to an incident that can be dealt with effectively in terms of contingency arrangements or other legislation that can address the consequences of the risk.

Flood relief efforts

The multidisciplinary and multisectoral nature of disaster management has led to several political stakeholders visiting the affected areas to assess the flooding in KZN. This included visits from the Mayor, Premier, Minister of Police, CoGTA Minister, and the President of South Africa. All the disaster management centres in the province have been activated to attend to the disaster. The emergency numbers of the centres were published on Twitter by the Presidency (PresidencyZA, 2022) and other government departments. The centres’ efforts include, but are not limited to, coordinating response; observing and monitoring weather information issued by authorities; disseminating early warning; issuing relief supplies such as blankets; continuing to assess the damage; evacuating the affected to places of safety (for example, all the community halls have been opened for shelter); and clearing up the damage. Stakeholders such as the South African Police Service (SAPS), Gift of the Givers, the South African Social Security Agency (SASSA), and the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) were coordinated by CoGTA (Disaster Management) to provide their services. At this point, the distribution of relief should be based on vulnerability assessments, with no political interference.

Determining the root causes 

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) predicted the expected heavy rainfall in time. The GFS weather forecast model of the United States of America has also predicted severe rainfall along the KZN coast since last week. There was a severe cut-off low system, a common kind of weather system that does not occur regularly but can occur often. In a cut-off low system, the low pressure causes air to rise, and when it does, it reaches a condensation level that forms clouds. When the cut-off low system came down along the coast, another system developed at a high altitude and combined with it, making it more intense. What was unusual, was that the cut-off low became stationary or ‘stalled’ over the KZN coast. Later, the cut-off low started turning more to the southeast. The cut-off low was then reclassified as a tropical cyclone or subtropical depression, named ‘ISSA’. 

In addition, the lack of infrastructure development in the coastal area could also be the cause of the flooding and mudslides. For example, the Isipingo River (Map of Isipingo River, 2022) was channelised with concrete embankments and confined in a narrow space, crossing the N2 in two places, without proper planning of water levees when building the N2 highway. When the river is flooded, the road would turn into a river. This kind of flooding also happened in 2019, so one would have expected the local government to have addressed this matter and that they would have done something about it. The water spills onto the road, as previous heavy seas have blocked the mouth of the river, and only a strong momentum of the river flow can break through the built-up sand. 

The flooding in residential areas such as Kloof and Hillcrest is due to the development of complexes that take up the natural land space where grass or trees would have allowed the water to penetrate the topsoil easily. In complexes, more than 50% of the area is covered with pavements and solid roofs that concentrate the run-off water, which drains into a channel not designed for that amount of water. The sudden fast-flowing water then quickly erodes the soil. Many places on the sides of the roads have concrete embankments, while other parts in between are without embankments. These open parts are where the water broke through, and landslides occurred on the various roads. These damages can also be attributed to developments on the top of the hills. “The town planners should not permit new complexes covering 70% of the area without considering redevelopment of water run-off and drainage management,” said Prof Sue Walker, an agricultural meteorologist at the University of the Free State, and a principal researcher at the Agricultural Research Council. 

Ms Nonala Ndlovu, the KZN CoGTA spokesperson, shared with eNCA News the possible causes of the flooding. The flooding is attributed to the poor drainage systems, exacerbated by littering in the communities. She, however, indicated that the non-stop rain was unprecedented and that even if the drainage systems were well serviced, it would still not be able to handle the high volume of water. She added that buildings in low-lying areas could not handle the influx of water (eNCA, 2022).

Flood recovery and future prevention

Investment in disaster risk reduction (DRR) efforts is needed more than disaster response efforts. Although the occurrence of heavy rain was predicted in time, the damage it caused showed that this timely prediction was ineffectual. Systematic approaches are needed to prepare for, prevent, and mitigate the frequency or severity of losses and damage caused by flooding. Surely, attention needs to be paid to research-informed town planning, building codes, land zoning, public awareness, flood legislation, and flood early warning systems, to name a few. 

Since disaster management has shown that it plays a leading and active role in responding to disasters, it also needs to play a leading role in reducing the risks. The KZN floods have exposed significant socio-economic and environmental vulnerabilities that require immediate attention if effective risk reduction is to be achieved.

UFS-DIMTEC is requesting donations of non-food items for the victims of the the KZN flood disaster. To donate, please contact Dr Tlou Raphela on +27 72 108 4987 or RaphelaTD@ufs.ac.za 

News Archive

Media: Sunday Times
2006-05-20

Sunday Times, 4 June 2006

True leadership may mean admitting disunity
 

In this edited extract from the inaugural King Moshoeshoe Memorial Lecture at the University of the Free State, Professor Njabulo S Ndebele explores the leadership challenges facing South Africa

RECENT events have created a sense that we are undergoing a serious crisis of leadership in our new democracy. An increasing number of highly intelligent, sensitive and committed South Africans, across class, racial and cultural spectrums, confess to feeling uncertain and vulnerable as never before since 1994.

When indomitable optimists confess to having a sense of things unhinging, the misery of anxiety spreads. We have the sense that events are spiralling out of control and that no one among the leadership of the country seems to have a definitive handle on things.

There can be nothing more debilitating than a generalised and undefined sense of anxiety in the body politic. It breeds conspiracies and fear.

There is an impression that a very complex society has developed, in the last few years, a rather simple, centralised governance mechanism in the hope that delivery can be better and more quickly driven. The complexity of governance then gets located within a single structure of authority rather than in the devolved structures envisaged in the Constitution, which should interact with one another continuously, and in response to their specific settings, to achieve defined goals. Collapse in a single structure of authority, because there is no robust backup, can be catastrophic.

The autonomy of devolved structures presents itself as an impediment only when visionary cohesion collapses. Where such cohesion is strong, the impediment is only illusory, particularly when it encourages healthy competition, for example, among the provinces, or where a province develops a character that is not necessarily autonomous politically but rather distinctive and a special source of regional pride. Such competition brings vibrancy to the country. It does not necessarily challenge the centre.

Devolved autonomy is vital in the interests of sustainable governance. The failure of various structures to actualise their constitutionally defined roles should not be attributed to the failure of the prescribed governance mechanism. It is too early to say that what we have has not worked. The only viable corrective will be in our ability to be robust in identifying the problems and dealing with them concertedly.

We have never had social cohesion in South Africa — certainly not since the Natives’ Land Act of 1913. What we definitely have had over the decades is a mobilising vision. Could it be that the mobilising vision, mistaken for social cohesion, is cracking under the weight of the reality and extent of social reconstruction, and that the legitimate framework for debating these problems is collapsing? If that is so, are we witnessing a cumulative failure of leadership?

I am making a descriptive rather than an evaluative inquiry. I do not believe that there is any single entity to be blamed. It is simply that we may be a country in search of another line of approach. What will it be?

I would like to suggest two avenues of approach — an inclusive model and a counter-intuitive model of leadership.

In an inclusive approach, leadership is exercised not only by those who have been put in some position of power to steer an organisation or institution. Leadership is what all of us do when we express, sincerely, our deepest feelings and thoughts; when we do our work, whatever it is, with passion and integrity.

Counter-intuitive leadership lies in the ability of leaders to read a problematic situation, assess probable outcomes and then recognise that those outcomes will only compound the problem. Genuine leadership, in this sense, requires going against probability in seeking unexpected outcomes. That’s what happened when we avoided a civil war and ended up with an “unexpected” democracy.

Right now, we may very well hear desperate calls for unity, when the counter-intuitive imperative would be to acknowledge disunity. A declaration of unity where it manifestly does not appear to exist will fail to reassure.

Many within the “broad alliance” might have the view that the mobilising vision of old may have transformed into a strategy of executive steering with a disposition towards an expectation of compliance. No matter how compelling the reasons for that tendency, it may be seen as part of a cumulative process in which popular notions of democratic governance are apparently undermined and devalued; and where public uncertainty in the midst of seeming crisis induces fear which could freeze public thinking at a time when more voices ought to be heard.

Could it be that part of the problem is that we are unable to deal with the notion of opposition? We are horrified that any of us could be seen to have become “the opposition”. The word has been demonised. In reality, it is time we began to anticipate the arrival of a moment when there is no longer a single, overwhelmingly dominant political force as is currently the case. Such is the course of history. The measure of the maturity of the current political environment will be in how it can create conditions that anticipate that moment rather than seek to prevent it. We see here once more the essential creativity of the counter-intuitive imperative.

This is the formidable challenge of a popular post-apartheid political movement. Can it conceptually anticipate a future when it is no longer overwhelmingly in control, in the form in which it is currently, and resist, counter-intuitively, the temptation to prevent such an eventuality? Successfully resisting such an option would enable its current vision and its ultimate legacy to our country to manifest in different articulations, which then contend for social influence. In this way, the vision never really dies; it simply evolves into higher, more complex forms of itself. Consider the metaphor of flying ants replicating the ant community by establishing new ones.

We may certainly experience the meaning of comradeship differently, where we will now have “comrades on the other side”.

Any political movement that imagines itself as a perpetual entity should look at the compelling evidence of history. Few movements have survived those defining moments when they should have been more elastic, and that because they were not, did not live to see the next day.

I believe we may have reached a moment not fundamentally different from the sobering, yet uplifting and vision-making, nation-building realities that led to Kempton Park in the early ’90s. The difference between then and now is that the black majority is not facing white compatriots across the negotiating table. Rather, it is facing itself: perhaps really for the first time since 1994. Could we apply to ourselves the same degree of inventiveness and rigorous negotiation we displayed leading up to the adoption or our Constitution?

This is not a time for repeating old platitudes. It is the time, once more, for vision.

In the total scheme of things, the outcome could be as disastrous as it could be formative and uplifting, setting in place the conditions for a true renaissance that could be sustained for generations to come.

Ndebele is Vice-Chancellor of the University of Cape Town and author of the novel The Cry of Winnie Mandela

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