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13 May 2024 | Story Carmenita Redcliffe-Paul
Global Citizen

The University of the Free State (UFS) and the South African Chamber of Commerce United Kingdom (SACC UK) are pleased to present a Global Citizen Series conversation, Exploring Scenarios: South Africa’s Democracy in the face of the next general elections, from the perspective of Clem Sunter, international best-selling author, futurologist, and scenario planner. 

As part of the Global Citizen Webinar Series, international scenario planner and futurologist, Clem Sunter, will join UFS Vice-Chancellor and Principal, Prof Francis Petersen, and SACC UK Chairperson, Sharon Constançon, for a conversation that answers the question – What does the future hold for South Africa’s democracy in the face of the upcoming general elections?

Thirty years ago, the majority of South Africans won the right to vote for the first time, leading to South Africa’s first democratic elections in 1994. Join us for a conversation on 20 May 2024 as we explore scenarios depicted by Clem Sunter ahead of South Africa’s seventh general elections scheduled for 29 May 2024.

Join the Global conversation for Global Citizens

Date:  Monday, 20 May 2024
SA time: 15:00-16:00 / UK time: 14:00-15:00
The livestream link will be shared with those who RSVP
Enquiries: Tebello Leputla - leputlatb@ufs.ac.za +27 51 401 9199

About Clem Sunter

Clem Sunter, born in Suffolk England on 8 August 1944, gained his education at Winchester College. Before joining Charter Consolidated as a management trainee in 1966, he went to Oxford where he read politics, philosophy, and economics.

He moved to Lusaka in Zambia to work for the Anglo-American Corporation Central Africa in 1971. He then transferred to the head office of the Anglo-American Corporation of South Africa in Johannesburg in 1973. He spent most of his succeeding career in the Gold and Uranium Division, where he served as chairman and CEO from 1990 to 1996. During this time, Anglo-American was the largest producer of gold in the world. Until recently he was chairman of the Anglo-American Chairman’s Fund, which was – as stated in a recent survey – the primary corporate social responsibility fund in South Africa. Read more about Clem Sunter.

News Archive

Fight against Ebola virus requires more research
2014-10-22

 

Dr Abdon Atangana
Photo: Ifa Tshishonge
Dr Abdon Atangana, a postdoctoral researcher in the Institute for Groundwater Studies at the University of the Free State (UFS), wrote an article related to the Ebola virus: Modelling the Ebola haemorrhagic fever with the beta-derivative: Deathly infection disease in West African countries.

“The filoviruses belong to a virus family named filoviridae. This virus can cause unembellished haemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman monkeys. In literature, only two members of this virus family have been mentioned, namely the Marburg virus and the Ebola virus. However, so far only five species of the Ebola virus have been identified, including:  Ivory Coast, Sudan, Zaire, Reston and Bundibugyo.

“Among these families, the Ebola virus is the only member of the Zaire Ebola virus species and also the most dangerous, being responsible for the largest number of outbreaks.

“Ebola is an unusual, but fatal virus that causes bleeding inside and outside the body. As the virus spreads through the body, it damages the immune system and organs. Ultimately, it causes the blood-clotting levels in cells to drop. This leads to severe, uncontrollable bleeding.

Since all physical problems can be modelled via mathematical equation, Dr Atangana aimed in his research (the paper was published in BioMed Research International with impact factor 2.701) to analyse the spread of this deadly disease using mathematical equations. We shall propose a model underpinning the spread of this disease in a given Sub-Saharan African country,” he said.

The mathematical equations are used to predict the future behaviour of the disease, especially the spread of the disease among the targeted population. These mathematical equations are called differential equation and are only using the concept of rate of change over time.

However, there is several definitions for derivative, and the choice of the derivative used for such a model is very important, because the more accurate the model, the better results will be obtained.  The classical derivative describes the change of rate, but it is an approximation of the real velocity of the object under study. The beta derivative is the modification of the classical derivative that takes into account the time scale and also has a new parameter that can be considered as the fractional order.  

“I have used the beta derivative to model the spread of the fatal disease called Ebola, which has killed many people in the West African countries, including Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia, since December 2013,” he said.

The constructed mathematical equations were called Atangana’s Beta Ebola System of Equations (ABESE). “We did the investigation of the stable endemic points and presented the Eigen-Values using the Jacobian method. The homotopy decomposition method was used to solve the resulted system of equations. The convergence of the method was presented and some numerical simulations were done for different values of beta.

“The simulations showed that our model is more realistic for all betas less than 0.5.  The model revealed that, if there were no recovery precaution for a given population in a West African country, the entire population of that country would all die in a very short period of time, even if the total number of the infected population is very small.  In simple terms, the prediction revealed a fast spread of the virus among the targeted population. These results can be used to educate and inform people about the rapid spread of the deadly disease,” he said.

The spread of Ebola among people only occurs through direct contact with the blood or body fluids of a person after symptoms have developed. Body fluid that may contain the Ebola virus includes saliva, mucus, vomit, faeces, sweat, tears, breast milk, urine and semen. Entry points include the nose, mouth, eyes, open wounds, cuts and abrasions. Note should be taken that contact with objects contaminated by the virus, particularly needles and syringes, may also transmit the infection.

“Based on the predictions in this paper, we are calling on more research regarding this disease; in particular, we are calling on researchers to pay attention to finding an efficient cure or more effective prevention, to reduce the risk of contamination,” Dr Atangana said.


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