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10 May 2024 | Story Leonie Bolleurs | Photo supplied
Maureen Maisiri - Keynote Speaker PhD Candidate UFS
Delivering the keynote address at the first PhD Colloquium in Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaption, Maureen Maisiri said that it is important to stop taking approaches that do not include people affected by disasters and climate change.

In the midst of South Africa's complex socioeconomic challenges, including poverty, food insecurity, and environmental degradation, a study tiled: Nature-based solutions practices: implications on farm performance, sustainable environment, poverty reduction and food security among South African households? explores the potential of nature-based solutions (NBS) to address these pressing issues. Focused on disaster risk management and climate change adaptation, this study examines the adoption of NBS and its impact on environmental sustainability, agricultural productivity, and community resilience. Collins Okolie aims to offer valuable insights for policy makers, farmers, and communities by investigating the viability of NBS as a strategy for mitigating disaster risk and managing climate change. His work emphasises the importance of raising awareness about NBS and its transformative potential in enhancing farm performance, food security, and poverty reduction.

This study was one of a number of studies discussed during the first three-day PhD Colloquium in Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation hosted by the Disaster Management Training and Education Centre for Africa (DiMTEC) at the University of the Free State (UFS).

Becoming a centre of excellence

According to Dr Olivia Kunguma, Lecturer in DiMTEC who acted as chair, the colloquium was inspired by DiMTEC’s vision to become a centre of excellence. It aimed to support PhD candidates and find solutions and recommendations for the increasing incidents and declared disasters in Africa. She added that the colloquium was also the centre’s way of contributing to the achievement of global targets, such as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 priorities, the Paris Climate Change Agreement of 2015, and the Sustainable Development Goals.

Among the more than 80 delegates who attended the colloquium were key stakeholders in disaster management, including representatives from the National Disaster Management Centre and the Gauteng Provincial Disaster Management Centre, in addition to the PhD candidates. The event also received support from UFS research structures, including the Directorate Research Development represented by its Director, Dr Glen Taylor, and the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, represented by the Dean, Prof Paul Oberholster. External stakeholders in attendance included Counsellor Lulama Titi-Odili, the Deputy Mayor of the Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality, and Khotso Tsotsotso, the acting Head of the Old Mutual Foundation. The event was also sponsored by the Old Mutual Foundation, the Gauteng Provincial Disaster Management Centre, and the National Disaster Management Centre. “Having the Old Mutual Foundation as the primary sponsor is exciting for the disaster management fraternity, as it will see insurance companies take a growing interest in disaster risk management, resilience building, and climate change adaptation,” said Dr Kunguma.

Dr Kunguma pointed out the excitement and productive engagement between the audience and the PhD candidates as a particular highlight of the event. She emphasised the rigorous and scientific feedback received by the candidates, allowing them to reflect on their research motivation, perspectives, and future implications. The event provided an invaluable opportunity for PhD candidates to receive practical, social, and scientific feedback from both research experts and industry professionals. Dr Kunguma remarked, “The feedback and engagements have improved their work, and sharpened their presentation skills and confidence in their work and in themselves.”

Additionally, the initiative provoked praise from the Deputy Mayor, who underlined her role in advocating for increased funding for disaster management. Counsellor Titi-Odili stressed the importance of budgeting sufficiently for disasters. She acknowledged that disasters often originate at the local level and advocated for adjustments in the disaster declaration process. She also proposed the involvement of interns or graduates in government disaster management efforts.

Jurgens Dyssel from the National Disaster Management Centre also provided his input on the value of this initiative. He indicated that such a platform brings new knowledge that should be aligned with industry needs for translation into community impact. He suggested that the colloquium be aligned with the National Disaster Management Research Agenda, a repository for all research in disaster and climate studies.

Tshepo Motlhale, Chief Director of the Gauteng Provincial Disaster Management Centre, added that the colloquium is an innovative platform for diversifying all aspects of interventions and creating a space to enhance partnerships and collaborations to come up with solutions.

Blended systematic and sustainable solutions

Giving a voice to the PhD candidates was Maureen Maisiri, who was also appointed as the keynote speaker for this event. According to her, there is a need to create blended systematic and sustainable solutions and to stop taking approaches that do not include people affected by disasters and climate change. Maisiri encouraged fellow PhD candidates to work in teams, to appreciate diversity, and to be disciplined.

In the panel discussion on My PhD journey and contribution to Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation, the work of Daizy Nalwamba and Zukiswa Poto investigated critical aspects of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. Nalwamba's study in Zambia explored the effectiveness of environmental education in promoting sustainable practices, revealing gaps between knowledge and practical application. Meanwhile, Poto's research in South Africa highlighted the need to prioritise economic resilience in disaster management legislation, advocating for proactive measures to support business continuity and community resilience.

News Archive

Fight against Ebola virus requires more research
2014-10-22

 

Dr Abdon Atangana
Photo: Ifa Tshishonge
Dr Abdon Atangana, a postdoctoral researcher in the Institute for Groundwater Studies at the University of the Free State (UFS), wrote an article related to the Ebola virus: Modelling the Ebola haemorrhagic fever with the beta-derivative: Deathly infection disease in West African countries.

“The filoviruses belong to a virus family named filoviridae. This virus can cause unembellished haemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman monkeys. In literature, only two members of this virus family have been mentioned, namely the Marburg virus and the Ebola virus. However, so far only five species of the Ebola virus have been identified, including:  Ivory Coast, Sudan, Zaire, Reston and Bundibugyo.

“Among these families, the Ebola virus is the only member of the Zaire Ebola virus species and also the most dangerous, being responsible for the largest number of outbreaks.

“Ebola is an unusual, but fatal virus that causes bleeding inside and outside the body. As the virus spreads through the body, it damages the immune system and organs. Ultimately, it causes the blood-clotting levels in cells to drop. This leads to severe, uncontrollable bleeding.

Since all physical problems can be modelled via mathematical equation, Dr Atangana aimed in his research (the paper was published in BioMed Research International with impact factor 2.701) to analyse the spread of this deadly disease using mathematical equations. We shall propose a model underpinning the spread of this disease in a given Sub-Saharan African country,” he said.

The mathematical equations are used to predict the future behaviour of the disease, especially the spread of the disease among the targeted population. These mathematical equations are called differential equation and are only using the concept of rate of change over time.

However, there is several definitions for derivative, and the choice of the derivative used for such a model is very important, because the more accurate the model, the better results will be obtained.  The classical derivative describes the change of rate, but it is an approximation of the real velocity of the object under study. The beta derivative is the modification of the classical derivative that takes into account the time scale and also has a new parameter that can be considered as the fractional order.  

“I have used the beta derivative to model the spread of the fatal disease called Ebola, which has killed many people in the West African countries, including Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia, since December 2013,” he said.

The constructed mathematical equations were called Atangana’s Beta Ebola System of Equations (ABESE). “We did the investigation of the stable endemic points and presented the Eigen-Values using the Jacobian method. The homotopy decomposition method was used to solve the resulted system of equations. The convergence of the method was presented and some numerical simulations were done for different values of beta.

“The simulations showed that our model is more realistic for all betas less than 0.5.  The model revealed that, if there were no recovery precaution for a given population in a West African country, the entire population of that country would all die in a very short period of time, even if the total number of the infected population is very small.  In simple terms, the prediction revealed a fast spread of the virus among the targeted population. These results can be used to educate and inform people about the rapid spread of the deadly disease,” he said.

The spread of Ebola among people only occurs through direct contact with the blood or body fluids of a person after symptoms have developed. Body fluid that may contain the Ebola virus includes saliva, mucus, vomit, faeces, sweat, tears, breast milk, urine and semen. Entry points include the nose, mouth, eyes, open wounds, cuts and abrasions. Note should be taken that contact with objects contaminated by the virus, particularly needles and syringes, may also transmit the infection.

“Based on the predictions in this paper, we are calling on more research regarding this disease; in particular, we are calling on researchers to pay attention to finding an efficient cure or more effective prevention, to reduce the risk of contamination,” Dr Atangana said.


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