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DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS researchers receive awards from the NSTF
2008-06-04

The recipients of the two awards are, from the left: Prof. Jan van der Westhuizen, UFS Department of Chemistry, Dr Susan Bonnet, UFS Department of Chemistry, Prof. Thinus van der Merwe, FARMOVS-PAREXEL, Prof. Maryke Labuschagne, UFS Department of Plant Sciences, and Prof. Ken Swart, FARMOVS-PAREXEL.
Photo: Lacea Loader

  

UFS researchers receive awards from the NSTF   

The University of the Free State (UFS) last week received two prestigious awards from the National Science and Technology Forum (NSTF) during its tenth gala-awards ceremony held in Kempton Park.

Prof. Maryke Labuschagne from the Department of Plant Sciences at the UFS was the female recipient of the research capacity-development award over the last ten years. She received the award for her successful mentoring of black researchers and students. The award, sponsored by Eskom, includes a prize of R100 000 which will be used for research purposes.  

A team consisting of Prof. Jan van der Westhuizen and Dr Susan Bonnet from the Department of Chemistry at the UFS and Prof. Kenneth Swart and Prof. Thinus van der Merwe from FARMOVS–PAREXEL received the innovation award for an outstanding contribution to science, engineering and technology from either an individual or a team over the last ten years.
 
Prof. Labuschagne, an expert in the field of plant breeding and food security in Africa, received the award for her contribution to the training and development of black students and researchers in this field. Various black students successfully completed their postgraduate studies under her guidance at the UFS during the past ten years, with positive results.

Research by her South African students has led to a firmly entrenched research relationship between the Agricultural Research Council (ARC) and the UFS, while research by her local and international students has culminated in no less than 82 publications over the last decade.

It has also led to the establishment of collaboration agreements with universities and research institutes in Malawi, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania – among others with the University of Malawi where Prof. Labuschagne and her students are involved in the International Programme in the Chemical Sciences (IPICS) of the Uppsala University in Sweden. The project focuses on the study of genetics and chemistry of tropical roots and tuber crops in Malawi. This has led to collaboration with international research organisations and has generated overseas funding.

The combined team from FARMOVS–PAREXEL and the UFS won an award for the synthesis of drug analogues used as reference products during the analysis of the drug concentration in blood, from existing and new drugs registered nationally and internationally.

The project resulted in capacity building in synthetic organic chemistry, mass spectrometry and chromatography: Five master’s degrees were completed, seven are in progress, and six postgraduate students commenced with Ph.D.’s.

The skills transferred during this project are already being applied to examine the properties of indigenous medicinal plants as part of the recently established UFS novel drugs and bioactive compound cluster.

Applied Biosystems, the Canadian manufacturer of mass spectrometers, donated equipment to the value of more than R10 million for this project. As a result the UFS is one of the few universities in the world that can offer postgraduate training in bioanalytical chemistry.

Prof. Hendrik Swart, head of the Department of Physics at the UFS, and Dr Martin Ntwaeaborwa, senior lecturer at the Department of Physics were finalist in the research- capacity developer and black-researcher categories respectively.
The NSTF awards gives recognition to the outstanding contributions of individuals and groups to science, engineering and technology. This includes all practising scientists, engineers and technologists across the system of innovation, including, for example, teachers and students in mathematics, science and technology. The NSTF represents government, science councils, professional bodies, higher education, business and civil society.

Altogether nine individuals and three organisations were presented with the NSTF Awards trophy by the Minister of Science and Technology, Mr Mosibudi Mangena.

Media Release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Assistant Director: Media Liaison
Tel:  051 401 2584
Cell:  083 645 2454
E-mail:  loaderl.stg@ufs.ac.za
4 June 2008

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