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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

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Community of Qwaqwa gives Prof Petersen a warm Basotho welcome
2017-05-16

 

 Description: Prof Petersen with Basotho hat and blanket Tags: Prof Petersen with Basotho hat and blanket

 Prof Francis Petersen, Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the University of the Free State
Photo: Ian van Straaten

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Various stakeholders pledged their support to the newly-appointed Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the University of the Free State (UFS), Prof Francis Petersen, during the first in a series of welcoming events that was held at the Qwaqwa Campus on Thursday 11 May 2017.

A message of support and welcome from the Paramount Queen of the Bakoena Royal Council, Mofumahadi Mathokoana Mopeli, took everybody in attendance back three decades to the time when the campus was first established.

“The Qwaqwa Campus of the then University of the North was created to swell this area and the broader Eastern Free State with intellectual capacity,” she said.

“It is with this in mind that we encourage you, Prof Petersen, to continue upholding the best of your predecessors. Search for what they could not achieve and learn from that. Traditional leadership in this area will always be a friend to the university,” she added.

Description: Community of Qwaqwa gives Prof Petersen a warm Basotho welcome Tags: Community of Qwaqwa gives Prof Petersen a warm Basotho welcome

Prof Petersen received a warm Basotho
welcome from Morena Thokoana Mopeli and
Paramount Queen Mofumahadi Mathokoana Mopeli of
the Bakoena Royal Council. With them is
Mrs Cheslyn Petersen.
Photo: Thabo Kessah

The Thabo Mofutsanyana Education District was represented by the Acting District Director, Lindiwe Mabaso, who expressed the district’s pride in being associated with the university.

“Our district is excelling in Mathematics and Science, and this can be attributed to the educators that we get from the Qwaqwa Campus. We are proud to say that we are number one nationally when it comes to Mathematics and Science, and this is through the support we get from the campus. Our schools will continue to be centres of excellence under the new leadership of Prof Petersen,” she said.

Staff and students weigh in

Both Nehawu and Uvpersu expressed their optimism in working with Prof Petersen.

Branch chairperson of Nehawu, Teboho Pitso, said the union appreciated the fact that Prof Petersen was taking over the leadership of the institution at a very difficult time, both institutionally and nationally.

“As workers, we are faced with a lot of challenges and we hope that none of us will be retrenched under your leadership,” he said to an appreciative audience consisting of various internal and external stakeholders.

Acting Chairperson of UVPERSU, Khethiwe Biyo, said the workers’ union was happy that Prof Petersen believed in teamwork.

“Your commitment in working with us is appreciated. We look forward to learning from you about institutional innovation,” she said.

Students were represented by the Qwaqwa Campus SRC President, Njabulo Mwali, who expressed the need for a deeper and detailed transformation process.

“Your expertise and skills have set you above all other aspirant applicants for this position, and we hope that we will learn a lot on this journey,” he said.

“We at the UFS are actively, intentionally,
and continuously engaged in promoting
diversity.”

"Ensure fairness" 

In his response, Prof Petersen emphasised the importance of inclusivity and innovativeness. He said, “Staff and students at the three sites of learning must do all they can to ensure that the UFS realises its goal of being an inclusive institution, one that provides equal access and opportunities to everyone, makes a conscious effort to prevent discrimination, and ensure fairness.”

“Being committed to inclusivity means that we at the UFS are actively, intentionally, and continuously engaged in promoting diversity. This diversity is expressed through our people and through the curriculum, and in the way we work with our communities to promote awareness, empathy, and understanding of the complex ways individuals interact. As you know, our ultimate goal as a university is not only to educate young people up to the point that they graduate. What they learn during their time with us should help shape them into people who can think innovatively in order to address the challenges that face us in the 21st century,” he said.

The Qwaqwa Campus Chorale and the award-winning choir from The Beacon Secondary School in Phuthaditjhaba provided the entertainment.

Similar events will respectively be hosted on the South and Bloemfontein Campuses on 18 and 19 May 2017.

 

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