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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Graduates encouraged to use their knowledge to the benefit of SA

2017-06-28

Description: Graduation read more photo 27 June 2017 Tags: Graduation read more photo 27 June 2017

On 26 June 2017, the last day of its mid-year graduation
ceremonies, the University of the Free State conferred
388 master’s and 72 doctoral degrees.
Photo: Charl Devenish

You have the knowledge, which is a big resource, and should use it to the benefit of South Africa. This was the overwhelming message to graduates obtaining their master’s and doctoral degrees at the University of the Free State (UFS).

Their responsibility was emphasised by the likes of Justice Mahube Molemela during the ceremonies in the Callie Human Centre at the Bloemfontein Campus on 26 June 2017. Justice Molemela, Judge President of the Free State Division of the High Court and Acting Justice of the Supreme Court of South Africa, was the guest speaker at the morning and afternoon ceremonies.

The UFS conferred 388 master’s and 72 doctoral degrees on the final day of its mid-year graduation ceremonies, which was the biggest set of ceremonies in the university’s history. The doctorates came from the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences (30), Faculty of the Humanities (15), Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences (9), Faculty of Education (8), Faculty of Health Sciences (5), and Faculty of Theology (5). A total of 5 258 degrees were conferred over six days from 19 to 26 June 2017.

Future dependant on youth
Justice Molemela said the master’s and doctoral graduates have the skills to make a difference. “The future of a nation is largely dependent on its youth playing a meaningful role in creating a strong economy, culminating in a good standard of living for everyone.”

She said they should plough back into their communities and give opportunities to others. “I am certain that if each one of you thinks innovatively in your respective fields, you will find solutions which will eradicate poverty, improve service delivery, and hence our education will advance gender equity, and promote public participation.”

Dr Khotso Mokhele, UFS Chancellor, said these graduates have every reason to hold their heads high, their shoulders square, and walk with a bit of an attitude, as they have distinguished themselves.

Generation of new knowledge
According to Prof Francis Petersen, Rector and Vice-Chancellor, the UFS strives to be a university that is research led. “For me, one of the important aspects about universities which set them apart from other training and vocational institutions is the generation of new knowledge,” he said at a lunch function for PhD graduates on 26 June 2017. He feels it is critically important for them to make a contribution to the country.

Dipiloane Phutsisi, Principal and Chief Executive Officer of the Motheo TVET College in the Free State, also emphasised this. Phutsisi was the guest speaker on 23 June 2017. “Your courage and eagerness to face the future and tell the truth in the midst of this confusion, is highly desired by South Africans.”

Justice Ian van der Merwe, Judge of Appeal at the Supreme Court of Appeal and former Chair of the UFS Council, was the guest speaker at the ceremonies on 22 June 2017. He encouraged graduates from a chapter in the book War and Peace by Leo Tolstoy.

“There is no greatness where there is not simplicity, goodness, and truth (according to Tolstoy). Or maybe more modernly translated: There is no greatness where simplicity, goodness, and truth are absent.”

Click here to see a list of Deans’ and Senate medals awarded.

Graduations ceremonies:

19 June 2017:

Faculty of Education, except educational qualifications in Open and Distance Learning – South Campus
Faculty of Health Sciences, Faculty of Theology, and Faculty of Law (including the School of Financial Planning Law)

“Every one of us, is destined for greatness. In the words of Dr Martin Luther King: Everyone has the power for greatness, not for fame but greatness, because greatness is determined by service.” – Dipiloane Phutsisi (Guest speaker and Principal and Chief Executive Officer of the Motheo TVET College in the Free State)

Photo Gallery
Livestream Footage (morning session)
Livestream Footage (afternoon session)

Photo: Charl Devenish

20 June 2017:

Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences: All Bachelor’s degrees
Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences: All Diplomas and Bachelor Honours degrees

“Graduation marks a start of a new and wonderful journey. During the last couple of years you have not only developed your intellect, but also expanded what I call your social self,” - Prof Francis Petersen, Rector and Vice-Chancellor

Speech: Prof Francis Petersen (morning)
Speech: Prof Francis Petersen (afternoon)
Photo Gallery
Livestream Footage (morning session)
Livestream Footage (afternoon session)

Photo: Charl Devenish

21 June 2017:

Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences: All certificates, diplomas, Bachelor’s degrees, and Bachelor Honours degrees, excluding BCom degrees
Faculty of the Humanities: Social Sciences and Communication Sciences only

“Graduation is one of the most accomplished achievements one can ever experience.” – Justice Connie Mocumie (Guest speaker and Judge of Appeal at the Supreme Court of Appeal)

Photo Gallery
Livestream Footage (morning session)
Livestream Footage (afternoon session)

Photo: Charl Devenish

22 June 2017:

Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences: BCom degrees only
Faculty of the Humanities: All qualifications, except Social Sciences and Communication Sciences

“The question is not if you will make mistakes, but how do you deal with your mistakes? Do you admit them, do you learn from them, and do you grow as a person?” – Justice Ian van der Merwe (Guest speaker and Judge of Appeal at the Supreme Court of Appeal)

Photo Gallery
Livestream Footage (morning session)
Livestream Footage (afternoon session)

Photo: Johan Roux

23 June 2017:

Educational qualifications in Open and Distance Learning – South Campus

“Class of 2017, go and make your own unique contributions but remember to look into your own heart. South Africa needs your skills, your innovation, knowledge, your expertise and creativity.” – Dipiloane Phutsisi (Guest speaker and Principal and Chief Executive Officer of the Motheo TVET College in the Free State)

Photo Gallery
Livestream Footage (afternoon session)

Photo: Charl Devenish

26 June 2017:

All faculties: master’s and doctoral degrees

“Class of 2016/2017 graduates: You are critical thinkers, you can analyze, you can think independently. That is why you managed to successfully complete postgraduate degrees and diplomas.” – Justice Mahube Molemela (Judge President of the Free State Division of the High Court and Acting Justice of the Supreme Court of South Africa)

Photo Gallery
Livestream Footage (morning session)
Livestream Footage (afternoon session)

Photo: Charl Devenish

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