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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Significant support for Student Safety March in Bloemfontein
2017-07-28

 Description: Student Safety March Prof Petersen Tags: Student Safety March Prof Petersen 

SK Luwaca, UFS SRC President; Thapelo Ngozo,
CUT SRC President, and Prof Francis Petersen,
UFS Rector and Vice-Chancellor, during the handover of the
memorandum at the Bram Fischer Building.
Photo: Johan Roux

The University of the Free State (UFS) and the Central University of Technology (CUT) united in a Student Safety Awareness March, which took place on Thursday 27 July 2017 from the UFS Bloemfontein Campus to the Bram Fischer Building.

The peaceful march had a turnout of approximately 1 500 students and staff from both institutions, led by the Student Representative Councils (SRC) from UFS and CUT. The purpose of the march was to hand over a memorandum to the Provincial Commissioner, Lieutenant General Lebeoana Tsumane, who acknowledged it on behalf of Mr Sam Mashinini, MEC for Police, Roads, and Transport in the Free State. The memorandum includes students’ demands regarding safety around student residential areas and general student safety in the city.

Prof Francis Petersen, UFS Rector and Vice-Chancellor, who – together with other members of the senior leadership group – was part of the march, says he is very impressed with the outcome of the march and the participation rate of both staff and students, as well as the joint efforts between the UFS and CUT to arrange the march.

Prof Petersen says, “There are public spaces where our students feel unsafe, and we would like the city and the province to seriously look into that and work with us to try and see if we could make those spaces safe.

A week filled with safety activities
The march was part of the Safety Week taking place from 24 to 28 July 2017, during which the UFS SRC, together with other stakeholders, took part in several activities on and off the Bloemfontein Campus. These included door-to-door visits to student homes and residences on and around campus, awareness campaigns at all the gates of the campus, and a Safety Dialogue held on 26 July 2017 at the Equitas Auditorium on campus.

The aim of the Safety Week was to focus on informing, educating, and encouraging students as well as the Mangaung community at large, to work together in creating a safe environment for students. The week started with the roll-out of an awareness campaign titled Reach Out, which was set to bring students and the community of Mangaung together to help decrease the number of violent crimes faced by students off campus. The communication plan included safety messages, using outdoor billboards, posters on lampposts around the residential student areas, local community radio stations, campus media, and the university’s social media platforms.

 Description: Student Safety March  Tags: Student Safety March  

UFS and CUT students and staff, occupying the streets of
Bloemfontein during the Safety March.
Photo: Johan Roux

Accreditation of off-campus accommodation service providers
Over and above the Safety Week and safety awareness march, the university has initiated a number of other projects as part of its student safety strategy. This includes a process to accredit off-campus accommodation service providers in Bloemfontein who provide accommodation to students. The decision to accredit these service providers comes from a concern by the university management about the safety of students and the conditions under which some of our students live in off-campus accommodation. The accreditation process entails a list of primary requirements, drafted with the cognisance of the Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality and the SRC, in terms of off-campus accommodation to which private providers must adhere in order to be accredited by the university. The requirements are in line with the Policy on the Minimum Norms and Standards for Student Housing at Public Universities (Government Gazette 39238, dated 29 September 2015).

Transport to and from campus
Another project to be initiated on 31 July 2017 is a transport pilot project with Interstate Bus Lines to assist students with transport and access to the Bloemfontein Campus. The route includes various stops in the areas surrounding the campus, as well as a hop-on/hop-off route within the campus.


Released by:

Lacea Loader (Director: Communication and Brand Management)
Telephone: +27 51 401 2584 | +27 83 645 2454
Email: news@ufs.ac.za | loaderl@ufs.ac.za
Fax: +27 51 444 6393


 

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