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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS academics serve high in ranks of Cereal Science institutions
2017-10-10

Description: Cereal Science Tags: Cereal Science

Dr Angie van Biljon, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Plant Sciences at the University of the Free State (UFS), was elected as president of Cereal Science and Technology South Africa (CST-SA) at their bi-annual general meeting, in Pretoria.

Prof Maryke Labuschagne, Professor in Plant Breeding at the UFS and official representative of South Africa in the American Association for Cereal Chemists International from 2007, was re-elected as the South African representative to the American Association for Cereal Chemists. She attends the annual conference in the US as well as the International Association for Cereal Science and Technology (the European counterpart of AACC) regularly. “I use these conferences to report on the research done by the research team at the UFS on gluten protein, baking quality and nutritional value of cereals,” she said.

Prof. Labuschagne was also involved in a training course for the baking industry. 

Both Dr Van Biljon and Prof Labuschagne are involved in research on wheat gluten proteins, which is critical to the baking industry. CST-SA is a platform to disseminate this and other research, not only locally but also internationally. The aim of this society is to advance cereal science and technology both in the public sector and in the industry of Southern Africa.

CST-SA creates an opportunity for staff and
students working on cereals to interact
with the industry. This prevents research
from being just academic and creates
an opportunity to bring the research and the
industry together.

Wheat research not just academic
According to Prof Labuschagne CST-SA creates an opportunity for staff and students working on cereals to interact with the industry. This prevents research from being just academic and creates an opportunity to bring the research and the industry together. This has been very useful for students at the university working on cereals, as they have made presentations at the “New Voices” symposium, a forum for postgraduate students to present their research.

“Through CST-SA we have also, through the years, presented our research on an international level at the annual meetings of the American Association for Cereal Chemists and the International Association for Cereal Science and Technology,,” said Prof Labuschagne.

The science of cereals
CST-SA is an association of organisations and individuals, from both the private and public sectors, who are actively involved in the science and technology of cereals. Its aim is to promote the dissemination of knowledge and information on cereal science and technology through meetings, publications, workshops and other means. CST-SA also organises training courses for the industry. In the past years there was a course for the baking industry and one for the milling industry and also the “New Voices” symposium”.

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