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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Prof Loyiso Jita appointed as UFS Dean of Education
2017-11-22

 Description: Prof Melanie Walker, Research chair into Higher Education gets boost for five more years Tags: Prof Melanie Walker, Research chair into Higher Education gets boost for five more years

Prof Loyiso Jita, UFS Dean of Education
Photo: Johan Roux

The Council of the University of the Free State (UFS) has approved the appointment of Prof Loyiso Jita as Dean of Education during its quarterly meeting held on the Bloemfontein Campus on 17 November 2017.

“Prof Jita has a strong academic background and a good understanding of the higher-education sector. I look forward to working with him and to realise the vision of the university as a research-led, student-centred and regionally engaged university that contributes to development and social justice through the production of globally competitive graduates and knowledge,” says Prof Francis Petersen, UFS Rector and Vice-Chancellor.

“It is indeed a privilege for me to lead a team of committed teachers and researchers in the faculty, providing excellent service to our undergraduate and postgraduate students. I thank the Council and executive management for their trust in me,” says Prof Jita.

In January 2017, Prof Jita was appointed as the Acting Dean of the Faculty of Education at the UFS. He will assume the position of Dean of the Faculty of Education on 1 December 2017.

Prof Jita began his career as a Science and Mathematics teacher, after graduating from Wits University in 1988. He later took up a lectureship position at the University of Zululand, where he was awarded a Fulbright scholarship to read for a PhD at Michigan State University in the USA. In the mid-1990s, he worked as a policy researcher at the University of KwaZulu-Natal where he, among others, helped to compile the submission on the Violation of Educational Rights of South Africans during apartheid, to the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC).

He joined the University of Pretoria (UP) in 2001, after returning from a post-doctoral fellowship at the Northwestern University in Chicago, and was later appointed Director of the Joint Centre for Science, Mathematics and Technology Education (JCSMTE). He left the UP in 2008 for an appointment as an associate professor at the University of South Africa (Unisa), where he later became the inaugural Director of the School of Education. In 2011, he became a full professor and was appointed as the acting Deputy Executive Dean in the College of Human Sciences at Unisa.

In 2012, he joined the UFS as Research Professor in the School of Mathematics, Natural Sciences, and Technology Education. In November 2014, he was appointed as the SANRAL Chair for Science and Mathematics Education. Professor Jita has published many articles on instructional leadership, teacher development and change, Science and Mathematics education, and has presented over 50 papers at local and international conferences. He has also supervised to completion more than 37 master’s and PhD graduates, and is currently the editor-in-chief for the accredited journal, Perspectives in Education (PIE).

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