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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Graduates challenged to fulfil their leadership obligations
2017-12-08


 Description: 2017 December summer graduation Tags: 2017 December summer graduation 

Photo: Johan Roux

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6 December: Morning
6 December: Afternoon
7 December: Morning
7 December: Afternoon

A total number of 1 226 qualifications, including diplomas, certificates, and degrees, were conferred during the two days of the 2017 End-of-Year Graduation Ceremony which took place on the Bloemfontein Campus of the University of the Free State (UFS). Forty doctorates and 109 master’s degrees were awarded. Most doctorates (19) were awarded in the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences which  also conferred the biggest number of master’s degrees (27).

Celebrating excellence
Some of the highlights at this year’s graduation ceremonies were when the university honoured Prof Paul Holloway and Marius Botha with honorary doctorates and Joyene Isaacs with the Chancellor’s Medal. 

Isaacs, Head of the Department of Agriculture in the Western Cape, who was nominated by the Centre for Sustainable Agriculture in the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences for the Chancellor’s Medal, said: “Agriculture is one of those areas people take for granted. With this medal, agriculture can come to the fore. Agriculture is placed in the spotlight and it is important for this country, but also globally, because we look after the food supply. For me agriculture has been a sustainable livelihood but also a career. Everything about agriculture excites me! I hope that through this award I can take agriculture to the next level.”

Prof Holloway, internationally acclaimed expert in the science and technology of surfaces, thin films, and nanoparticles, who received the Honorary Doctorate in Science degree, said: “This award recognises the efforts we (the UFS and the University of Florida in the US) have jointly developed. We introduced the UFS to phosphors and today it (the UFS) has world-wide recognition expertise in this field. We also learnt from them. They brought us technology we did not have before. It was a mutual growth technique and we all benefit from that. If you work together you can achieve remarkable things.”

“It is the greatest honour of my life. I’ve been associated with the UFS for 17 years in the capacity of moderator, examiner and sometimes lecturer.” These were the words of Botha, author and expert in the financial planning circles of South Africa who was nominated for an honorary degree by the School of Financial Planning Law.

Botha told graduates that a qualification in the financial planning field would give you many opportunities. “If you enter almost any financial services organisation in South Africa, you will find senior people there that completed the postgraduate diploma in Financial Planning Law at the UFS,” he said.

During a luncheon that was hosted by Prof Francis Petersen, the UFS Rector and Vice-Chancellor, in honour of these esteemed graduates, he thanked them for the contribution they had made, not only for the UFS, but for advancing science, technology, and the better of society. “The Honorary degrees and Chancellor’s Medal are the highest accolades and recognition that the university can bestow on individuals who have excelled in science or scholarship or have contributed to service to this country. You are exemplary individuals and you make the UFS, our country and the world proud,” he said. 

 Description: 2017 Summer Graduation read more Tags: 2017 Summer Graduation read more 

Photo: Johan Roux

Inspiration for the future
Likeleli Monyamane, a UFS Council member, addressed graduates during the morning ceremony on 6 December 2017. She motivated graduates to walk tall and learn to serve our country. “Finding your voice comes with a responsibility to speak for those who do not have a voice,” Monyamane said. 

Leah Molatseli, who launched South Africa’s first legal e-commerce website, Lenoma Legal, was the guest speaker at the afternoon session on 6 December 2017. “You are going to start afresh. It is going to feel like you know absolutely nothing and it’s ok. You need to make peace with that in order for you to learn. 

“A lot of young people expect instant success when they enter a job. I am 29 and have had three jobs, two side jobs and numerous certificates. But I decided to create my own future. That is what I did with Lenoma Legal. Some people are meant to be ordinary and some extraordinary,” said this young entrepreneur and Kovsie Alumnus.

On the second day of the graduation ceremonies Dr Imtiaz Sooliman, founder and Director of the Gift of the Givers Foundation, challenged the newly graduated alumni to be carriers of hope for Africa. “We need people of skill, spirituality and heart,” he said. 

“How do you want others to believe in you if you don’t believe in yourself? We South Africans, we can make things happen. Believe in yourself,” he said. 

“The best science you can do is for others. The moment you achieve that, you mean something to someone,” he said. 

Prior to dissolving the congregations, Dr Khotso Mokhele, the Chancellor of the UFS, said: “It has taken hard work, commitment, dedication, to walk across the stage. You deserve all of that.” 

Interesting facts of the graduation
Among the graduates at these ceremonies was former Miss World 2014, Rolene Strauss. She received a Bachelor of Medicine and Bachelor of Surgery Degree. 

The Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences is also very proud of the first group of BAgric students who graduated on the Agricultural College Programme. The eight agriculture students all received the Bachelor of Agriculture degree, majoring in Agricultural Management.

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