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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS to award honorary doctorate to Maria Ramos

2004-12-08

The Council of the University of the Free State (UFS) recently approved the awarding of an honorary doctorate to Ms Maria Ramos, Group Chief Executive of Transnet in April 2005. A total of five honorary doctorandi will be honored.

The other doctorandi are Proff Jan Groenewald (D Sc (hc)), Jaap Durand (D Phil (hc)), Sampie Terreblanche (C Dom (hc)) and Anthon Heyns (MD (hc)).

Me Ramos will receive an honorary doctorate in Economics (P hD (Economics) (hc)) for the large contribution she made to the establishment of a prudent fiscal and macro-economic policy in South Africa and hence, to the restoration of the financial credibility of the country in the eyes of domestic and foreign investors. Ms Ramos was the Director General of the National Treasury from 1996-2003.

She obtained the MSc-degree in Economics in 1992 from the University of London and was awarded a British Council Scholarship (Helen Suzman award) in the same year and in 1991. During the early nineties she was among others project leader of the ANC’s Macro-economic Research Group and also a member of the team that negotiated chapters on finance in the interim Constitution of South Africa. She was a research associate at the Centre for the Study of the South African Economy and International Finance at the London School of Economics and also lectured at the Universities of South Africa and the Witwatersrand.

“It is a great privilege for us to honor Ms Ramos and the other doctorandi in their different fields of expertise. This once again serves as an example of the UFS’s policy to give recognition to people who excel and make a difference,” said Prof Frederick Fourie, Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS.

Prof Jan Groenewald will receive an honorary doctorate for his life-long commitment to the establishment and development of Agricultural Economics as a subject field in South Africa and in Africa and his various contributions to the UFS. During his career, Prof Groenewald received various awards among others in 1998 when he received the Stals Prize for Economics from the South African Academy for Science and Art and in 1990 when he received an honorary medal from the South African Society for Agricultural Economics.

Prof Jaap Durand will receive an honorary doctorate in Philosophy for his pioneering work on various fields in the South African society. He obtained his Masters degree in Philosophy from the UFS and contributed to almost 60 articles and collections. Prof Durand has a colourful career as academic manager: from professor in Systematic Theology and dean of the Faculty of Theology at the University of the Western Cape to Deputy Vice-Chancellor of the same university. He was the ombudsman of the University of Stellenbosch from 2002-2003.

Prof Sampie Terreblanche will receive an honorary doctorate in Economics for the important role he played, and is still playing, to keep the debate about and the need for socio-economic and socio-political reform in South Africa going. Prof Terreblanche started his career as a lecturer at the UFS. In 1992 the Stals Prize for Economics was awarded to him by the South African Academy for Science and Art. Prof Terreblanche was also a founding member of ASSET, an organisation addressing the problems of poverty, inequality and social injustice in South Africa.

Prof Anthon Heyns, Chief Executive Officer of the South African National Blood Service, will receive an honorary doctorate in Medicine. Prof Heyns is a well-known international researcher in Hematology and recently received a Centenary Medal from the UFS for his strong role and national prominence as expert and leading figure in establishing and developing Hematology at the UFS. He was the first head of the UFS’s Department of Hematology and is also co-editor of the only Afrikaans hand book of Hematology. He serves among others as a council member and member of the executive management of the South African Medical Research Council. On the international front he serves on at least five committees of the World Health Organisation based in Geneve, Switzerland. He has two honorary appointments as professor respectively at the UFS and University of the Witwatersrand.

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel: (051) 401-2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@mail.uovs.ac.za
8 December 2004

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