Latest News Archive

Please select Category, Year, and then Month to display items

High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Agriculture must adapt to change

2008-11-28

At the launch of "50 years of agriculture" at the UFS were, from the left: Mr Corwyn Botha: Chairman: Agri Business Chamber and Managing Director: Cape Agri Group, Mr Motsepe Matlala, President of NAFU, Mr Hans van der Merwe, Executive Head: Agri SA, Prof. Herman van Schalkwyk: Dean: Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences at the UFS, and Mr Sugar Ramakarane, Head: Department of Agriculture, Free State Province.
Photo: Lacea Loader

“The biggest factor driving agriculture today is change. Our major challenge is to adapt to this changing environment.” This was stated by Prof. Herman van Schalkwyk, Dean of the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences at the University of the Free State (UFS) during the recent celebration of the faculty’s “50 years in agriculture”.

Prof. Van Schalkwyk stated that the most important changes include power relationships in supply chains, consumer demand, new products and technology in agriculture, government action and developments in neighbouring states. “At the moment there is very little cooperation between small-scale farmers, small-scale farmers and commercial farmers and farmers and processors. There are also low levels of processing, low levels of value adding and a lack of creative thinking in agriculture," he said.

“This must change – we need comprehensive agricultural support and new business ideas in agriculture. We need better infrastructure, value chain financing and improved institutional support,” he said.

Speaking about agriculture and institutional co-operation in the Free State, Mr Sugar Ramakarane, Chief Director of the Free State Department of Agriculture, said that the UFS plays a vital role in bringing together organised agriculture in the province. “The responsibility of transforming our economy cannot be done by government alone. We need partners like the UFS to assist us with bringing together the two most important stakeholders of the agricultural sector, namely the National Farmers’ Union (NAFU) and Free State Agriculture. You can assist us with harnessing co-operation and providing practical solutions," he said

Mr Ramakarane said that his department is aware of the university’s good work with emerging farmers. “But, I want to encourage the university to help us with skills transfer and the development of the emerging farmers. You can play a vital role in developing a mentorship programme. Yours remains a central and critical role of being torch bearers in guiding the transformation agenda of our country," he said.

In his contribution on the challenges of small scale farmers in South Africa and the role of the university, Mr Motsepe Matlala, President of NAFU, said that unity in organised agriculture and working together with other stakeholders has become even more crucial with regard to the global challenges now faced by the country. “The university should take the lead in guiding all farmers on how to respond to, among others, the global financial turmoil and politics, developments in trade negotiations, food prices, input costs and the availability of energy," he said.

“If the UFS, and more specifically the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, is to continue to play a leading role in academia as well as in the production of research that matters to the growth and development of this country, it must adopt an approach that seeks to harness the capacity of everyone in an inclusive manner. The strides already made in this regard must be applauded,” Mr Matlala said.

Speaking on the future challenges in agriculture and the role of universities, Mr Hans van der Merwe, Executive Head of Agri SA said that South Africa has not spent money on agricultural development in a long time. “We must increase our product capacity in the agricultural sector. Universities must focus on cultivating enough expertise and the skills necessary to manage the resources and capacity needed," he said. In his view, South Africa must also focus on technological advancement in agriculture as this has also been neglected in the past. He urged universities to provide best-practice education and to look at international trends in agricultural training. “That is why we should not only focus our attention on South Africa, but on southern Africa,” Mr van der Merwe said.

In conclusion to the day’s programme, Mr Corwyn Botha, Chairperson of the Agricultural Business Chamber, Managing Director of the Cape Agri Group and former Kovsie stated that: “If you want to be an example of leadership, people around you must do better because you are there. A university should evaluate itself in this context. You cannot create solutions to problems with the same attitude in which the problems were created."

Media Release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Assistant Director: Media Liaison
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@ufs.ac.za
28 November 2008

Back

Economic and Management Sciences

Education

Health Sciences

The Humanities

Law

Natural and Agricultural Sciences

Theology and Religion

Open Distance Learning

Business School

We use cookies to make interactions with our websites and services easy and meaningful. To better understand how they are used, read more about the UFS cookie policy. By continuing to use this site you are giving us your consent to do this.

Accept