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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS is the most integrated campus in the country

2010-01-29

Judge Ian van der Merwe, Chairperson of the University of the Free State's (UFS) Council and Prof. Jonathan Jansen, Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS at the official opening ceremony.
Photo: Hannes Pieterse

“The University of the Free State’s (UFS) Main Campus is the most integrated campus in the country.”

This was said by Prof. Jonathan Jansen, Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS during the university’s official opening on its Main Campus in Bloemfontein today.

Addressing staff and students, Prof. Jansen said that the first-year students in the majority of the residences are now fully integrated on a 50/50 basis. “The majority of our house committees are now also integrated,” he said.

He used the ladies residence Welwitschia as an example. “When I walked into to this residence last year it consisted only of black female students. When I visited them again this year I could not believe what I saw: the residence is fully integrated and there are white and black students living together. This is an example of our young people’s willingness to live together and we must believe in their potential,” he said.

Prof. Jansen said that the UFS does not want to be good because “good is the enemy of great” (from Jim Collins in his book Good to Great). “We want to be great. This is the year in which our staff and students’ lives will change and this university will change as we take the first steps in making the leap from good to great,” he said.

Prof. Jansen said that there have been many developments at the UFS so far this year. “We have attracted some of the best scholars in the country and other parts of the world to this university, and we will be selecting from among them in the next two weeks. We have also attracted some of the best athletes in the country in our first-year class, including some of the best hockey players,” he said.

Prof. Jansen outlined the following as his priorities for 2010:

The phasing in of compulsory class attendance as a way to drastically improve the quality of teaching at the UFS. “This will also enhance our throughput. However, before we can to this, we are going to accelerate the building of larger classrooms to accommodate all our students,” he said.
The appointment of a senior vice-rector in the near future, who will manage the day to day operations of the UFS;
To market the UFS to the best and most promising schools in South Africa. “This will start next week when I will be visiting schools in the Eastern Cape.”
To raise R100 million to enable more students with talent to study at the UFS, and to build an endowment to be proud of for the future of the university;
To upgrade the infrastructure in the residences;
To require every member of the university’s academic staff to publish every year;
To train administrative and support staff so that a world-class service culture can be created which takes every student, every parent and every staff member seriously; and
To insist that the conditions of service of staff working for agencies outside the UFS be improved by increasing the minimum remuneration dramatically and by making study benefits available to them as well. “We will not renew our tenders with outside agencies unless they raise the minimum wage of their staff,” he said.

Prof. Jansen said that he was extremely proud of the Student Representative Council’s (SRC) leadership and what they have achieved so far during their term. He also thanked the staff for their hard work and the excellence they bring to the UFS.

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Director: Strategic Communication (actg)
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl@ufs.ac.za
29 January 2010

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