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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Teacher professionalism and status under Commonwealth radar

2010-03-26

From the left are: Ms Simone De Cormarmond, Chairperson: Commonwealth Foundation; Prof. Jonathan Jansen, Rector and Vice-Chancellor, University of the Free State (UFS); Mr Samuel Isaacs, CEO: SAQA; and Dr Carol Anne Spreen, Lecturer at the University of Maryland, USA).
Photo: Ian van Straaten

International delegates attending the 5th Annual Commonwealth Teacher Research Symposium held at the University of the Free State (UFS) in Bloemfontein this week unanimously agreed that more research still had to be done on issues of recognition, registration and standards affecting teachers and teaching across Commonwealth countries.

This two-day gathering of researchers, officials and representatives of regional international organisations and higher education institutions agreed that issues of teacher migration, the professionalism of teachers, teacher preparation and the use of teaching standards, as well as the comparability and recognition of teacher qualifications should be further researched.

The delegates agreed on the following based on the research and data that were presented and shared with all the participants:

Teacher migration is recognised as an increasing global phenomenon that requires ongoing research in the Commonwealth.
Recognising that inequalities and differences within and across Commonwealth countries exist, and considering that fair and ethical treatment in the international recruitment of teachers is an important cornerstone of the Commonwealth Teacher Recruitment Protocol.

Teacher training, the recognition of teacher qualifications, the professional registration of teachers and the development of professional teacher standards should be actively encouraged through ongoing pan-Commonwealth research.

An increased acknowledgement of the role of the professionalisation of teachers through an improved understanding of teacher qualifications and standards.
There should be a specific research focus on teacher preparation and the use of teaching standards.

An increased comparability and recognition of teacher qualifications across Commonwealth countries should be actively encouraged.
Advocacy of teachers’ rights, effective protection of the vulnerable teacher, and appropriate strategies should be promoted to uplift the status of teachers and teaching as a profession.

The Commonwealth Teacher Recruitment Protocol, amongst other things, aims to balance the rights of teachers to migrate internationally against the need to protect the integrity of national education systems, and to prevent the exploitation of the scarce human resources of poor countries.

Delivering his keynote address at the symposium, the Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS, Prof. Jonathan Jansen, decried the quality of professional qualifications in South Africa.

“We have become very good at manufacturing outcomes. We actually have become very good at giving an impression of having achieved particular outcomes without having achieved them at all,” he said.
“So what does it mean to talk about outcomes in an unequal country with unequal resources? What does it mean to talk about qualifications when we do not trust the outcomes?”

He suggested that the teaching profession should be subjected to a peer review mechanism and that the practice of setting minimum standards should be dealt away with because it results in minimum outcomes.

Dr Carol Anne Spreen, lecturer at the University of Maryland in the USA, proposed that countries should improve the quality of their own teachers instead of importing teachers from other countries.

The research symposium was organised by the Commonwealth Secretariat and hosted by the South African Qualifications Authority (SAQA) and the UFS.

Media Release
Issued by: Mangaliso Radebe
Assistant Director: Media Liaison
Tel: 051 401 2828
Cell: 078 460 3320
E-mail: radebemt@ufs.ac.za
26 March 2010

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